The journey continues as we wind down the month of July. We are looking at the Big 12 Conference Preview this week in College Football. We have broken down the first half, now we move onto the second half of the conference. Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Kansas State, West Virginia, and Kansas are the teams left to preview. Let’s get started.
Oklahoma State:
What if I told you Quinn Sharp’s field goal looked good? That is the closest Oklahoma State came to playing in the national championship game. The year was 2011 and it was a cold night in Ames, Iowa. The Cowboys were lining up for a go-ahead field goal against Iowa State. The score was tied 24-24 and junior kicker Quinn Sharp lined up a 37-yard field goal. We all know the kick was missed wide right. Some camera angles show a different story. Did the ball cut inside the right upright? Did it go over the top of the upright? Regardless of what we think, the referees made the ruling and Iowa State would triumph in overtime. Had the field goal been good, Oklahoma State would have headed to New Orleans to play SEC Champions LSU. That would have been a good matchup to watch. As it stands, the Cowboys are still fighting to become Oklahoma’s number one team.
“He’s a man. He’s 51.” That’s right ladies and gentlemen, Mike Gundy enters his 15th year in Stillwater. Gundy has done quite well coaching the Cowboys with six double-digit win seasons. The success against Oklahoma has not equally been there, but Gundy is making strides to take the Sooners down. Oklahoma State has won only one Big 12 championship, and they have never appeared in the Big 12 championship game. It seems like every year the Cowboys put themselves in a position to win the conference, but at the end of the year they run into their big brothers from Norman. On the other hand, Oklahoma State has had numerous opportunities to ruin the Sooners seasons, but that opportunity goes up in smoke too. One of the goals for Gundy and the Pokes; punctuate your season with a win over Oklahoma. No matter which end of the spectrum Oklahoma State is on come November 30th; they want to make sure the leave Boone Pickens Stadium celebrating a Bedlam Game win.
The path to Dallas for Oklahoma State begins with a 3-0 start heading to Austin to play Texas. If the Cowboys lose, the record moves to 7-1 hosting TCU. This is a must win game to set up Bedlam for a spot in the Big 12 title game. Another path to Dallas features an 11-0 record heading into the showdown with Oklahoma. Win or lose the Bedlam game, the Cowboys will be in Dallas with a shot to win the Big 12 championship. We cannot disregard Baylor at home or West Virginia and Iowa State on the road. Those are the three trap games, in addition to TCU, that can put an end to the season. If the Pokes take care of their business in those four toss up games, it comes down to the games against Texas and Oklahoma. Split those two and we will see Gundy lead his team into AT&T Stadium.
Texas Tech:
The most iconic image associated with Texas Tech football has to be Michael Crabtree’s game winning touchdown catch in the 2008 victory over rival and #1 Texas. On the first day of November, Mack Brown and Colt McCoy brought their undefeated Longhorns into Jones AT&T Stadium to face Mike Leach’s undefeated Red Raiders. Texas Tech jumped out to a 19-0 lead and held a 22-3 lead heading into halftime. The Red Raiders had fended off the Texas rally heading into the 4th quarter with a 29-19 lead. With 6 minutes left, Colt McCoy led his Longhorns on an 80 yard drive to take a 33-32 lead. Graham Harrell was not fazed as he led Texas Tech right back down the field. With 15 seconds, however, Texas safety Blake Gideon looked to have caught a deflected pass, but the ball hit the ground and gave the Red Raiders new life. With eight seconds, Harrell threw a deep out to Michael Crabtree at the three yard line. Crabtree was guarded by two men, but caught the ball, broke a tackle, and scored with one second left. The Red Raiders had pulled off a monumental upset. The celebration was short lived because two weeks later, Texas Tech lost to Oklahoma, which put the Red Raiders out of contention for the Big 12 championship. Though the season ended in disappointment, the Crabtree catch will live in Texas Tech and NCAA football history forever.
Since the 2008 season, Texas Tech has struggled to compete for a Big 12 championship. The Red Raiders have averaged three wins in the conference over the last 10 years. They have also missed the bowl season six times in the last 10 years. Tommy Tuberville and Kliff Kingsbury tried their best to duplicate what Mike Leach accomplished, but it never took off. The Red Raiders have only managed four wins against Oklahoma and Texas since 2008. Texas Tech has not won eight or more games since 2013. Matt Wells will get his opportunity to bring back the 2008 magic. Wells comes to Texas Tech after the Red Raiders chose not to retain Kingsbury. Wells coached at Utah State for six years. He hoped to not miss a beat stepping into a power 5 conference.
