Now, before you jump down my throat, I do not mean in terms of importance to the game of hockey. Gretzky is the greatest hockey player ever (even though I disagree with the NHL retiring his jersey.) One way Ovi can best Gretzky, however, is goals. Down just 236, Ovechkin has said he’s “going to try to do it.” Is this a reasonable expectation?
His Scoring Prowess
Alexander Ovechkin is the most gifted scorer in NHL history. He has won the Maurice Richard Trophy (leading goal scorer) seven times, and on his way to winning his eighth. His first time winning it, he scored 65 goals, which is the most goals scored in a season since Mario Lemiuex scored 69 in 1996. This also was not a flash in the pan, as Ovechkin has averaged 47 goals a season over his career, which is including the lockout shortened season in 2011-2012 where Ovi only scored 32 goals. With this scoring pace and being down 236 goals, he can surpass this in 6 more seasons. That leaves a lot of hockey left to be played, and can he stay on the ice long enough?
Ovechkin’s Durability
One of the biggest reasons I think Ovechkin can do it is his ability to stay on the ice. Discounting the lockout shortened season, in which only 48 games were played, Ovi has never played in less than 72 games. This 72 season came in the 2009-2010 season, which Ovi was injured for a short stretch, and then was suspended for two games due to a knee on knee hit. In that season, Ovechkin still scored 50 goals. Players are also playing longer, and guys like Jagr, who was drafted in 1990, played professional hockey until this past season, played in the NHL for parts of 27 seasons, with short stints in Europe sprinkled in. Ovi does not have to play 27 season to get there. He only has to play 20, and there is one reason why he won’t do it.
The Unpredictable Nature of Sports
Having a career reliant on your ability to stay healthy makes judging long term success difficult. To borrow an example from another sport, Tony Conigliaro was a good player, having hit his 100th home run in his age 22 season. That same year, he got his in the face by a pitch, which damaged his eyesight, and he was never the same. Ovi has never had a major injury, but he could go out one night and get his knees taken out from under him. This is the nature of the game, and partially what every professional athlete signs up for.
Will He Do It?
Absolutely. The only reason I could think of to say he can’t is a freak injury. Those aren’t common, and Ovechkin isn’t a small player who will be easily injured by a hit. As father time catches up to him, who knows. As it stands currently, Alexander the Great will surpass 894 goals, the only question is by how much.
