Start Sekou over Blake. Period. Call me overly-optimistic. Brand me a dreamer. Spew whatever hot, hateful garbage you can. I don’t care. I believe that there is a case for starting our young, high-potential prospect over an aging, oft-injured star. I’m staking my claim for Sekou over Blake.
An Overview of Blake Griffin
Unlike many Pistons fans, I’m not itching to ship an injury-prone Blake Griffin off in exchange for a Faygo Cola and a slice of Little Caesar’s pizza. I believe that he has value despite his injury history, and I believe he’s a good veteran teammate and player. That being said, last season was rough. Blake Griffin averaged 15.5 points and 4.7 rebounds per game. He shot poorly compared to previous seasons only managing to hit 35.2-percent of his field goals and 24.3-percent of his threes.
With a small sample size of eighteen games and a career-low 28.4 minutes per game, it’s hard to know if this is the new normal. The year prior, Griffin averaged 24.5 points and 7.5 rebounds per game, and he played more than seventy games for the first time since the 2013-14 season. I believe this is an anomaly. Don’t expect another full season on the horizon.
The advanced analytics tell a similar, unfortunate story. Griffin still maintained a high 28.4 usage percent last year. This is marginally higher than his average usage percentage of 28.1-percent for his career. Yet, despite that usage percentage, his win shares fell off dramatically. In the 2018-19 season he contributed an estimated 8.0 wins, but in the 2019-20 season he contributed an estimated -0.1 wins. In one season he went from a major factor to a non-factor.
An Overview of Sekou Doumbouya
Sekou Doumbouya’s stats don’t exactly jump off the page either. He averaged a measly 6.4 points and 3.1 rebounds per game playing 19.8 minutes per game for the Detroit Pistons. Contrast that with his averages of 17.5 points and 5.4 rebounds per game playing 27.0 minutes for the Grand Rapids Drive. The difference in his field goal percentage and three-point percentage are also night and day. With the Pistons, he shot 39.0-percent from the field and 28.6-percent from three. With the Drive, he shot 49.3-percent from the field and 35.6-percent from three. Even his free throw percentage was 17.0-percent higher with the Drive.
The deep difference between these stats shows Doumbouya’s promise. He needs more opportunity and more confidence.
Compared to Griffin’s down year, his advanced analytics aren’t too encouraging either. He had a win share of -0.3 and a 16.9 usage percentage. His win share is similar to the aforementioned Griffin, and he’s not necessarily winning you games. The difference is trajectory. Griffin projects to decline. Doumbouya projects to improve.
Blake Would Be Better Off the Bench
If Blake Griffin isn’t winning you games, he does more for the team in a role developing, assisting, or supporting players who one day will. Limiting his minutes to the low-twenties and pairing him against less-threatening bench players will accomplish a few important things:
- First, benching him will help protect his fragile health. There is very little chance of moving Griffin’s massive contract if he’s out for the season. There is also very little chance of him being useful in street clothes if you can’t move his contract.
- Second, benching him will show trade suitors that Griffin is capable of contributing in his new role. Many championship contenders are not looking to add another starter midseason. That’s not what they need. They need a veteran who can bolster their bench late in the playoffs. We’ve seen this demonstrated by the long list of Derrick Rose rumors.
- Third, benching him will force teams to rethink and rework their own lineups. Forcing changes in another team’s rotation gives you a strategic advantage if you are trying to win games. Facing Derrick Rose and Blake Griffin is too much for the average bench squad.
- Fourth, benching him will open up more opportunities for Jerami Grant as well. Grant signed with the Pistons desiring a larger offensive role. Giving Grant these minutes is more future-focused and establishes a defensively-minded forward beside a potential star in Doumbouya.
This transition may be painful. Griffin has started 622 games in the 622 games he’s played. He’s always started, but I believe he would be better off the bench.
Sekou Would Be Better As a Starter
If you move Sekou into the starting lineup it would be better for him. I don’t know that he would be better immediately, but it would do more for the future of the Detroit Pistons. Giving him this opportunity accomplishes a few important things.
- First, starting him will allow him to get experience that he desperately needs. Forget patience. It’s time for a baptism by fire. His development needs to move from the theoretical to the practical. He has shown that he can contribute as a starter. He needs to build his confidence this year so he can contribute consistently.
- Second, starting him would advance the Piston’s timeline regardless of the outcome. We’re not building this team around Griffin. If we’re winning with Doumbouya in the starting lineup we’re heading in the right direction. If we’re losing with Doumbouya in the starting lineup we’re heading in the right direction. It’s a win-win situation. We’re either developing a future championship piece or getting in position for better draft picks.
- Third, starting him gives the fans what they want. Pistons fans have spent a decade watching high-potential Pistons’ picks play well for other teams. We’re used to losing, but we’d like to lose with a purpose. If we’re going to lose, I want these losses to feel worthwhile.
This transition would be equally hard for Doumbouya. This season would be the most challenging of his professional career. He may not seem ready for this larger role, but I believe it’s time to give him a chance.
What do you think? Should we start Sekou over Blake? For more Detroit Pistons content follow me on Twitter or check out another article.
