Handicapping The MLB Home Run Derby

Now that it’s right around the corner, my thoughts are turned to the Home Run Derby. It’s always a fun summer night. Sit back, crack open the beverage of your choice and watch the baseballs disappear into the night.

Perhaps it was me anticipating the arrival of the dog days of summer. Maybe it’s the excitement of writing about my favorite sport, and my favorite team. Whatever the case, I have been royally geeking out on the MLB All-Star Game.

I went on a Media Tour to share thoughts on the voting process with some of my Belly Up Sports cohorts.

So who will win? That’s anyone’s guess, really. To add some clarity, I sat down with fellow Belly Up writer Peter Van Seventer. He wrote a fun article recently, attempting to aid bettors wagering on Euro 2020. I figured he’d be a good person to talk to in trying to figure out Monday nights’ champion.

Seeing as Vladmir Guerrero Jr. is sitting out this year’s event, I should’ve asked him. He has shown an ability to predict the future lately.

Vladdy is a man of his word. ?#WeAreBlueJays

(?: @MLB) pic.twitter.com/7pkMJdU6Bl

— Sportsnet 590 The FAN (@FAN590) July 7, 2021

Obviously, Vladdy has nothing to prove and is in the middle of a brilliant season. He showed some wear in the second half of 2019 after launching over 100 moonshots but still somehow lost that year.

Here’s a look at the field:

#1 Shohei Ohtani vs #8 Juan Soto

Ohtani has been nothing short of a sensation this season. He leads the league in homers and became the first player to be voted an All-Star in two positions. He also broke Hideki Matsui’s record for the most homers by a Japanese-born player.

Shohei Ohtani is the first player since Albert Pujols in 2006 to hit 33+ HR in his first 82 games of a season. pic.twitter.com/bfX7jUzYWd

— MLB Stats (@MLBStats) July 10, 2021

So to say Ohtani is the favorite heading into the Derby would be a massive understatement.

Standing in his way in Round 1 will be Juan Soto. While he’s had a solid season, Soto hasn’t blossomed like fellow stars Guerrero Jr. or Fernando Tatis Jr. It was somewhat surprising he made the All-Star roster. However, he could get hot and pull off the shocker. I just wouldn’t expect it.

#2 Joey Gallo vs #7 Trevor Story

Gallo has been hot lately and should be treated as, at least, a strong dark horse candidate. He homered in five straight games at the end of June and can really launch some moonshots! He’s hit 16 home runs over 450 feet in the Statcast era, tied with Giancarlo Stanton for the most in MLB.

JOEY GALLO IN THE HR DERBY NEWS DROPS AND HE DROPS ANOTHER TANK

(via @MLB) pic.twitter.com/AL7MScX1Ga

— B/R Walk-Off (@BRWalkoff) July 7, 2021

Story has had a bit of a down year but will be the hometown hero. He knows the ballpark well, is known as a streaky hitter, and could advance. It’s also a chance for him to have a cool moment with the fans. He’s expected to sign a free-agent contract with another team this winter.

#3 Matt Olson vs # 6 Trey Mancini

Since being called up in August 2017, only three players have hit more homers than Olson. He’s definitely a contender to win it all.

Mancini is the obvious inspirational choice. He sat out the 2020 season after being diagnosed with colon cancer. He’s had a nice bounceback season and is an easy guy to root for.

4⃣5⃣1⃣ FEET FROM HOME RUN DERBY PARTICIPANT TREY MANCINI ? pic.twitter.com/AOxuEIKuMY

— Baltimore Orioles (@Orioles) July 3, 2021

#4 Salvador Perez vs #5 Pete Alonso

It’s pretty rare for a catcher to be in the derby but Perez is no gimmick selection. His 20 big flies make him just the third backstop to reach that total before the break since 2003. No catcher has ever won it so Salvy could make history on Monday night.

Alonso survived Guerrero Jr.’s seemingly endless barrage of dingers to capture the title in 2019. He hasn’t been able to recapture his magical, 53 HR campaign from that season, but Alonso’s a gamer. His pride as defending champ, and his showmanship will make his hacks must-see TV.

Derby man has entered the chat!! Pete Alonso with a 3-run bomb to extend the Mets’ lead in the 6th ??

(via @Mets)pic.twitter.com/DXUQOJmez9

— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) July 10, 2021

To get Peter’s views on the Derby, you’ll have to watch the video above or read his article.

Thanks for reading I hope you enjoyed it! Check out more of my articles here and other Belly Up content here. Follow me on Twitter here.