We are now midway through June, which means the fantasy football world is heating up. Lots of dynasty and mock drafts are being done each day to give a clearer picture as to what each players ADP (average draft position) are. We have the meteoric risers such as David Johnson and we have players plummeting to the earth such as Todd Gurley. Let’s take a look at nine players whose ADPs may be too high. Fantasy football busts. All ADPs are according to https://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp/standard/12-team/all
Running backs- Todd Gurley (2.01) Dalvin Cook (2.05) and Derrick Henry (3.12)
Todd Gurley
If you had Todd Gurley on your team last year, there is a 100% chance that you made the fantasy playoffs. He was the focal point of a dominant Rams offense that was one of the best in all of football. However, later in the season, he suffered a knee injury and was not the same player during the playoffs. The Rams swore that Gurley was fully healthy during the playoffs. However, in the Super Bowl, Gurley ran a whopping ten times for….. 35 yards.
If Gurley was truly 100%, then why not give him north of twenty touches in the Super Bowl like they had done all regular season. Additionally, the Rams spent a draft pick on Darrell Henderson, who currently has an ADP of 7.05. If you plan on using a high draft pick on Gurley, then handcuff Henderson just to be careful. Personally, I am not touching Gurley until the middle of the third round.
Dalvin Cook
Similarly to Gurley, concerns regarding Dalvin Cook stem from injuries. The Viking has appeared in just 15 games over two seasons because of injuries. He played in just four games due to a torn ACL during his rookie season and appeared in eleven games last year. The Vikings’ offensive line was one of the worst in football last year, which obviously does not help. Cook playing less than 50% of the games he was eligible to play in his career simply scares me.
I think your RB1 needs to be a no-doubt lock to perform every week, which Cook has not proven he can do. If you plan on spending an early second round pick on Cook, then I would recommend drafting multiple backs early in the draft. Also, the Vikings drafted Alexander Mattison (13.06) who I would handcuff later in the draft. I would not draft Cook until the beginning of the fourth round.
Derrick Henry
While it is easy to remember Henry’s breakout performances the Giants and Jaguars, Henry’s overall production last season was disappointing. Eight of the 16 games Henry played in, he totaled less than ten PPR points. If you take out the two monster games, then he would have averaged just 7.65 PPR PPG, which is barely good enough an RB2. It is possible that Derrick Henry has a monster season, but there is more data from last year to support the hypothesis that Henry will be a total disappointment for owners who take him in the early third round.
Considering Henry is paired with Dion Lewis and is touchdown reliant, his PPR value is weaker considering he catches very few passes and is not much without touchdowns- every game Henry scored at least 10 PPR points last year, he scored at least one touchdown. No touchdowns=no production for Henry, which is why I would not draft him until the fifth round in drafts.
Wide Receivers- Amari Cooper (3.03) Sammy Watkins (5.08)
Amari Cooper
Is it safe to say that Amari Cooper is the Derrick Henry of wide receivers? Cooper had two games in which he scored 49.7 PPR points against the Eagles and 38 against the Redskins. Since coming over from the Raiders to the Cowboys, Cooper scored less than ten PPR points in four of the nine games. Personally, I am not comfortable drafting Cooper as my WR2 or even my flex. I want someone who I know will consistently produce from a week-to-week basis, not someone who will get 6.6 points one week and 38 points the next week. Drafting players like Cooper will make setting your lineup from a week-to-week basis will be a nightmare because you really have no idea how he is going to perform each week.
Sammy Watkins
Another injury risk, Watkins missed seven games last season. In four of the games he played in, he scored 5.1 points or less meaning that he exceeded ten PPR points in just six games last year. There are plenty of mouths to feed on the Chiefs offense, even if Tyreek Hill is hit with a long suspension. I do not trust Watkins in the first five rounds and would only consider taking him in the seventh round or later. His production last year and his entire career are simply not enough for me to reach for him in the fifth round.
Quarterbacks- Pat Mahomes (3.04) Carson Wentz (7.10) Kyler Murray (8.07)
Pat Mahomes
Patrick Mahomes was clearly the best quarterback last year. He was the best value in the late rounds of the draft, never had a down week, and was the MVP of fantasy and the NFL. The only reasons I think he can be underwhelming are regression and value. Mahomes had an unbelievable season last year, and it’s hard to imagine him getting any better. I would be shocked if Mahomes isn’t a top three quarterback this season, but with his ADP in the early third round, I think there are better options at running back and wide receiver. I prefer to wait until round seven or eight to nab a quarterback, where you can find good value with guys like Wilson, Brees, and Newton.
Carson Wentz
See the theme in this article yet? If you could not tell, I am not high on players who are injured often. Wentz missed five games last year due to injuries. Wentz had a good year aside from the injuries but is a risky pick as a QB1. If you are going to take him, then have a good backup on your bench should he get injured again. Wilson and Brees are sandwiched in-between Wentz who have better value.
Kyler Murray
For someone who has never stepped foot on an NFL field, Kyler Murray is surprisingly high at 8.07. He can run, but the same offensive line that could not protect Josh Rosen last year is still there. His receiving corps is young, Hakeem Butler and Andy Isabella are rookies, Christian Kirk is entering his second year, and Larry Fitzgerald is not much anymore, unfortunately. I think Murray is a good late round pick to stash on the bench if he has a rookie of the year type season, but drafting him as a QB1 with a lot of question marks is extremely risky.
Tight End- Eric Ebron (6.11)
Tight ends were an incredibly frustrating position last year, but Eric Ebron was one of the bright spots. Jack Doyle was injured, he got Andrew Luck throwing to him, and was in a better system. However, he caught 13 touchdowns last year which is almost certain to regress. If Jack Doyle is fully healthy, then Doyle and Ebron will likely get a similar amount of targets, making it tough to start Ebron each week.
