Joel’s Way-Too-Early Central Division Power Rankings

Ladies and gentlemen, is it already that time? As the dust settles on the 2022 NHL season, a flurry of off-season moves has ensued, potentially shifting power to where there previously was none. Which teams have done enough? Who has reaped the benefits instead of sowing seeds for potentially longer-term success? Which teams have done surprisingly little? With so many teams chasing the undisputed champions of the world: the Colorado Avalanche, how has THEIR own division responded? It’s time to break it down and look at my way-too-early Central Division Power Rankings. 

For reference, dear reader, the absolute monstrosity that is the Avalanche has elected to mainly run it back, with a few key contributors departing. Most recently, they lost Cup catalyst Nazem Kadri. You can check out how that went down here. All in all, they still remain the class of the Central Division due to the continuity and considering how far away they are from all teams in the Central.

It was on display for all to see, running through two Central division opponents in the Nashville Predators and St. Louis Blues with relative ease, just how far behind the rest of the Central is. However, moves have been made, some interesting, some downright strange, and some absolutely needed, as the Central scrambles to close the massive gap that the Avalanche has created after it has settled. Pun intended. Nonetheless, crack open a cold one with me, and let’s dive into these potentially way too early power rankings.

Joel’s Power Rankings Note:

A few factors will be analyzed for these and all other power rankings moving forward. These are not your power rankings of old. All teams will be graded on how they did against each other in 2022 and what that means with all team moves made so far this off-season. Who has risen? Who has fallen? Key additions and subtractions will also be discussed. Since we have a reigning Stanley Cup Champion in the mix, every team’s cup odds as of writing this will be added, because why not?

Rank 1: The Colorado Avalanche

• 2022 Result: Stanley Cup Champions
• 2022 Record: 56-19-7, 119 Points
• 2022 Record against Central: 15-7-4
• 2023 Stanley Cup Odds: +425
• Key Additions: Alexandar Georgiev, Josh Manson, Artturi Lehkonen, Andrew Cogliano, Darren Helm
• Key Subtractions: Andre Burakovsky, Darcy Kuemper, Nazem Kadri, Nico Sturm, Tyson Jost

Are you really surprised? The Avalanche top this first edition of the Central Division power rankings, and for a good reason. The talent they are retaining is enviable, to say the least. To put it bluntly, it is the best under-30 core in the league. Against Central Division foes in 2022, they produced a blistering 90 goals while only giving up 73. Against all eight teams, the Avalanche also outshot their opposition by a staggering 951-778 margin.

An Avalanche of Success

With recent Conn Smythe winner Cale Makar growing up before our eyes, posting eight goals and 21 assists through the hardest 20-game stretch there is, leading the charge, expect the Avalanche to be favorites for this division once again and to defend Lord Stanley aptly. They are not going away anytime soon, especially with the pieces they elected to keep and build within, resigning Valeri Nichushkin, Artturi Lehkonen, Josh Manson, and Darren Helm. Notice a trend? Each extension did something cataclysmic to help the Avalanche on their long journey to victory, paved with blood, grit, and determination.

It is no mistake that the Avalanche have lost some pieces as well, but since this resilient group went through so much adversity last season, the coveted 2C spot can be filled aptly and in several ways. Mikko Rantanen and Artturi Lehkonen played the spot amicably well while the team was banged up. With the Avs top 6, many are interchangeable thanks to the emergence of Valeri Nichushkin on the top line. Because of this, Rantanen and Mackinnon no longer have to be paired together.

Avalanches, Not Only Fast, Are Deep in Nature

You could also throw in someone like JT Compher, who is in an *ahem* contract year. In order to do that, the team would likely elevate him from the 3rd line, meaning somebody gets called up. The Avalanche absolutely has depth squared away for the time being. Former Captain of the Golden Gophers, Ben Meyers, has impressed in Loveland while scoring a goal his first time up with the big boys. Mikhail Maltsev, a left-shooting wing, also put up 48 points in 56 games with the Colorado Eagles this year, a complete far cry from the 18-game, 0-point first stint.

Jacob Macdonald, while technically a defenseman on the depth chart, has slotted in and played forward for the Avalanche as well. The best way I can describe him is in the words of my longtime friend and podcast partner Jared:

“He is like a Kurtis Macdermid, he will lay the body, do what needs to be done, and challenge anyone. Difference is, he puts up points while he does this.”

