Welcome back everyone for another weekly dose of the absolute highest quality of sports writing. When it comes to breaking down just how terrible to Miami Tanks are at football (and my game picks haven’t been too bad either). I turn 26 this Sunday, and it got me to thinking: is this the worst team I’ve ever seen? So far, yes it is. Check out the NFL Week 4 game picks.
The Tanks have been outscored 133-16 through three weeks, and haven’t gotten out of the first half of the first quarter (carry the fraction bar, yes you read that correctly) with even a tied score. There’s a key difference however, they’re literally not trying to win. Then 0-16 Lions and winless Buccaneers teams were simply out-talented, whereas this Tanks squad is actively ducking out of the way of passes on offense.
Anyway, I digress. More things happened last week as well worth noting. Tampa Bay helped Danny Dimes get his first win as a starter, prompting literal advertisements for Carli Lloyd to kick for them. New Orleans showed they’re not entirely helpless without Drew Brees, similar to Kyle Allen going from his old spot in an NFL Play60 commercial to fulfilling the promise in said commercial to take Newton’s job (go look at his quote about Cam’s fashion choices too, it’s totally worth it). The same cannot be said about teams like Cleveland who, shocking to nobody outside of Ohio, are doing Browns things and being dreadful once again.
Pittsburgh isn’t faring much better. If you take away JuJu Smith-Schuster’s 76-yard touchdown (on about a 12-yard slant, followed by some of the worst defensive pursuit angles ever), Mason Rudolph would’ve had a crisp 98 yards passing. Pair that with running into brick walls for 79 yards on 22 carries, and you have a cruel and unusual punishment for fans who sit through those offensive possessions now. One last note from last week, there are now three guarantees in life: death, taxes, and Patrick Mahomes throwing for 300 yards.
I know it’s incredibly difficult to repeat as MVP in the NFL. But Mahomes is putting up numbers and making throws that just haven’t been seen before. Other quarterbacks are trying no-look passes (DeShaun Watson had one this past week) and offenses are trying to catch up to Andy Reid’s creativity. Alright, I’m done being a homer, I’ll get onto Week 4 and my game-winners.
Lay the Points, Lock it in
Kansas City Chiefs (-7)
I lied, I’m not quite done being a homer. Patrick Mahomes is going to play his first regular-season game in a dome as a professional. That sentence should have Detroit’s defensive staff absolutely terrified. The reigning MVP, who can throw for 300+ yards per game in snow and rain, is getting perfect conditions for the first time. Kansas City is going to put up at least 35 points, so the over at 55 looks great as well for a nice parlay, and the Lions simply aren’t equipped to keep this within a touchdown. I’m not saying Detroit hasn’t been surprisingly good. But for everyone saying Patricia is a defensive-minded coach and will be able to slow the Chiefs down, an Alex Smith lead squad went into New England in 2017 against Patricia’s defense and put up 42. Lock this game in.
Houston Texans (-4)
This line is simply a product of Kyle Allen bursting onto the scene last week against *checks notes* Arizona? Really? It was an impressive performance for the young quarterback, but the Cardinals aren’t exactly a stellar football team this season. Does that mean I’m not going to take advantage of the dumb money moving the line to this point, absolutely not? Houston is a playoff contender and just came off a road win against the Chargers. They’re playing good football right now, and their defense is quite a bit better than Arizona’s. I trust everyone to agree with me that Deshaun Watson is an enormous mismatch against Kyle Allen this week, not to mention that Houston is playing at home. This is a no brainer, take the Texans.
Indianapolis Colts (-6.5)
This should go without saying, but do you know when you should buy the half-point hook? That’s right! You always buy the half-point hook. Not that I don’t think it’ll come down to it against Oakland this week, it’s just good advice to protect yourself in general. This will be the Raiders second straight week on the road in a dome, and it’s shaping up to look like a similar result. A run-heavy offense that will feature Marlon Mack (Dalvin Cook last week) and a sure-handed pass catcher in T.Y. Hilton (Adam Thielen last week). Again, they’re going against a pretty stout defense and will more than likely make Derek Carr throw more than he wants too, and if Oakland isn’t running the football, they’re not going to be in a position to win. Indianapolis has a chance to stick around the AFC South race, so they’ll be playing inspired football to keep pace.
