With a new, and hopefully temporary, 16-team playoff bracket in place for the 2020 season, the MLB postseason race will have more contenders than ever before. In the American League, there are eight teams above .500 with another team at the .500 mark, making that playoff race fairly simple to process. The National League, however, has only four teams over .500 and a whole host of teams still believing in their chances. With the trade deadline behind us, let’s play Contender or Pretender with the teams still in the hunt. (Teams between 20-80 percent chance to make the playoffs according to ESPN as of 8/31 are included in this article).
Miami Marlins: Pretender
The NL East started the year as one of the toughest divisions in baseball, with four teams having legit playoff hopes. The Miami Marlins were not one of them. Of course, they came out of the gate hot and sit in second place in the division. They do, however, have an abysmal home record (1-8) and a -11 run differential. With a lackluster lineup (3rd worst OPS in National League), and heavy reliance on young starting pitching (Pablo Lopez, Elieser Hernandez, and Sixto Sanchez), the Marlins are better suited to make a playoff push in 2021.
Side note: Sixto Sanchez is absolutely FILTHY.
Marlins rookie Sixto Sanchez is going to be a PROBLEM with pitches like this pic.twitter.com/zXfd1TRO5w
— Belly Up Baseball (@BellyUpBaseball) August 23, 2020
Notable Trade Deadline deals: Acquire outfielder Starling Marte from Diamondbacks, Send infielder Jonathan Villar to Blue Jays.
Philadelphia Phillies: Contender
The Philadelphia Phillies have all the star power necessary to make the playoffs for the first time since 2011. Bryce Harper and JT Realmuto are in the middle of the lineup; Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler head the rotation. A horrendous bullpen (7.01 ERA, Last in MLB) derailed those playoff hopes for a time, but with four new relievers in town (Brandon Workman, Heath Hembree, David Hale, David Phelps), the Phillies seem to have the reinforcements to make a run. Rhys Hoskins has started to make a difference with a 1.165 OPS over the last two weeks and has shown the ability to carry the Phillies offense when needed.
Notable Trade Deadline deals: Acquire relievers Brandon Workman and Heath Hembree from Red Sox, Acquire reliever David Hale from Yankees, Acquire reliever David Phelps from Brewers
New York Mets: Pretender
Pete Alonso and Jeff McNeil are struggling to replicate their success from 2019. Jacob DeGrom is the only reliable starter. The bullpen lacks options behind Seth Lugo and Edwin Diaz. The New York Mets need to turn this season around in a hurry. Robinson Cano is having his best season in years and Dominic Smith is in the midst of a breakout, but the struggles of the starting pitching and lack of trustworthy bullpen arms are too much for the lineup to overcome.
Notable Trade Deadline deals: Acquire catcher Robinson Chirinos and third baseman Todd Frazier from Rangers, Acquire reliever Miguel Castro from Orioles
St. Louis Cardinals: Contender
After a long lay-off due to COVID-19, the St. Louis Cardinals have gotten dominant pitching performances from 24-year old Jack Flaherty and 39-year old Adam Wainwright. KBO veteran Kwang Hyun Kim has given the Cardinals depth behind their two aces, as has second-year starter Dakota Hudson. The offense, however, has been lacking behind superstar Paul Goldschmidt and 2019 All-Star Paul DeJong. With an OPS that ranks 11th in the National League, the Cardinals will go as far as their pitching staff can take them.
Notable Trade Deadline deals: N/A
Milwaukee Brewers: Pretender
Despite employing Christian Yelich, one of the game’s premier players, the Milwaukee Brewers are astonishingly below average. Yelich has struggled mightily, sporting a .195 batting average and a .790 OPS. The starting pitching has been equally below average, leading to a strong bullpen, led by Josh Hader and breakout rookie Devin Williams, being wasted as the team is chasing many of the games they are in. Without a return to form from Yelich, the Brewers will likely miss the expanded playoffs this season.
Notable Trade Deadline deals: Send reliever David Phelps to Phillies
Cincinnati Reds: Contender
Led in the rotation by a resurgent Sonny Gray and an inspired Trevor Bauer, the Cincinnati Reds are a competent bullpen away from being on the Chicago Cubs heels for the NL Central lead. With five blown saves in nine chances, the Reds have consistently thrown away leads late. The offense has been treading water through the struggles of Joey Votto and Eugenio Suarez, with solid contributions from Jesse Winkler and Nicholas Castellanos. Deadline acquisitions Brian Goodwin and Archie Bradley should improve the Reds weaknesses.
Notable Trade Deadline deals: Acquire outfielder Brain Goodwin from Angels, Acquire reliever Archie Bradley from Diamondbacks
Colorado Rockies: Contender
After a red hot 11-3 start, the Colorado Rockies have cooled considerably. The potent offense is led by superstars Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story. With Charlie Blackmon finding his 2017 form and Raimel Tapia breaking out, this lineup is deeper than in recent years. The pitching staff has surprised with Antonio Senzetela and Kyle Freeland leading the way to keep the Rockies in games. If the pitching staff can continue to be league average, the Rockies can be a difficult out if the MLB Playoffs are held in a bubble.
Notable Trade Deadline deals: Acquire Kevin Pillar from Red Sox
San Francisco Giants: Pretender
A hot stretch as of late has pushed the San Francisco Giants into the playoff picture. With a mediocre pitching staff and lineup, the Giants do not appear to be on the brink of making the promised land this year. Veterans Donovan Solano and Brandon Belt have given the lineup a boost and Mike Yastrzemski has continued his breakout performance from last season. But the pitching staff ranks in the lower half of the National League, which limits the Giants’ upside.
Notable Trade Deadline deals: N/A
Yes, all of these teams play in the National League. Yes, the National League playoff picture is insane. Consider the teams labeled “contender” my predictions for the four playoff teams behind the division leaders. The Braves, Cubs, Dodgers, and Padres are near locks at this point. Looking at the American League, playing Contender or Pretender is a moot point because the Tigers stink and will not challenge the Blue Jays for the eighth spot in the AL.
Follow me on Twitter @DanDamico14. Follow @BellyUpBaseball on Twitter.
Check out all my other work for Belly Up Sports! For all things baseball, check out all of Belly Up Sports’ baseball articles.