Texas Tech begins their season with two cupcake games against Montana State and Texas El-Paso. They then travel to the desert to take on Arizona. That game will be a toss-up and could make the difference in a bowl appearance or not. After the showdown out west, the Red Raiders play both Oklahoma schools back-to-back. If you lose both of those games, as well as Arizona, that brings the record to 2-3. Mix in a win against Kansas, West Virginia, and Kansas State and that brings the record to 5-6. The Red Raiders close out the season at Texas, the Friday after Thanksgiving. That will be a huge came not only to get bowl eligible, but to put an end to Texas’ national championship hopes if the Longhorns enter undefeated or with one loss. Texas Tech can get bowl eligible before the Texas game by defeating Baylor and Iowa State. Those two games will play a big role in whether Texas Tech goes bowling. We could also give them a win against Oklahoma State, but I feel Gundy and the Pokes have the advantage in that matchup. The goal for conference wins is set at four. If you win four conference games and your two cupcake non-conference games, that gives you six wins. Texas Tech can defiantly register more wins, it just depends on how coach Matt Wells leads this team. Can he be successful in the Big 12, like he was in the Mountain West?
Kansas State:
For only the second time in the last 29 years, Kansas State has themselves a different head coach. Bill Snyder came to Manhattan in 1989. He led the Wildcats to their first bowl game in 1993. Kansas State finished with nine wins and won the Copper Bowl over Wyoming. Five years later, Snyder helped the Wildcats win their first Big 12 Northern Division title. Kansas State lost the Big 12 title game to Texas A&M. Two years later, the football gods wrote a similar story as Kansas State advanced to the Big 12 title game, but lost to eventual national champions, Oklahoma. It was not until 2003 that the tenure of Bill Snyder came full circle. The Wildcats won their third Northern Division championship and found themselves playing Oklahoma again. This time Kansas State demolished the Sooners 35-7. Kansas State had won their first ever Big 12 conference championship. Coach Snyder would step away from football in 2006 and did not return until 2009. Upon Snyder’s return, the Wildcats began to accumulate win after win. Kansas State won the 2012 Big 12 Championship and advanced to a bowl game eight of the next 10 seasons. Snyder finally decided to hang it up after last year when the Wildcats missed a bowl game finishing 5-7.
Kansas State chose to hire former North Dakota State (NDSU) Head Coach Chris Klieman. During Klieman’s time at NDSU, the Bison won 4 national championships in five seasons. Like Matt Wells at Texas Tech, the challenge for Klieman will be can he win at a power 5 level? Klieman has the luxury of returning quarterback Skylar Thompson. Thompson threw for 1,391 yards and 9 TDs. At NDSU, Klieman was able to turn quarterback Easton Stick into one of the best quarterbacks in the FCS. If Klieman can transform Thompson, this Wildcats offense will be a force to be reckoned with. Kansas State also return eight starters on defense, including leading tackler from last year, Da’Quan Patton. The Wildcats have the pieces to be a sleeper in the Big 12 this year.
Kansas State opens their schedule with wins over Nicholls State and Bowling Green. The Cats then travel to SEC opponent, Mississippi State. The Bulldogs won last years meeting 31-10. Kansas State can be 2-2 hosting Baylor on October 5th. This game starts a three game home stand with games against TCU and Oklahoma to follow. Best case the Wildcats are 4-3 heading to Lawrence to play their rivals in Kansas. The Jayhawks have not beaten Kansas State since 2008. If the status quo remains unchanged, the Wildcats will win that game and be one game away from bowl eligibility. Even with a loss to Texas, Kansas State can find a win against West Virginia, Texas Tech, and Iowa State. If the Wildcats enter the Kansas game 2-5, then their backs will be against the wall. With the snowball running downhill, the Jayhawks could end the 10 game losing streak. The three game home stand before the Kansas game will be the make or break stretch of the 2019 season. There are a lot of possible records should Kansas State start the year 2-5. The Wildcats can be anywhere from 5-7 to 2-10 with a 2-5 start. In two of those scenarios, the Wildcats are defeated by Kansas. The Wildcats have a favorable back half of the schedule but will need to do their work in the first half to make it all pay off. If the first half of the schedule proves troublesome, the Wildcats could miss a bowl game for the second straight year.
West Virginia:
Do you know what the most forgotten game is in college football? Everyone has their answer, but mine is the 2012 Orange Bowl. This game followed the 2011 regular season. Clemson had won their first ACC Championship under Dabo Swinney and the Tigers were poised to take the next step. West Virginia finished the season 9-3, under first year head coach Dana Holgorsen. The two teams met in Miami with aspirations of carrying momentum into the 2012 season. The game quickly showed the viewing audience it was going to be a shootout. The Mountaineers overcame a 17-14 1st quarter deficit and scored 35 points before halftime. West Virginia added 21 second half points and finished off the Tigers winning the game 70-33. This game gets lost in the fold due to Clemson’s 2 national championships and the fact that West Virginia has not returned to a BCS or New Year’s Six game since. New Head Coach Neal Brown plans to change this.