Mile High Pundit: Episode 28: Eagles Mini-Series

This resonates immensely, as we have both watched him in person in Loveland. Besides Macdonald, the Avalanche also have depth at wing, with the energizer bunny Sampo Ranta and Oskar Olausson being in the mix as well. Justus Annunen is also taking strides as the Eagle’s top goalie, elevating his save percentage in the Calder Cup Playoffs.

Not to mention, imposing C Jean Luc-Foudy dressed with the team during the playoff run. Did I mention the Avs have Cale Makar‘s younger brother, Taylor, in their prospect pool? Yeah. Thought not. Besides the younger Makar, there are still intriguing options like Alex Beaucage as well as Daniil Zhuravlyov. (I may have had some inside eyes on Avs Development Camp Scrimmage Game). Sean Behrens is impressive defensively, and Ian Shane showed flashes of brilliance.

Rank 2: Minnesota Wild

• 2022 Result: Lost in Round 1 to the St. Louis Blues
• 2022 Record: 53-22-7, 113 points
• 2022 Record against Central: 13-10-3
• 2023 Stanley Cup Odds: +2000
• Key Additions: Brock Faber, LAK 2023 1st round draft pick, Tyson Jost
• Key Subtractions: Kevin Fiala, Cam Talbot

It cannot be understated that the biggest addition for this team was being able to get Kirill Kapriszof back stateside from Russia because, man, this guy is electric. I found myself watching more and more of his play, dating all the way back to his rookie year. He has that “it” factor. The same thing Mackinnon showed as a rookie, same brilliance, if that makes sense. The Wild, an already very good team against the league in general, saw almost half of their losses come at the hands of a Central Division opponent.

The Fiala Deal

They accomplished dealing with Kevin Fiala, which needed to happen. Looking at the team, with ultra talent like Kapriszof exploding onto the scene, Fiala was the odd man out, as the Wild would not have been able to afford his extension. Instead, they did the smart thing and traded Fiala in the midst of a breakout season at high value for Brock Faber, a gritty, right-shot defenseman that the Wild needed. Faber has already appeared for team USA in the Beijing Olympics.

Add a player like that to a gritty, opportunistic blue line already consisting of skaters like Jared Spurgeon, Jonas Brodin, and Matt Dumba, and how scary will it become? Faber is touted as a “world-class skater from the blue line.” I wonder who they are trying to emulate. The 19-year-old currently plays hockey for the University of Minnesota. They also overhauled scouts and strength coaches, respectively, adding David McLean and Matt Harder. The Wild added Cody McLeod as their player development coach as well.

Rank 3: St Louis Blues

• 2022 Result: Lost in Round 2 to the Avalanche
• 2022 Record: 49-22-11, 109 points
• 2022 Record against Central: 16-6-3
• 2023 Stanley Cup Odds: +2700
• Key Additions: Nick Leddy, Robert Thomas, Noel Acciari
• Key Subtractions: David Perron, Ville Husso, Tyler Bozak

Ok, to be fair, this is the only team in the division that beat the Avalanche twice in the postseason. This is the main reason why I view their offseason as a big shock. We have to be honest here, a team that was the deepest in the NHL last year had a relatively quiet offseason for a team scrambling to keep its Stanley Cup-winning core from 2019 together. Consider they also have the league’s 29th-ranked player pipeline as well, despite drafting in round 1 the past three years. Something has to change here. You are in a division with the cup champions.

Singing the Blues

It has currently put them at a bit of a crossroads. THE MOST important signing the Blues SHOULD have exacted was F David Perron. Robert Thomas is a nice consolation prize, but let’s get realistic for a second. A team that is already known for its physical blend of power and speed desperately needs more in the scoring department to keep up with the Kapriszofs and Mackinnons of the division. Perron was an asset that provided just that. The deepest team in hockey has lost some luster.

David Perron put up 200+ points during his tenure in Saint Louis. He had nine goals and 12 points during their run to the second round this past year. Losing his play and locker room leadership will be harder on Ryan O’Reilly (who he flourished with) than expected. Speaking of O’Reilly, he needs to be resigned next year, as does Vladimir Tarasenko.

