As I said in my Eastern Conference NHL Bubble Preview, hockey is unpredictable. Fans (or maybe just me) do these sorts of things to be able to look back a week later and laugh in people’s faces. Even so, we all know those are pipe dreams. People aren’t actually good at predicting hockey right? Right.
Calgary vs. Winnipeg
All-Canadian match-ups always get me excited. The inter-provincial beef between Manitoba and Alberta will hinge on the outcome of this series. Both teams are flawed but have great upside.
The Flames have taken a step back since last year. Ever since they got embarrassed by the fringe Colorado Avalanche last April, they’ve played more like a stifled pile of hot ash than a mighty flame. The undersized Johnny Gaudreau has had perhaps his worst season to date. Luckily for him though, Calgary has a good supporting cast around him, including Matthew Tkachuk, the new alpha. The bottom-six, however, leaves a lot to be desired something I value a lot when talking about playoff hockey. The defense is all over the place, ranging from young to old, defensive to offensive. Overall it is a stellar unit, led by Mark Giordano. David Rittich, the expected starter, has not been great, but probably won’t be holding the team back.
The Jets enter the NHL Bubble on a controlled collision course. The reason I say this is because just a few years ago people were praising the Jets for how well they set themselves up for the future. Yet here they are being kept afloat by Connor Hellebuyck. He’s been majestic for Winnipeg, proving himself as the franchise goalie for many years to come. Without him, this team would be facing a tough off-season. Most of their forwards, apart from Kyle Connor and Nikolaj Ehlers, haven’t improved significantly since 2018 (even Patrik Laine). The departure of Dustin Byfuglien left the team hanging, but Josh Morrissey and Neal Pionk have somehow proven themselves as serviceable.
I think these teams are pretty much dead even in terms of talent. I just think that Hellebuyck will hand Winnipeg an undeserved win at some point, giving the edge to the Jets.
Prediction: Winnipeg in 5.
Edmonton vs. Chicago
McDavid and Draisaitl against Kane and Toews. Old against new. These games will be highly entertaining and extremely marketable. This is some must-watch hockey.
Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Kailer Yamamoto; four highly skilled forwards with complimenting skill sets. Edmonton’s Cup window is open right now and will be as long as these four are eating minutes. Dave Tippett has done wonders with this team, turning the losing culture around and bringing success to Edmonton that feels sustainable for the first time in a while. The bottom-six isn’t anything worth writing home about, but it won’t be a liability, as some people unfairly suggest. That said, their defense is shaky. If they play below-average hockey, this team might not have a chance to get started. Their goalie situation is weird, but actually quite good. Mike Smith was the only thing right with Calgary last year and could repeat that performance. If not, then Mikko Koskinen has been reliable all year for the Oilers.
The Chicago Blackhawks are one of the great NHL franchises. Their three Stanley Cups in six years in the 30-team era may not be replicated for a very long time. Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews, and Duncan Keith are all going straight to the Hall Of Fame once they’re eligible. But its 2020. Every member of those winning teams is in decline. The Hawks have drafted well and made some savvy trades, stocking up on talent like Kirby Dach, Dominik Kubalik, and Adam Boqvist recently. I’m optimistic that such a competent front office will have Chicago competing again soon, but as of now, I don’t think they are a very good team.
Of course, Toews, Kane, and most importantly, Corey Crawford, could shock us and bring them far, but I don’t see it happening.
Prediction: Edmonton in 3.
Vancouver vs. Minnesota
Vancouver and Minnesota are two franchises trending in opposite directions meeting at a crossroads. The up and coming, youthful Vancouver team and the old, declining Wild are both at the awkward stage of fringe playoff contention.
The Canucks are a precariously built hockey team. Their top two forward lines are very good. Elias Pettersson and Brock Boeser, in particular, should be fixtures in this lineup for a decade, if the salary cap permits such indulgence. The bottom forward lines are not great. They cost the team hockey games. They are not good enough to be an average playoff forward group. It will require superhuman efforts from the skilled forwards to carry the ‘Nucks deep. The defense is average. Quinn Hughes is a beast, and no matter how highly you think of him, he’s probably still underrated. Jacob Markstrom, the netminder, is equally underrated. Elias Pettersson has deservedly received Hart consideration, but Markstrom is the Canucks MVP.
Minnesota used to be Vancouver if you exclude the franchise center. The franchise defined by painfully never-ending mediocrity was finally on the decline before the start of the new decade. Now, this team has, once again, given management hope that they don’t need to blow up. Kevin Fiala is great, and Zach Parise and Eric Staal are playing stellar hockey. But overall, this group is just so… mediocre. That is until you talk about the defense, which is nothing short of elite. Jared Spurgeon and Ryan Suter lead a deep, effective unit that wins battles, games, and maybe series. Devan Dubnyk, who brought his career back from the abyss a few years ago, is now holding Minnesota back.
I’ve said some good and bad things about each team, but as it often goes in hockey, I’m siding with the better goalie.
Prediction: Vancouver in 5.
Nashville vs. Arizona
These two southern teams are yet another example of similarly built squads facing off against each other in this insane NHL Bubble tournament.
Nashville yearns to reach the glory days of 2017. Many core players from that team are still there, and the overall structure is the same. All that has changed is the fact that Pekka Rinne is no longer an elite goalie, a sad reality for long-time hockey fans. The forward group, which has never really been elite, struggles to change games. Viktor Arvidsson, Filip Forsberg, and Matt Duchene are all good, but not game-breakers. The strength of this team comes from the defense, led by soon-to-be Norris winner Roman Josi and the freakishly consistent Ryan Ellis. It pains me to say because I was rooting for this team against Pittsburgh in that finals series, but they are no longer excellent and won’t be getting better anytime soon. Can Pekka steal a game? Maybe. Are these forwards good enough to get Nashville deep? No.
Arizona got us all excited by starting the year off strong and acquiring Taylor Hall. Unfortunately for those of us who were excited to see Arizona get its act together, we’ve had to sit through another year where the Coyotes have let us down. Oliver Ekman-Larsson, the leader of this team and its above-average defense, may regret signing here long term. Its recent firing of John Chayka lacks consistency with what the team is trying to do. This disorganized roster-building approach is reflected in its bizarre forward group. Nick Schmaltz, Clayton Keller, and Christian Dvorak, the three young building pieces on offense have struggled to sustain high-level production. Phil Kessel and Taylor Hall, the two major trade acquisitions, haven’t been at their best in the burgundy uniform. Arizona does have two good goalies in Darcy Kuemper and Antti Raanta though. For that reason alone, they might survive.
Nashville may not be at its best, but Arizona never has been and never is. They do have an advantage in nets though, so I’ll give the ‘Yotes a game.
Prediction: Nashville in 4.
