Minnesota is ready to run it back. Things looked grim for the Twins last year. 89 losses. Jose Berrios was traded away. Nelson Cruz was sent to the Rays. With the White Sox still on the rise, the Guardians hanging around, and the Tigers on the come up, the gap to compete seemed narrow as ever.
The Twins didn’t run from the challenge this offseason though. They offloaded the Josh Donaldson contract and used that money to land the offseason’s grand prize in Carlos Correa. Not only that, they grabbed Sonny Gray from the offloading Reds and Gio Urshela and Gary Sanchez from the Yankees. They’ll have Byron Buxton coming back on a new extension as well along with a number of promising youngsters looking to make an impact.
It’s not going to be easy, but there’s a way for the Twins to pull themselves back up after their brutal fall from grace last year. Dethroning the stacked White Sox might not be realistic, but stealing a playoff spot with the expanded postseason feels doable for this team. All they need are a few things to fall their way in order to make some noise.
Twins Need to Reinforce the Rotation in Order to Win
If there’s one spot where the Twins are still a little lacking, it’s pitching. Adding Gray was a great start, but considering Kenta Maeda will miss most of the season due to Tommy John surgery, it’s merely a bandaid. The rest of the rotation projects to be very lackluster. Dylan Bundy isn’t the dreadful pitcher we saw last year, but he’s also unlikely to be a game-changer. He’s currently projected to be Minnesota’s number two. They also recently added Chris Archer, but it’s questionable how much he’ll contribute. The rest of their rotation spots are all currently going to youngsters. Bailey Ober, Joe Ryan, and Josh Winder are all solid prospects, but they are still relatively unproven at the Major League level.
Ideally, the next move is to grab one of the remaining Oakland A’s starters. Frankie Montas and Sean Manaea could instantly improve on what the Twins currently have. Montas in particular is coming off a very solid season with a 3.37 ERA and FIP in 187 innings. Moreover, he still has two full seasons left en route to hitting the open market in 2024. The real value for Minnesota would be in acquiring Manaea though. With the veteran starter set to hit free agency next year, Oakland is more eager to deal him and he’s not likely to be as expensive. Manaea offers a lot in the rotation too. He holds a career 3.86 ERA and 1.204 WHIP and just came off a similarly solid 2021 outing.
For a relatively low price, Manaea could stabilize a Twins rotation that awaits some breakouts from the young talent. Pitching is the one area that could hold Minnesota back as of now, but they need a few things to go right on the hitting end to compete too.
The Twins’ Biggest Bats Need to Step Up
On paper, the Twins lineup is one of baseball’s more underrated. Between superstar Buxton, All-Star Jorge Polanco, major contact bat Luis Arraez, slugger Miguel Sano, and now Correa, they have weapons. The question is whether those weapons will be available enough to pull the team together. All eyes will be on Buxton after he took he showed off Mike Trout numbers before a catastrophic injury. In only 61 games last year, he posted an insane 4.5 WAR with a 171 OPS+ and 19 home runs. Correa is in a similar boat. While he enjoyed a monster full 7.1 WAR season last year, he’s been notably injury-prone in the past. From 2017 through 2019, he only averaged 98 games in the regular season.
Outside of health, Minnesota will need some of its vaunted young prospects to step up in order to compete. The cavalry is about to arrive with Royce Lewis, Austin Martin, and Jose Miranda all knocking at the door of the majors. In fact, their top eight prospects all have an ETA of 2022. It could be a major boost for the team, bringing added depth to the lineup. Also of note is Alex Kirilloff, the Twins’ former top prospect who graduated in 2021 alongside guys like Trevor Larnach and Ryan Jeffers. Kirilloff struggled through injuries in his debut season, posting a .251/.299/.423 slash line.
Some of Kirilloff, Lewis, Martin, Miranda, and more breaking out only adds to an already potent lineup.
Minnesota’s Unlikely to Top Sox, But Playoffs Aren’t Unrealistic
Compared to their division rival White Sox, the Twins are still a few pieces away from becoming a major threat. That’s fine! The White Sox are not just the best team in the AL Central, but top-to-bottom one of the most complete teams in baseball. Last year, despite injuries to Eloy Jimenez and Luis Robert, the Sox racked up 93 wins, a 107 team OPS+ and a 117 team ERA+. Their pitching staff might’ve even improved this year with Joe Kelly and Kendall Graveman joining the already stacked bullpen. Taking the division from them is a monumental ask for Minnesota. A playoff spot isn’t as ridiculous to imagine though.
The one major roadblock standing in the Twins’ way is the AL East. With the Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Rays all competitive, carving out a spot in the AL is no small feat. That said, expanded playoffs make that option more of a reality. While it still means bumping off some of the AL East and possibly the Astros, Mariners, or Angels, the Twins have the potential to get over the hump. A little more pitching and some breakouts from the youngsters will put this team on the fast track to the playoffs.
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