This isn’t counting goalie woes behind Binnington, who really gave you one remarkable run in 2019, and nothing to show for it since. Husso was a revelation during the regular season. Now he resides in Detroit with what could be a very good Red Wings team. Thomas Greiss is not the answer.

Cap Woes in St Louis

Comparatively, the Blues currently have a measly $672,000 of cap space to work with. You do the math. The Blues, if they were smart, should offload Marco Scandella. This man is clearly not the answer as an effective second-line defensive pair with Colton Parayko, who comparatively broke out this year when moved away from this man due to injuries on other pairs.

You are paying $3.275 million for Scandella’s services for the next two years. That will look like a massive overpay compared to the likes of the talented blue lines of Colorado and Minnesota. The time to trade him was yesterday, hell, a month ago. For a team that pushed Colorado just as much as Tampa Bay, the overall lack of effort to go after game-changing catalysts this offseason says all you need to know.

So, Where Does That Leave Them?

In short, the Blues needed to resign Perron. They didn’t. After that, the important move that needed to happen was resigning Tarasenko, coming off a career-best 82 points in 78 games played. That hasn’t happened. They needed to extend key guys in O’Reilly, Thomas, and Kyrou. Only one of those three has resigned. They need a quality backup behind Binnington, who has begun to show cracks. Adding Thomas Greiss, who had a .891 save percentage this year, is a downgrade from last year.

Next year’s offseason and this year’s trade deadline will be crucial to this team. In what way? That remains to be seen.

Rank 4: Nashville Predators

• 2022 Result: Lost in Round 1 to Avalanche
• 2022 Record:45-30-7, 97 points
• 2022 Record against Central: 16-8-2
• 2023 Cup Odds: +5500
• Key Additions: Joakim Kemell, Ryan McDonagh, Nino Niederreiter, Kevin Lankinen
• Key Subtractions: Luke Kunin, Mathieu Olivier

I had always been in the belief that a quality backup goalie was the main separator in the gap between Nashville and their other counterparts in the St Louis Blues and Minnesota Wild residing in this tier, a trio of playoff regulars. The team did sign Kevin Lankinen, who is at least a step up from David Rittich and Connor Ingram, right? Eh, who are we kidding? They have Juuse Saros. They’ll be just fine. Lankinen provides little upside potential but a bit more stability than his two predecessors.

Noteworthy Moves

The Predators, unlike the team directly above them (ahem, get it together STL), recognizes their identity. They made moves to solidify that identity with some cunning and weathering their storm to re-sign their most important asset. They recognize they are in a division with the best and have quickly moved to close the chasm.

Filip Forsberg resigning was the most important thing to happen to the Predators. They added beautifully to that type of player by going out and nabbing Nino Niederreiter, an old Avalanche nemesis, as well as former back-to-back Stanley Cup Champion Ryan Mcdonagh. It all comes down to what the Predators have done around one of the best goalies in the league in Saros.

Staying Relevant

They also recognized when to trade longtime member of the team Mathieu Olivier, who was a member of their original core with Pekka Rinne, going to a Stanley cup. His style of play was outdated to the team, and Nashville recognized that. His minutes plummeted, and he became expendable. The Predators also adopted a no-strike policy with Luke Kunin, who did well with them two years ago but fell off a cliff this last year. They recognize the division they are currently in and said, “Thanks, but no thanks.”

They also happened to draft Joakim Kemell this year, a Finnish standout with a rocket of a shot. He is widely considered as one of the steals of this years draft. They were somehow able to keep Jeremy Lauzon as well throughout all this. The Predators have closed the gap with the Blues especially, managing to do what they have failed to do, keep continuity while adding tenacity. The Predators are closer to the 3rd spot in the Central than the 5th, respectfully.

Rank 5: Dallas Stars

• 2022 Result: Lost in Round 1 to Calgary
• 2022 Record: 46-30-6, 98 points
• 2022 Record against Central: 14-8-4
• 2023 Cup Odds: +4000
• Key Additions: Peter Deboer, Mason Marchment, Colin Miller, Will Butcher, Logan Stankoven, Francesco Arcuri, Ben Gleason, Riley Barber
• Key Subtractions: Rick Bowness, Alexander Radulov, John Klingberg, Vladislav Namistnikov

Toodles, Rick Bowness, have fun in Winnipeg. Enter Peter Deboer, who apparently wasn’t cutting it compared to the lofty expectations of the Vegas Golden Knights, who missed the playoffs for the first time in a long time in the Pacific this year. Although much of that had to do with injuries, I digress. This piece is not about Las Vegas.

