Teams hopes and dreams often rest on the NFL Draft. Everyone is concerned about who their team will take round one, or who the next great player is. However, teams will also use the draft to take value picks. Maybe not a superstar day one, or even play year one. That doesn’t make these bad picks though. Tom Brady was the 199th pick and barely played year one. Now, I’m not saying this guy will be as good as Tom, but AJ Dillon out of Boston College is a great sleeper who should be on your radar.
The Bad: Not a Day One Starter
No prospect is perfect, I get that. I am very high on Dillon, but no body should take him before the third round. For starters, his draft grade is 6.17. This essentially means Dillon will be a top tier backup, who could develop into a starter. This would be good enough if Dillon did not have such a high workload at Boston College. Dillon carried the ball 318 times last season, good enough for third in the NCAA, and first in the ACC. This wasn’t a sudden increase either. Dillon carried the rock 300 times his freshman year, and 227 times his sophomore year (after missing three games). This would not be as concerning if Dillon was a perfect player, and did everything.
AJ Dillon did not do everything for Boston College. As the NFL continues to lean on the pass, Dillon’s inability to catch will be a concern. He only had 21 catches over three years for 236 yards and two touchdowns. This means that Dillon won’t be an every down back, even if he can handle a high workload. With Dillon’s inability to catch, teams will most likely try to load the box while he is in. As this happens, Dillon will have to deal with immediate pressure. This is another area where AJ struggled. With pressure in his face, he did not do well with getting out of it. In college, this was not as big a deal, as he could run through or around defenders. In the NFL, the players are better, stronger, and faster, which will lead to Dillon being tackled for a loss more often.
So AJ Dillon at Boston College ran the ball a lot, can’t catch, and will be caught behind the line a lot. Why do I love this guy?
The Good: A Poor Man’s Derrick Henry
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Right off the bat, just because Dillon is a less than ideal pass catcher, that does not make him useless on passing downs. He has the size to block blitzing linebackers, and could be a good check down option in the flats. Most of his value, however, comes from his rushing ability.
AJ Dillon is an athletic, big runner. He is six feet tall, and weighs 247 pounds and ran a 4.53. This is not eye popping speed, but coupled with his 23 bench reps shows how athletic he is. This strength allows him to be a straight ahead runner, with the speed to bounce it outside if he doesn’t see a hole. This is a big advantage for Dillon, as he reads the line very well, and even though he likes to follow the design of the run, he has the vision and shiftiness to deviate from this if needed (unless there’s a blocker right in his face.)
This vision allows Dillon to get into the open field. His draft analysis calls his burst to the second level “ok.” If you put him behind a good line, Dillon will get to the second level and wreak havoc on smaller DBs. I view Dillon as a poor man’s Derrick Henry. He is big, physical, and has the speed to break a long one. Yes, Henry was better in college and did win a Heisman. But, like Dillon, Henry is a big bodied, athletic back who had concerns about the mileage on his legs in college.
Who Should Draft Him?
Nobody who needs a premier back should take Dillon expecting that. However, a team who utilizes a running back by committee should seriously look at this guy. The Patriots, for example, would be a perfect fit. Without a new quarterback for the first time in twenty years, Dillon could be used to put defenses on their heels. This would open up the passing game for Stidham, Hoyer, or whoever they draft. This would allow Sony Michel to come in as a change of pace back, or open up passing lanes for James White. The Bears could also utilize Dillon in a similar role, as a guy to pound the defense when Montgomery needs a break, and to tire out the defense for Cohen.
