Sev here. Back with some more gambling advice, top picks, and some bets to stay away from for the NFL divisional round. Let’s hop to it.
Quick Advice
Beware of Dogs. It may feel safe and snug to go with the home teams , but watch out for the the ‘dogs this weekend. Road underdogs have posted a record of 32-23 against the spread since ’04. That’s surprisingly efficient.
Exercise caution with the overall 1 seeds in this rounds. Out of the last 11 divisional rounds, atleast one top seed has lost 7 times – well over half.
Confidence in the over. Teams in the divisional round often win big when they do win. More than half the divisional round games were decided by double digits since the 1975 playoffs. Not to mention the over has hit at a 3-1 clip the last two years in the Divisional round.
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The weird thing about the Divisional Round is that it’s almost guaranteed that one Wild Card team will advance while the other three will be eliminated. This being said let’s look at some history to see which of the Wild Card teams to rule out for our bets this week.
The books say that teams coming off a Wild Card WIN of 2 points or less are 1-8 straight up, and only breaking even against the spread since 2003. This is bad news for my two teams to stay away from – the Eagles and the Cowboys. It will be tough for these teams to stay on form after such a taxing outing just a week ago. Only the scrappy 2010 Jets have pulled off this feat in the last decade.
Top Picks
Now that we have identified the teams to stay away from, let’s take a look at my top picks and why betting on these teams is smart money.
The AFC match-ups provide a much more tantalizing preview for bettors. The Chiefs are historically bad at home in the postseason – losing their last 2 home playoff games. They have also been suspect at home against the spread late in the season, going 4-4-1 against the numbers in the last half. With the Colts +5.5 in this one, and 7-3 against the Chiefs in the last 10, it would be a clever move to take Indianapolis to cover.
Chargers v. Patriots on the other side of the AFC playoff tree is another chance for a interesting upset as the Chargers enter Foxborough as a 4-point underdog. This is a popular bet, but if you frequent my blogs you know that I like to side with history and trends. And history is on the side of the New England Patriots. Tom Brady is 7-0 against Phil Rivers, including the playoffs. Bet on the Pats to play mistake-free football, while the Chargers make some costly turnovers.