Let’s Start

Peter Deboer brings a gritty style of coaching from Las Vegas; it fits in quite well with this Dallas team’s usually successful mentality of the pack it in and wear ’em down. I say usually for a reason. Dallas’ heavy way of playing would have been, pun-intended, a hit in the 2010s. The league is the fastest and most skilled it’s ever been, and you can’t hit what you can’t catch. They are on the back end of a forgetful cup run, losing to Tampa Bay and starting the infamous Corey Perry finals losing streak the hockey universe has needed to right itself. That streak continues to this day across three different finals-losing teams.

Key Moves

The Dallas Stars did well to resign Joe Pavelski to a one-year deal. They ended up trading Vladislav Namistnikov for a future 2024 4th rounder. Dennis Gurianov was also extended a year. Alexander Radulov signed in the KHL. Mason Marchment was signed to a four-year deal. Blake Comeau and Braden Holtby have left. Andrej Sekera has retired. The team signing blue liner Ben Gleason and forward Riley Barber from the AHL could pay dividends later on. Barber did get some playing time in the NHL this past year with Detroit. Their draft pick, Logan Stankoven, was the real deal for Canada during the surprisingly summery U18 World Juniors of 2022.

Are Stars Losing Luster?

This team still has a few pillars that Deboer will inherit. Most notably, goaltender Jake Oettinger put up a truly admirable fight in his first playoffs starting with the team. This team also boasts a blue line with Miro Heiskanen, drafted third overall in 2017. Any other draft class is a genius move for a defensive-minded team; however, the 2017 draft was no ordinary draft for defensemen talent. Cale Makar went fourth to Colorado and is here to stay in the division. Don’t get me wrong, I love Heiskanen; he’s just no Makar. That blue line also takes a hit with anchor Klingberg departing to Anaheim.

The forward core is as gritty as it is uninspiring. The bright spot, Jason Robertson, had 125 points in 128 games played, remains that, a bright spot. This core is aging. Does anyone remember the Dallas-Calgary series last year? For me personally, it was a bit of a snoozefest. Dallas barely crept into the playoffs at that, ousting a Vegas Golden Knights team that was battered and bruised.

So, Where is This Team Heading?

My bet is with growing talent out west, (Hello Los Angeles Kings, welcome back to relevancy!) Dallas misses the playoffs for the first time in a long time, and that is nothing to worry about if you support the Stars. They could just as easily sneak in as they could miss. Let Deboer guide this team and set it up for future success. Let him get his people and players to Dallas. Dallas brought him in to be competitive. They will be.

Rank 6: Winnipeg Jets

• 2022 Result: Missed Playoffs
• 2022 Record: 39-32-11, 89 points
• 2022 Record against Central: 14-6-6
• 2023 Cup Odds: +6500
• Key Additions: Rick Bowness, David Rittich
• Key Subtractions: Paul Stastny, Zach Sanford, Eric Comrie, Andrew Copp

The Winnipeg Jets finished an uninspiring campaign that saw them barely keep pace with .500 hockey. They finished over .500 yet missed the playoffs. This is about the worst place a team can be. Call it hockey purgatory, if you will. There are rumblings about the team dealing forwards Blake Wheeler and Mark Scheifele, but that may be more of a trade deadline move, so look for that to materialize. For Winnipeg’s sake, sooner rather than later would be preferred.

The Good and the Uninspiring

The good news is Pierre Luc-Dubois has resigned. If the Jets are going to compete this year, it will behoove them to lock up Luc-Dubois’ linemate, the lesser-known Svechnikov, Evgeny. So far, no qualifying offer in sight has forced Svechnikov to explore the market. This will come back to bite them. The team also brings in Rick Bowness as their new head coach, who was a long-term rock for the Dallas Stars.

