One of the MLB’s upstart teams to watch once the lockout ends will be the Detroit Tigers. The Motor City Kitties had one of their better seasons in recent memory in 2021 at 77-85. Compared to the past few seasons in which they hovered around the 100 loss mark, it’s a step in the right direction. Now, heading into 2022, they’ll have a new manager, shortstop, pitcher, and catcher along with numerous top prospects knocking on the door of the majors. Those new additions will play alongside a young pitching core full of talent looking to take the next big step forward.
This upcoming season will be an important one for Detroit. They’re finally starting to see the fruits of their labors in the basement of the American League Central. Despite their fortunes looking up, their road to greatness isn’t an easy one. If they want to prove themselves this year, their journey runs through the Chicago White Sox, the division leader for the past two years and one of the AL’s top contenders. There’s also the Twins who, despite a recent sell-off, still have pieces to make a run.
Detroit looks scarier than they have in a long time, but it feels like a stretch to say they’re ready quite yet. Let’s break down some of the factors that play into their 2022 season.
New Additions Make the Tigers a More Formidable Foe
Detroit clearly has some confidence in their new core given their early offseason spending. The big-ticket items so far include Javier Baez and Eduardo Rodriguez. Baez may come as a bit of a disappointment for Tigers fans hoping for Carlos Correa to come to town, but the former Cub remains one of the better shortstops in the league. Since 2018, he’s posted a 113 OPS+ even with his brutal 2020 outing included while receiving high marks from Statcast’s Outs Above Average on defense. He took a slight step back defensively in 2021, but still ended up in the 86th percentile of players.
Rodriguez, meanwhile, adds a sturdy veteran presence to the rotation. Despite a high ERA, the former Red Sox hurler’s 3.32 FIP paints a much more favorable picture of his performance in 2021. E-Rod also posted his highest career strikeout percentage and tied his lowest walk rate for his career last year. Throughout his career, Statcast has more often than not rated Rodriguez more favorably than his base stats will show, and coming into a pitcher’s park in Comerica, he looks set to continue his steady performance while giving veteran guidance to the young Tigers rotation.
Of all the acquisitions of the season so far, the Tigers’ trade for Tucker Barnhart might be the most underrated. At the plate, Barnhart leaves some to be desired with a career 83 OPS+. Behind the dish though, he shines as a premier backstop with two gold gloves and 20 DRS. Moreover, his framing has improved in recent years, earning 2.4 framing runs in 2021. The Tigers needed that improvement at catcher to help their budding pitching staff develop.
Detroit’s Young Talent is on the Come Up
Detroit’s crown jewel in terms of development is that pitching staff. They’ve spent years building up their rotation with talented, homegrown arms looking to prove themselves. Casey Mize, Matt Manning, Tarik Skubal, and Spencer Turnbull were all top prospects in the Tigers system. To this point, each has had varying levels of success, but it’s still early on in their careers. Mize looks to be the future ace of the staff after taking a big step forward last year. After posting a brutal 6.99 ERA in his first seven games in the majors, he threw for 150 1/3 innings last year to the tune of a 3.71 ERA and 1.139 FIP. Turnbull also made strides, throwing his first no-hitter and posting a pristine 2.88 ERA before Tommy John ended his season. This is all without mentioning guys like Kyle Funkhouser and Tyler Alexander.
SPENCER TURNBULL THROWS A NO-HITTER ?
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) May 19, 2021
(via @mlb)pic.twitter.com/NHyoypzI6V
Following that wave of excellent pitchers comes two premium position players in Spencer Torkelson and Riley Greene. Both are projected to make their debut sometime in the upcoming season and both are consensus top prospects. Keith Law (subscription required) ranks Greene and Torkelson at three and four on his top 100 prospect list. Between AA and AAA last year, Greene posted a disgusting slash line of .301/.387/.534. Torkelson was similarly great with a .267/.383/.552 triple slash with 30 home runs to boot. Both look to one day slot in the heart of that Tiger’s order. Greene provides the contact while Torkelson brings the thunder. Having these guys with good on-base and contact skills should also balance out the strikeout-prone Baez.
A Tough Road Remains for the Tigers
Everything the Tigers have currently still pales to what their rivals in Chicago have built so far, however. The White Sox had six regulars last year with an OPS+ at or above league average. If you throw out Yermin Mercedes who was right at 100, the other five were well above average with the next lowest being a 117 OPS+. This all before you factor in their deep bench which had guys like Gavin Sheets and Adam Engel who both raked last year. Their pitching is still stellar too. Lance Lynn and Lucas Giolito both got Cy Young votes and Dylan Cease wasn’t much worse. Their bullpen is full of deadly arms too from the newly-acquired Kendall Graveman and young Garett Crochet to the best closer in the league Liam Hendriks.
This is all to say taking down the White Sox doesn’t seem feasible now. When Detroit gets more of their farm system to the Show and arms up with more big free agents, they’ll be a real contender. As of right now, it seems a bit early to crown them as a prominent threat. We need to see what Greene and Torkelson do in their first year and how the pitching staff continues to develop. They have pieces but feel a little shy until their talent fully translates to the majors. There’s so much potential within this organization and even if they don’t jump to the front of the line this year, their time in the sun is close at hand.
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