The Ottawa Senators have locked up their last restricted free agent. 22-year-old Colin White’s new contract will pay him $4.75 million over the next six years. White has played 94 NHL games over the past three seasons, collecting 47 points. 2018-19 was his first full season, where he played 71 games and collected 41 points. White was then selected to play for the United States in the World Hockey Championship, where he scored 3 points in 8 games. Although his body of work is small, this is a very fair deal for both White and the Senators. The struggles in Ottawa have been well documented, so having a talented young player on a long-term contract is a step forward.
Even with Colin White’s new contract, the Senators still have almost $11 million in cap space. This is with three players on injured reserve that will likely never play again.
This is key because next season the Senators will need to re-sign defender Thomas Chabot, who is likely to be a cornerstone for the franchise. Forward Brady Tkachuk will be eligible for an extension in two years, and is likely to be payed quite well. It is unlikely, but if the Senators need more cap space, LTIR is an option.
Senators get value
White’s contract compares well with similar ones of its value. CapFriendly’s top two comparable contracts are Christian Dvorak and Alex Tuch. Dvorak also signed for six years, making slightly less than White at $4.45 million per. Tuch signed for the same AAV as White, but for seven years. Statistically, the Senators are getting perfect market value for a player who is still going to get better. In fact, White has a better points-per-game average than both players when they signed. Dvorak scored at 0.45 PPG, while Tuch scored at 0.41 PPG. White has scored at an even 0.5 points-per-game. Ottawa may be getting even more value from this deal.
White is as close to a sure thing as the Senators have had in quite some time at forward. The departures of Matt Duchene, Mark Stone and Ryan Dzingel have opened up plenty of spots up front. A lack of centers could mean that White starts the season down the middle on the top line. His wingers will likely be Brady Tkachuk and Drake Batherson, creating an exciting, albeit young top line. The Senators need goal scoring, and a top line like this could provide plenty.
Next steps
The Senators are now in a very interesting spot. They have a handful of extremely talented young players, and a freshly stocked pool of future draft picks. There are still many questions going forward though, both on and off the ice.
Craig Anderson is projected to once again be the starting goalie, in the final year of his contract. At 38, it’s likely to be his last season in Ottawa. Anders Nilsson will back Anderson up, but Ottawa is not looking at the 29-year-old as their future number one goalie. Currently, their top goaltending prospect appears to be Joey Daccord. The 23-year-old is coming off his final season in the NCAA, where he posted a .926 save percentage in 35 games with Arizona State. He is likely to play in the AHL full time next season, but could be an option moving forward.
On defense, The Senators have two top notch defenders on the left side, in Chabot and Erik Brannstrom. The challenge now is to find optimal defenders to play with them. Currently, it appears as though Dylan Demelo will play with Chabot, while Brannstrom will line up next to veteran Ron Hainsey. Demelo still has some upside, but Hainsey’s minutes need to be managed, and limited at his age. The third pair is likely to be Mark Borowiecki and Nikita Zaitsev, and frankly, there’s not much to say there. Smith is familiar with Zaitsev from Toronto, and should know better than anyone what he has in that player. He can’t play 22 minutes a night, nor should he. Ever.
Up front, there are plenty of holes. Other than the top line, things look fairly bleak. Bobby Ryan is magic beans at this point, given his hand injuries. A healthy season could allow him to score as many as 25 goals, but any lingering pain won’t help his cause. Stocking their prospect pool with more forward prospects will be prudent for Ottawa in the coming years. Colin White’s line will be heavily relied upon for now.
Take the win
Colin White’s new contract is a win for Ottawa. They knew they had to keep their top young forwards long-term, and they’ve locked one of them down. The obvious frustrations with Eugene Melnyk and the lack of an arena deal have clouded over the team and its fans for the past two seasons. Any good news the Senators can get is a win. White’s new contract is definitely that. If Chabot, Tkachuk, Brannstrom and Batherson join White to become the foundation for this team, there is plenty of reason to beleive Ottawa can be a playoff team in the near future. Maybe not this season, but soon.
