The year was 2005 and the University of Southern California (USC) was on top of the college football world. The Trojans has just defeated Oklahoma in the 2004 BCS National Championship game. USC, on a quest for a 3 peat, finished the 2005 regular season 12-0. The Trojans found themselves in their second straight BCS National Championship against Texas. USC held a fourth quarter lead 38-26, but Texas was on a mission that night. Heisman runner-up Vince Young scored with four minutes left to cut the lead to 38-33. On their next possession, USC faced a fourth and 2 with 2:03 left on the clock. The Trojans decided to go for it and came up short, turning the ball over on downs. The Vinsanity of football took his team down the field and with 26 seconds on the clock, the Texas offense faced a fourth and 5 from the 9 yard line. Young took the snap and ran to the corner of the endzone for the game winning touchdown. Texas dethroned the USC dynasty. Despite sending a team to the College Football Playoff (CFP) two times, the Pac-12 has not won another championship. It gets worse for the South, because since 2011, they have only won the Pac-12 championship game once. 2019 brings hope to the South division. The South division members look to shift the paradigm in their favor.
The only team to win the Pac-12 championship from the South are those USC Trojans. USC had a forgetful 2018 finishing 5-7. It was just the third time in the last 20 years that the Trojans missed the postseason. USC went 6-6 in 2001 and were on probation in 2010. Despite going 6-6 in 2001, the Trojans were not selected to participate in a bowl game. When you coach at USC, you are expected to compete for a national championship. Anything less usually does not end well. Clay Helton survived last year and is poised to return USC to the caliber they played at from 2002-2009.
The Trojans open with two conference games at home against Stanford and Utah, before traveling to Seattle to face Washington. USC can enter the bye week with two or less conference losses and they can feel good about their potential to win the South. Even with a loss to Notre Dame, the Trojans will enter the UCLA game 8-3. The Battle for the Victory Bell could be for a spot in the Pac-12 championship game. If USC defeats Stanford or Washington it sets up the Notre Dame rivalry for an inside track to the CFP. The Trojans have an easier second half of the season. If they take care of their business in the first half, the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum could be partying on November 30th.
The crosstown rival to USC is UCLA. The Bruins had a miserable 2018 season as well. First year head coach Chip Kelly saw his team finish 3-9 after starting 0-5. UCLA has not won the South since 2012. They represented the South in the first two championship games but could not defeat their North opponents. The Bruins put together back-to-back double-digit win seasons in 2013 and 2014. Despite the 2 year success, UCLA fell back to being mediocre the next four years. Chip Kelly did a phenomenal job at Oregon from 2009-2012. When Kelly begins to recruit his players and sets his foundation the Bruins team will be tough to stop.
UCLA starts 2019 with a road game against Cincinnati on Thursday night. The Bearcats upset the Bruins last year in Los Angeles. Assuming UCLA wins that game, they will be 2-1 heading into their first conference game. Add in a loss to Washington State and back-to-back wins brings the Bruins’ record to 4-2. UCLA then travels to Stanford on Thursday night. UCLA, with just one loss in conference, can afford to take a loss in this game. If they do, the schedule is favorable to get to the USC rivalry at 7-3 with a 5-2 conference record. If USC enters, as I predicted 8-3, UCLA controls their own destiny. A win against USC and then Cal on November 30th means the Bruins are Pac-12 South champions. We stated above how the LA Coliseum could be partying on November 30th. UCLA hopes to bring that party 15 miles north. In 2009, Chip Kelly led Oregon to their first ever Rose Bowl appearance by winning the Pac-10 championship, Kelly looks to bring UCLA back to the Rose Bowl for the first time since 1999. As the song would say “Party like its 1999.”
Apart from USC and UCLA, the rest of the Pac-12 is a jumble. Utah is the dark horse to challenge for the South Division. Kyle Whittingham starts his 15th season at Utah. The Utes won the South last year, so we know they can get the job done. Arizona and Arizona State enter their second years under their new head coaches. Kevin Sumlin and the Wildcats missed a bowl game last year, while Herm Edwards and the Sun Devils advanced to the Las Vegas bowl. It was just three years ago that Colorado completed an 11 year turnaround. The Buffalos had not made a bowl game since 2007 and had not won a division title since 2005. Mike Macintyre won the 2016 Pac-12 South with a 10-2 record. The Buffalos lost the Pac-12 title game and their bowl game to finish 10-4. As 2019 draws near, these four teams look to crash the all Los Angeles dominance at the top.
Utah opens with the Holy War against BYU and in week four travels to USC. The Utes defeated the Trojans last year. After the showdown with USC, Utah hosts Washington State. The only tough games that remain are a road trip to Washington and a home game against UCLA. Utah can win their home games against Washington State and UCLA. Avoid an upset in the finale against Colorado, and the Utes could represent the South division for the second straight year. Arizona State, Arizona, and Colorado all have tough schedules in 2019. The Sun Devils have Michigan State in week 3 then travel to California (Cal) for a Friday night affair. They then begin a 3 game stretch against Washington State, Utah, and UCLA. After those three games, the Sun Devils have USC and Oregon left on the schedule. I can see Arizona State finishing this stretch at 3-2. Time will only tell if that is enough to win the division.
Arizona has tough road conference games against USC, Stanford, and Oregon. Even with wins against Colorado and Oregon State, nothing else is guaranteed. The rivalry game against Arizona State could one again have a spot in a bowl game on the line. The Wildcats needed to beat Arizona State last year to get bowl eligible. Arizona blew a 19 point lead in the fourth quarter and lost by one after a missed field goal.
Arizona hopes to get revenge this year. Colorado enters 2019 with a new coach. Mel Tucker begins his head coaching tenure with the Buffalos. Colorado has a tough schedule against the North Division as they face the top four teams.
This differs from the Arizona schools; in that they only play three. Colorado has not layups on this 2019 schedule. I can give them home wins against Arizona, USC, and Washington. They have the luxury of playing Arizona and Washington at home off bye weeks. USC comes to Boulder on a Friday night. These factors play in Colorado’s favor. Whether or not they win the games is a different story.
The Pac-12 South can come down to the battle for Los Angeles on November 23rd. Depending on who wins the head-to-head matchups throughout the division will determine the next closest competitor. Utah has the easiest schedule, but Coach Edwards and Sumlin have been around the block. They know what it takes to win a division and they will not go down without a fight. Colorado is looking up at all these teams with a new head coach and the toughest schedule in the Pac-12 south. Colorado has already defied the odds, can they do it again. I see the Pac-12 as a two team race, but the rest of the pack can get hot at any time. With the added motivation to defeat the North, look for all six teams representing the South to bring their A game.