Coach Brown comes to Morgantown after a successful four years at Troy. After a 4-8 record in year one, Brown led the Trojans to three straight bowl games. Troy also registered double digit wins in those three seasons too. Coach Brown culminated his time at Troy with a Sun Belt championship on 2017. He also shared the Sun Belt Eastern Division championship last year with Appalachian State. This is our third team with a new head coach and the third instance where a coach steps into a power 5 conference. Brown will have to restructure the offense with no Will Grier. The Mountaineers offense is also without leading receivers David Sills, Gary Jennings, Marcus Simms, and Tevon Wesco. West Virginia does return a stable of running backs that can help the offense until the quarterback becomes comfortable running the offense. The Mountaineers will use four different running backs to try and jump start the offensive performance through the first three or four weeks.
West
Virginia opens with two tough non-conference games against Missouri and NC
State. The best-case scenario is to
enter the Kansas game 2-1. The
Mountaineers can win that game against the Jayhawks and be 4-3 heading to Waco
to face Baylor on a Thursday Night.
Those Thursday night games typically favor the home team, so we will
give them a loss. The Mountaineers are
not hurt by this loss because wins over Texas Tech and Kansas State puts them
in a bowl game. NC State, Kansas, and
Iowa State will provide the biggest influence on the 2019 season. I do not see West Virginia losing
back-to-back home games which means they will split the meetings between NC
State and Iowa State. The Baylor and TCU
games at the end of the season could put the Mountaineers over the top. West Virginia could still be 4-3 heading to
Baylor, but if they win out or take a loss to Oklahoma State, that is still a
season to be happy about. An eight or
nine win regular season would be an impressive accomplishment by Coach Brown,
and it would show that he is the real deal.
The quarterback situation will be the underlying factor that will
contribute to winning or losing games.
If the Mountaineers excel at the quarterback position, I can see them
winning eight or nine games. On the
other hand, if the quarterback position is a problem, look for the Mountaineers
to finish in the range of five to seven wins.
2016 was the last time West Virginia won 10 games, look for Coach Brown
to bring the Mountaineers back to that plateau.
Kansas:
When you here the University of Kansas what do you think of? Does your mind go immediately to Bill Self and the men’s basketball team? What if I told you Kansas experienced some bright spots in football under head coach Mark Mangino? The year was 2007 and Kansas sat 11-0 and ranked number 2 in the BCS standings. The Jayhawks faced 10-1 rival Missouri for a spot in the Big 12 Championship game. The clock struck midnight as the Tigers defeated Kansas 36-28. Kansas picked themselves up off the deck and defeated Virginia Tech in the Orange Bowl. How do you follow up a dream season? The following year Mangino led his Jayhawks to a 7-5 record including victories over Kansas State and Missouri. Kansas punctuated their season with a berth in the Insight Bowl. The Jayhawks defeated Minnesota 42-21. The 2008 season was the last time Kansas made a bowl game. It was also the last time Kansas won multiple Big 12 conference games. However, there is a new era starting in 2019. The Mad Hatter has re-entered the coaching realm and hopes to give Kansas football fans something to cheer about.
Whats a Big 12 Conference Preview without two year hiatus from Les Miles. This year Miles returns to college football from LSU to Kansas. Over the course of 12 seasons, Miles led LSU to 114 career victories. Miles also won 2 SEC Championships and the 2007 National Championship. Miles was let go in 2016 after a tough luck loss to Auburn. Miles failed to beat Alabama his last four years as head coach. He also could not get the Bayou Bengals back to Atlanta. Miles takes over a Kansas program that is searching for any positives to hang their hat on. Miles has been a winner everywhere he has coached. He is defiantly the right man for the job to turn Kansas around.
Kansas begins 2019 having ended their 46 game road losing streak last year. The next streak the Jayhawks hope to break is their conference road losing streak. The Jayhawks have not won a Big 12 conference game on the road since 2008. They have also just won three total conference games the last five seasons. Kansas will begin the season 2-0 with a pair of home wins against non-conference cupcake teams. Kansas faces Boston College, on the road, in week three. If Kansas loses this game, they could be 2-5 heading into their homecoming game against Texas Tech. The Jayhawks can win this game and their next game against rival Kansas State. That gets Kansas to 4-5, but the quest to get to a bowl falls short as the Jayhawks finish 1-2 in their last three games. Best case they can beat Boston College, West Virginia, and Iowa State. Believe it or not, best case scenario, Kansas could win eight games this year. The Jayhawks will look to replace their quarterback and need wide receiver depth. They do have leading rusher Pooka Williams returning. The success of 2019 depends on quarterback play and will Les Miles have any rust coaching? Once Miles gets his foundation in place and starts recruiting, Kansas can be a contender in the Big 12. Year one for Miles will be a rough one, but I think 5 wins is something to be proud of if you are a Kansas fan. Should Kansas win their home games, they stand in a good position to make a bowl. On the other hand, if Kansas struggles at home, but finds a way to steal road games, that can also result in a bowl game appearance. It will be a struggle in year one for Les Miles, but I am not counting him out. Look for Miles to surprise the Big 12 and make a bowl game this year. 2020 and 2021 will be the years we start to see the pendulum swing and Kansas be a big fish in the Big 12 conference.