Take the Points, Make Money
Minnesota Vikings (+2)
As I mentioned, the Vikings are coming off a thumping of the Raiders and Dalvin Cook is back to top form. Granted, Chicago has an excellent defense, but they don’t have a good offense. Minnesota is more than equipped offensively to not allow the Bears to just sit on the ball when they’re in possession. It may be a lower scoring game. But if it comes down needing points late in the game, the Vikings have the advantage here. Chicago’s backfield situation has been completely mismanaged so far by Matt Nagy. Trubisky has shown no real ability to lead scoring drives on a consistent basis. Sure, they beat up a toothless Washington team last week. But in no way should they expect that kind of game against Minnesota. I wouldn’t mind even taking the money line here, but getting two points doesn’t hurt.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+3)
Quick trivia question: when was the last time an NFL team had zero sacks and zero takeaways through three games? The answer WAS never. The answer now is the Denver Broncos. In the eloquent words of wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders, Denver is “living in a world of suck”. This is not the time you want to be playing against an oddly Minshew-mustache motivated Jacksonville team. Regardless of his actual skill level.
The Jaguars just seem to be playing energized football right now (even with the Jalen Ramsey situation). Quite honestly, I would want Gardner Minshew quarterbacking my team instead of Joe Flacco anyway. He has 5 touchdown passes and only 1 pick compared to Flacco’s 2 and 2. I’d also rather have Leonard Fournette than the committee of Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman. I just don’t see Denver winning, let alone covering.
Buffalo Bills (+7)
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I can feel the intensity of the eye-rolling and scoffing from here. This is purely a hunch on my part, but it’s got some reasoning to it. The Bills are off to a great start. They’re playing at home (which will feature an even more motivated Bills Mafia than ever before) and the Patriots always seem to have one divisional game a year that is close or that they lose for no reason. It’s not going to be from Miami or the Jets, and Buffalo is playing good football right now. Josh Allen is again using his arm and his legs effectively so far. Devin Singletary should be back in action. The Bills also have a top-five defense so far, and will no doubt put the pressure on Tom Brady. Pair that with a struggling Patriots running game, and there’s a good chance this game remains competitive throughout. Also, there’s a bonus of something hilarious being chucked on the field.
College Bonus Picks
Another week, another round of bonus picks! My Jayhawks got awfully close to taking down West Virginia last week, and that’s a great sign. They’re playing a struggling TCU squad and I think they’ll be in line to cover the +15.5 points at the very least. Clemson did what they needed to do in essentially a bye week and stomped Charolette by 42 points. They’ll have a feisty North Carolina team this week on the road, so covering -27 is going to be a challenge, but I think they’ll ultimately accomplish that. My biggest surprise of the week was Wisconsin’s complete and utter dismantling of Michigan.
Jim Harbaugh is feeling some serious pressure right now, and for good reason. I thought Wisconsin would win the game. But to win in such a dominating fashion that Johnathan Taylor sat most of the second half and STILL had 203 yards and 2 touchdowns is remarkable (Wisconsin ran for 359 yards. RAN!). We have a guest on the Twitter selections this week in my best friend Max Olson. I mentioned his podcast last week Fantasy Football Friends Forever, so go check out his selections (more importantly his podcast, seriously people, it’s really good stuff) as well as mine, but for now, here are my bonus picks:
- Iowa -23
- Wake Forest +7
- Texas A&M -23
- Iowa State +3
- Worst Game of the Week: Akron -7 vs UMass
That wraps up this edition of My Week 4 game picks! Stay posted for my Week 4 Start Them/Sit Them choices coming very soon! Thanks, everyone again for reading. If you have your own pick (or if you disagree with mine, or just, in general, want my advice on a game or two) please find me on Twitter @Rellihan51 and we can hash things out. These are the NFL Week 4 Game picks.
Until Next Week!
Nick Rellihan
