Eric Gordon’s freshly-inked three-year, $54.5 million extension ensured that the Houston Rockets’ core will be together for at least two more seasons. Gordon originally signed in the binge-tastic summer of 2016 when the NBA’s salary cap rose dramatically. He came to Houston as part of an effort to build a roster for Mike D’Antoni that would feature three-point shooters all over the floor. After making 680 3-pointers in the last three seasons on 36.4% accuracy. Gordon has more than lived up to his reputation as a dead-eye shooter. At 30 years old. However, it is fair to wonder if he is worth a contract extension that will pay him an annual average of $18.2 million.
Was Eric Gordon’s contract extension worth it?
Eric Gordon’s Performance
By comparing player performance with a player salary around the league, I determined a model for evaluating how much a player should be paid. According to my analysis, Eric Gordon has contributed 16.5 wins across the last three seasons. His 2015-16 season is also included in the table below. Since he only played 45 games in that season due to injury. The last three years are a better indication of his value.
At an average of 5.5 wins per healthy season, we would expect Eric Gordon to be paid $11.9 million per year. At his peak in 2017-18, Gordon’s performance would have been worth just over $18 million. As you can see from the table, Gordon’s production rate has been around league average (between .086 and .151 wins per 48 minutes; average production rate is .100). His Total Efficiency has been slightly below average, indicating that his role has been slightly heavier than would be optimal.
Can The Rockets Acquire A Better Player?
Given how much Houston depends on Gordon. It is easy to see why some commentators and fans have voiced favorable opinions of the contract extension. If the Rockets place so much weight on Gordon that his efficiency falls below league average. We would expect them to be worse if they replaced him with another guard. Since Houston has no cap room, we know that it would be impossible for them to acquire a superior player to fill Gordon’s roll in free agency.
The Rockets have a long legacy of blockbuster trades. The 2019 offseason provided yet another example with the Chris Paul/Russell Westbrook swap. Is the trade market a viable alternative for replacing Gordon’s production without signing him to an overpriced extension? As currently constructed, the Rockets have only one player at a salary level that would be useful in trading for a superstar – center Clint Capela. Signing Gordon to an extension in the $18 million range provides the Rockets with another trade chip in addition to Capela (or instead of Capela). In this sense, it is justifiable for the Rockets to extend Gordon; keeping Gordon allows Houston to retain the prerogative of trading him later.
Is Eric Gordon’s Extension Worth It?
Despite the benefits occasioned by the extension, it is clear that the extension was an overpay. In order to keep a key player. The Rockets agreed to pay $6.3 million per season more than he is worth. When evaluated in a vacuum, that relationship would make the contract a lemon. When viewed within the context of Gordon’s performance record and the current composition of the team. However, we see that the extension is more justifiable than it appears at first blush. Was Eric Gordon’s contract extension worth it?
Greg is the author of The Basketball Bible, a 1,000-page ebook full of explanations, analysis, and visualization of NBA statistics. His analysis of the NBA appears at his blog, https://greekgodofstats.com/, along with a statistical database of the most accurate and comprehensive statistical model in the NBA analytics community. Follow Greg on Twitter @greekgodofstats and on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/GreekGodofStats/.
