Hello again everyone and welcome back for another edition of my NFL game picks. After last week’s action, we’re down to just two undefeated teams (yes, the Chiefs lost, and got crushed by the new secret weapon of offensive coordinators: halfback dive). We also have Toilet Bowl 2019 on the schedule as Washington takes on the Tanks in Miami. I’m not wasting my time on that game, so don’t get your hopes up. If you had hopes that I would give this game any analysis, just go look at the ESPN projection for the Tanks defense (or check every week, a good source of comic relief). Also, don’t forget that there is an 8:30 AM CST kickoff between the Panthers and Buccaneers in London. Keep that in mind for your fantasy lineups and my Start/Sit that will be here later this week. There are plenty of excellent matchups for Week 6, so let’s get to the selections.
Lay the Points, Lock it in
Houston @ Kansas City (-5)
The Chiefs got ran into the ground last Sunday night against Indianapolis, at Arrowhead, at night. It wouldn’t be surprising if there is extra motivation in preparations for their game against the Texans. Kansas City’s offense didn’t look spectacular, and Houston put up the most points in franchise history last week. The over of 55 looks really good, but also I do like the Chiefs covering. Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid are going to spend most of the week drawing up plays against man coverage. Until the Colts, most teams played zone against the Chiefs with little success. The Texans certainly will follow that strategy and play more man. However, Reid and Mahomes have such a high creativity level on offense that they’ll be able to rebound in a big way. As for the defensive side of the ball, I’m not going to totally discount Tyrann Mathieu’s time in Houston when it comes to making adjustments. The bottom line is this: Kansas City is angry right now. They aren’t the team I’d want to play when they’re pissed off.
Dallas (-7) @ New York Jets
Sure, the Jets are getting Sam Darnold back. That isn’t going to automatically make them competitive, especially against the Cowboys. If New York’s plan is to run the ball better than Dallas, that’s already a losing strategy (Yes, I hear you out there. I know they have Le’Veon Bell. He has 209 rushing yards and 0 rushing touchdowns so far. The Jets are bad). If they plan on passing the ball, they’ll have to hope that Darnold is ready to throw it 35-40 times. I don’t think that is highly likely either, so what are we left with? You guessed it, another blowout. Dallas can win this game in whatever way they choose, and Zeke may have another 150+ all-purpose yard day. Granted, after getting absolutely pummeled by the Eagles last week, I do expect the Jets to come out with some competitiveness, but Adam Gase really hasn’t been able to string together a full game yet. I don’t expect that to start this week.
Detroit @ Green Bay (-4)
Congratulations, Matt LaFleur! You took notes! You realized that Aaron Jones is a top tier talent at running back and can be a game-changer. You also allowed Aaron Rodgers to take more control of the offense at the line of scrimmage (seriously, why did you ever think that was a good idea to fight the entire city of Green Bay on that?) and it worked out to the tune of a 34-24 win against a quality Cowboys team. So, Coach LaFleur, you have the Detroit Lions for Week 6. They’re a bottom 20 defense in points per game and 27th in yards per game. What kind of offense should you run? That’s right! You employ the same strategy. No, you can’t just reuse all of last week. Let Rodgers come up with a few wrinkles and everything should be fine. Continue to utilize Aaron Jones like you should have been doing, and this should be an easy win. Sound good, LaFleur? Awesome. Oh, if you people reading caught all that, take the Packers this week.
Take the Points, Make Money
Atlanta (+2.5) @ Arizona
The Falcons are doing everything possible this year to ignore Julio Jones. I’m not entirely sure why, and nobody else is either. The Cardinals aren’t very good, and they also don’t have anyone who has a prayer to cover Jones. Dan Quinn has screwed up this offense to the point to them being an underdog to an Arizona team that is bottom five in points per game and yards allowed. I get it, Atlanta’s defense isn’t stellar either, but they have beaten the Eagles this season. Sure they got trounced by Houston and DeShaun Watson last week, but Arizona needed a last-second field goal to beat the Bungles in Cincinnati. There’s no reason that Julio Jones has only 4 more receptions so far this season than Devonta Freeman. If Atlanta comes to their senses, this should be a relatively easy win. Otherwise, just pack it in and look forward to the draft Falcons fans.
Tennessee (+2.5) @ Denver
The Broncos did the Chiefs a favor in finding a way to beat the Chargers last week, but that doesn’t mean they’ll have an easy time this week against an old-school team in the Titans. Denver already had a similar opponent at home in Jacksonville and Leonard Fournette. All Fournette did was have a career-high 225-yard performance in a win. Now it’s Derrick Henry and Tennessee’s run-heavy attack visiting Mile High. While I expect the Denver defense to stiffen up and learn a bit from the Jaguars game, I don’t think it will be enough to actually stop the running game completely. Henry could easily be in line for a 125+ yard and multi-touchdown day. The Titans defense is also only giving up around 15 points per game and going against an unexciting Broncos offense that relies on defensive busts in coverage, I don’t see them scoring enough in an overall low scoring game.
San Francisco (+3) @ Los Angeles Rams
The 49ers haven’t really had a tough opponent this year (they’ve beaten the Steelers, Browns, Bungles, and Bucs) but they’ve done what a good team is supposed to do against worse teams. Win in convincing fashion. San Francisco’s domination of Cleveland was impressive and the offense seems to be running very well under Kyle Shanahan. The running back duo of Matt Breida and Tevin Coleman is exceeding expectations and George Kittle is causing mismatches all over the secondary. The Rams defense has been uncharacteristically mediocre so far this season, giving up just about 27 points per game and over 100 rushing yards per game. This will be a real test for one of the two remaining unbeaten teams in Week 6, but I really do like their chances of making this a game that comes down to the final whistle.
College Bonus Picks
I’ll tell you what, it went better than I expected. Kansas wasn’t completely helpless (I mean it was as competitive as a 25 point margin of defeat could be, I guess) against Oklahoma this past week. Pooka Williams was explosive at times and Carter Stanley was decent. It should serve them well, as my Jayhawks head into a bye week before playing Texas. Speaking of Oklahoma and Texas, it’s Red River Rivalry week and it should have plenty of fireworks (the over/under is at an enormous 76.5) and could go either way. As for Clemson, they’ve had a bye week to figure out some things, and I feel like they should have a great performance (and cover the 27 point spread) against a struggling Florida State team in Death Valley. As always, I have my main slate of picks on my Twitter (@Rellihan51) so for the bigger matchups, you’ll find those picks there. However, I do think everyone who keeps up with me every week deserves bonus material!
- Michigan @ Illinois (+22)
- Louisville @ Wake Forest (-6.5)
- Hawaii @ Boise State (-12.5)
- Nebraska (+7.5) @ Minnesota
- Who Cares Game of the Week: Kent State (even) @ Akron
SUPER BONUS
Coming to you live from Arrowhead Stadium at noon Saturday, it’ll be Ryan Dodd and the #19 Pittsburg State Gorillas beating the #6 ranked Northwest Missouri State Bearcats. This special super bonus selection is brought to you by me. The leader of the newly formed Ryan Dodd Fan Club and I’ll be there along with family and friends. This will be a great game, and I think Pitt State is going to pull it out in the end.
That wraps it up for my NFL Game Picks and College Bonus selections. As always, I want to thank everyone for reading every week and engaging me on Twitter. Please don’t hesitate to keep the conversation going! Do you agree with me? Disagree? Want to see me elbow drop a table? It’s all on my Twitter. I look forward to seeing everyone for my Start/Sit article later this week.
Nick Rellihan (@Rellihan51)
