Week 1 of the NFL is upon us. As I’ve already shown you…the public doesn’t win, in general, when up against the mighty sportsbook. Let’s dive into the lines for the week and examine the public money report, as of Tuesday 9/3.
Packers @ Bears
With this being the first game of the much anticipated 100th season of the NFL, there will obviously be a few eyes on this one…and dollars for that matter.
This divisional matchup is already the most bet ticket of the NFL’s Week 1 card. Boasting almost 10,000 tickets, with the majority currently on the Packers. Only 43% of the public is willing to lay the points with the Bears, a line that currently stands at -3 (DOWN from an open of -4). The Packers are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 Thursday Night Football showings, while the Bears are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games against the NFC North.
This pick for me comes down to what we know vs. what we do not know. We know Chicago has a stout defense. We know they have an offense that can produce. There’s too much for me that we don’t know about the Packers on the both sides of the ball. I’m a Packers believer this season, but not in this one.
Pick: Bears -3
Chiefs @ Jaguars
So…there is a thing in the gambling world called the “smell test”. It’s a very weird way of things that sometimes just stand out in a WTF sort of way. The line on this game does not pass the smell test to me. The public money report on this game shows a WHOPPING 78% of the bets in on KC -4. That’s not a typo…KC -4! What?
The Chiefs are predicted by some to be the odds-on favorite out of the AFC. Patrick Mahomes is coming off of what could quite possibly be one of the best seasons of all time for an NFL QB. The over/under win total for the Chiefs this season is 10.5 and their odds to win the AFC are at +350, second to the New England Patriots. Superbowl odds are at +800, second best in the league.
Something just doesn’t seem right here. It simply doesn’t pass the smell test. This line should be AT LEAST 7, if not closer to 10 points, regardless of where this game is being played. Yes, the Jags have Nick Foles…but do they really have what it takes to get into a shootout with the Chiefs? Hmmmmm…the smell test.
Pick: Jaguars +4
49ers @ Bucs
This, is by no means the sexiest game of the weekend. But that’s exactly why we need to pay attention to it! According to the public money report as of today, only 39% of the tickets are coming in on the Bucs. Possibly the even bigger stat is that those 39% of tickets only amount to 13% of the total money in on the game (remember all of that “smell test” talk earlier?!?!).
Those percentages are too juicy to ignore. The Bucs should have a pretty high flying passing attack with Jameis Winston at the helm. After all, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin seem to be pretty high on everyone’s fantasy cheat-sheets, so expect them to get theirs in this game.
The game is currently set at a pickem with an O/U of 50. Should make for an interesting afternoon match up down in the Ray Jay on Sunday.
Pick: Bucs @ Pickem
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