It’s early March, which means the NCAA men’s and women’s basketball tournaments are right around the corner. Buckle up and get ready for three weeks of the most exciting, high-pressure hoops you’re likely to witness all year.
While everyone knows the perfect bracket doesn’t exist, there are a few things to keep in mind in order to maximize your chances.
No coming at me online if this doesn’t work, this is completely optional and unsolicited advice. Now I realize that the field isn’t set yet. These are simply some basic pointers that should help you put your best foot forward.
Watch the Selection Show
I know it seems dated to sit around the tv and write down the matchups as they’re announced, and it is. This practice does help maximize the amount of time you can ponder over your choices though. The show includes live reactions from the teams who made it (and a few that don’t) and coach interviews. Basically, it features a bunch of people who know more about college basketball than you or I. Which leads right into my second point.
Listen to the Analysts
During the show, when they’re analyzing the matchups, Seth Davis or Clark Kellogg typically let it be known who they like. Of course, upsets are bound to happen, but I trust the people who have been keeping a close eye on the sport all season.
And not for nothing but I claim full credit for inventing the term “Glue Guy.” It did not exist before this March 20, 2000 @SInow story I put together with the great @alexander_wolff. A great way to celebrate players who make important contributions.https://t.co/WPgjH2VCRS
— Seth Davis (@SethDavisHoops) March 7, 2022
While writing the matchups down, also record the thoughts of the analysts. They will help to identify potential upsets, teams ranked too high, and strong/weaker regions. This will form a bigger picture view for picks beyond the first weekend.
Strategically Select Cinderellas
After getting the goods on some low-ranked teams that could be primed for an upset, understand the history. Number 12 seeds have won 35% percent of tournament games against #5 seeds. I always like to pick at least two 12 seeds to advance, and it often holds true.
#11 seeds have slightly higher odds (37.5%) of winning at least one game. When you get into the seeds 13 or higher, it gets a bit murkier. #13 seeds have a 31-113 record against #4 seeds, or a winning percentage of 21.53. That still means it’s likely one of those teams pulls the upset.
22 years ago today, Bryce Drew buried a buzzer beater three to knock off No. 4 seed Ole Miss.
— Barstool Sportsbook (@BSSportsbook) March 13, 2020
Valpo was +525 on the ML.
pic.twitter.com/qaBkCJeWqR
There was a #14 seed upset every year from 2013-2016 and then none until Abilene Christian took down Texas last year. Still, they present just over 15% odds overall. If you’re thinking of pickling a #15 seed, I’d advise against it. They’re just 9-135 all-time, a 6.25 percentage. So, I’d say pick two 12 seeds, and then one or two lower seeds to win one game.
Rock Chalk
While the NCAA tournament is known for buzzer-beaters and upsets, the cream rises to the top come the second weekend. Typically, at least one #1 seed gets to the Final Four but only once (2008) have all four made it in the same year. The most likely scenario is one or two #1 seeded teams make it.
Who will join them? Look for a mid-ranked team that catches fire at the right time (think UCLA last year) and another high-ranked (#2 or #3) team to get to New Orleans.
Trust your gut, and your eyes
You should go into filling out your bracket with a good idea of who you think will win it all. However, as you fill it, there will be times when you think “gosh, I don’t know about this!” When this happens, go with your gut.
The other main tiebreaker involved is the eye test. You’ve watched at least some college hoops this season, right? Who do you think is the best team in the nation? If you answered no and I don’t know then just ignore the second part of that sub-heading and good luck!
