After getting a team into the College Football Playoff (CFP) the first 3 years, the Big 10 has proceeded to miss the CFP the last two years. 2019 starts the return to prominence for the Big 10 conference. We begin our Big 10 preview with a look at the Eastern Division. So many questions we want answered…and it all starts August 29th.
Big 10 East:
The Big 10 held its first championship game in 2011. At the time, the conference formed the Legends and Leaders division. The Leaders went 2-1 in championship games, with Wisconsin winning both games. In 2014, the Big 10 added Rutgers and Maryland and folded the Legends and Leaders concept. Enter the East vs West. In 5 meetings, the East is 5-0 with Ohio State winning three of those games.
Penn State and Michigan State have also broken through to win a Big 10 championship. To put a cherry on top, Ohio State and Michigan State turned their Big 10 titles into a CFP appearance. Ohio State ultimately won the 2014 CFP National Championship over Oregon.
As we begin 2019, will the trio of Ohio State, Michigan State, and Penn State continue to dominate? Will Michigan finally have lightning on their side? Will the dark horses of Indiana, Maryland, and Rutgers shake things up? Let’s break it all down right now.
Ohio State begins the season with a new head coach. Ryan Day served as the interim coach while Urban Meyer served a three game suspension. Ohio State once again defeated Michigan and added another championship to the trophy case. If not for an embarrassing upset loss to Purdue, Ohio State could have been competing for a National Championship. Nevertheless, the Buckeyes continue to show the world they are still the team to beat in the Big 10. Two questions are big concerns for Ohio State heading into 2019. Can Ryan Day be an effective coach for 12 games and will Justin Fields show us why he was the top rated recruit coming out of high school in 2018? If the Buckeyes answer both these questions with a definite yes, look out for Ohio State to be in contention for another Big 10 Championship.
I related Gus Malzahn’s tenure at Auburn to the physics wavelength graph. I would consider Jim Harbaugh’s tenure at Michigan to resemble something similar. The Wolverines have been on the verge of CFP appearances two of the last three years. Both instances, Michigan controlled its own destiny with Ohio State looming. In 2016, the Wolverines lost to the Buckeyes in double overtime and last year got 62 points hung on them. Michigan has not beaten Ohio State since 2011. Since the year 2000, Michigan holds only three wins total over Ohio State. To tie in the wavelength graph, Harbaugh has tremendous success throughout the season, but it falls apart at the end. To further add to the matter, Harbaugh is 5-7 combines against Ohio State, Michigan State, and Penn State. Entering 2019, the biggest question is can Michigan get over the hump?
The rest of the Big 10 East is looking up at these two teams. Michigan State and Penn State are the only two contenders left in this division. Indiana, Maryland, and Rutgers need a miracle to become Eastern Division Champions. Michigan State is coming off a 7-6 record last year while, Penn State finished 9-4. Mark Dantonio and James Franklin showed us, in back-to-back years, that they can win some big games. Though Sparty fell short to Alabama in the 2015 CFP and the Nittany Lions lost to USC in the 2016 Rose Bowl; we were witnessing something special.
Ohio State can be beaten and the Big 10 can compete on the same level as the Southeastern Conference (SEC). On paper, Michigan State has the advantage in 2019 over Penn State. Sparty returns 17 total starters compared to just 12 for the Nittany Lions. Dantonio adds a little more experience, but Franklin can make things happen too. These two teams hope to crash the party one more time.
Ohio State has the easiest schedule in the division with home games against Michigan State and Penn State. The only tough road game is the rivalry against Michigan from the Big House. As mentioned above, if Justin Fields forms into a leader, the Buckeyes should be sitting pretty at the end of the season. The one trap game for Ohio State is against Northwestern of Friday October 18th. The Buckeyes have lost back-to-back road games against teams they should have beaten soundly. This game comes after the home matchup with Michigan State. Regardless of how the previous week turns out, look for the Wildcats to test the Buckeyes.
Michigan has a favorable schedule too with the only real road test being in Happy Valley on October 19th. Michigan also plays host to Michigan State and Ohio State, as well as non-conference rival Notre Dame. The Penn State game will set the tone for Michigan’s season this year. If Harbaugh and company lose that game, the pressure is on to win out and get to Indianapolis for the Big 10 Championship. If Michigan wins, even with a Notre Dame loss, the Wolverines will again have destiny in their hands the last three weeks of the season. Like Ohio State, I see one trap game for Michigan. It is a road trip to Bloomington to face Indiana on November 23rd.
This game falls before the showdown with Ohio State. Should Michigan be undefeated in the Big 10, the Hoosiers could catch the Wolverines looking ahead. Iowa broke Michigan’s heart in 2016, look for Indiana to accomplish the upset this year.
The path to Indianapolis, for Michigan State and Penn State, is plain and simple. Both teams need to beat Ohio State and Michigan and then win the head-to-head matchup. The one who accomplishes this stands in prime positioning to steal the Eastern Division. Indiana’s path to a bowl game lies in a head-to-head showdown with Maryland or Northwestern. Give the Hoosiers conference wins over Rutgers and Purdue.
Combine that with a 3-0 non-conference and we will see the Indiana in Capitol One Bowl Mania. The ceiling for Maryland will be 4 wins. The Terrapins need a lot of help if they want to become bowl eligible. Rutgers will only manage 3 wins with a basement of only 1 win. The Scarlett Knights have struggled in the Big 10 and that struggle will continue in 2019.
Look for the Big 10 East to come down to a three week race. In those three weeks, the Eastern Division will be settled amongst Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, and Penn State. Until I see it happen again, Ohio State will win the Eastern Division. My sentimental pick is for Michigan or Penn State to win. I would love to see Harbaugh silence the critics and if Franklin wins, it could not happen to a better man.