Regime Change

Does Rick Bowness have an immediate impact on this Winnipeg Jets team? Looking at the current roster construction and knowing his philosophies, it is extremely tough to say. The top six is still ok with Luc-Dubois, Kyle Connor, Mark Scheifele, Nikolaj Ehlers, Cole Perfeti, and Wheeler. Their veterans are aging, though. Bottom Six? Drab. Defensemen? Interesting on paper, broken on the ice.

This team put together under Paul Maurice was expected to do things together last year. At the very least, they had to be competitive, right? They actually had an assortment of talent in the Gateway to the West, as it is affectionately known, for the first time in a long time. Their time on the ice painted a different picture.

Things did not work out, and that was putting it nicely. Maurice split, Copp traded, and everyone around the NHL watched multiple head coaches turn down the job. Talk about insipid. Since hiring Bowness, no big-name free agent has sniffed a plane to the ‘Peg. This team is at a crossroads. Buckle up.

Rank 7: Chicago Blackhawks

• 2022 Result: Missed Playoffs
• 2022 Record: 28-42-12, 68 points
• 2022 Record against Central: 5-15-6
• 2023 Cup Odds: +12500
• Key Additions: Andreas Athanasiou, Max Domi, Colin Blackwell, Jack Johnson, Petr Mrazek, Alex Stalock, Buddy Robinson
• Key Subtractions: Alex DeBrincat, Dylan Strome, Kirby Dach, Dominik Kubalik, Erik Gustafsson, Colin Delia, Henrik Borgstrom, Kevin Lankinen, Brett Connolly

Wow. What a difference a year makes. Just take a pause to view the additions compared to the subtractions this past offseason for the Chicago Blackhawks. It is clear the franchise has “pushed the big red button” when it comes to the choice to rebuild. This is not a drill. They have gone full nuclear.

Fallen Chief

Let’s rewind a touch. The Blackhawks had just traded for Seth Jones and Marc-Andre Fleury. Expectations were high coming into the season. Maybe, just maybe, Jones and a solid goalie were what the Hawks needed. Add that to the tantalizing talent in DeBrincat and Dach developing, and there were whispers of maybe this team transforming into something that could be competitive.

Indubitably, disaster struck. This destructive force was embodied by none other than Brad Aldrich. News continued to break over the course of the year on the ice. Aldrich had sexually assaulted two former players during a cup run back in 2009-10. The team then tried to cover it up. One thing led to another, and longtime GM Stan Bowman ended up resigning from his lofty perch after allegations pointed to him knowing about the abuse yet refusing to do anything to stop it or deter Aldrich from continuing.

Enter Kyle Davidson, who has since blown up the developing core, with most notably Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews among the few saved from his pivotal dissecting. Now, let’s actually talk about what this means for the Hawks.

Expectations

Compared to recent years, and let’s be honest, there have been some great recent years for this franchise if you look back at the last decade, temper any expectations. The good news is any line that theoretically skates with Patrick Kane will produce. It is just one of those facts of life. Water is wet, Patrick Kane produces. His old linemates, DeBrincat and Strome, can attest to that. The bad news is, where will other production come from?

This team produced the fourth-fewest goals in the league when looking under the lens of a per-game basis. A measly 2.6. In five-on-five situations, that number actually drops by a couple of tenths of a digit. Yikes. The powerplay ranked 21st when compared to the rest of the league.

In my Defense, Your Honor…

The Hawk’s blue line actually ranked surprisingly well compared to their undistinguished offensive side of the game. Remember, this team was pretty bad last year, so let’s throw overall team metrics like penalty kill rates and goals against per game out the window. They are in the bottom third in those categories, which makes total sense. Hold up. Break out the microscope here.

The Chicago Blackhawks 5-on-5 expected goals against per 60 jumps, massively so, all the way up to 13th in the league last year. This is very good news when you look at the macro of the team. This means there were some tenacious moments, and the team did generally fight when all things were even, getting thrown off by powerplays and other situations. Three of the eight players that eclipsed the 25-point threshold remain: Toews, Kane, and Jones. Remember those offensive ranks? This could be a good thing.

The Puck Stops…Here?

The goalie room saw a complete overhaul, removing Marc-Andre Fleury, Kevin Lankinen, and Colin Delia. They brought in Petr Mrazek and Alex Stalock to bridge the gap for now.

In closing, at least the Blackhawks actually have a real-life, non-mystical, ACTUAL NHL stadium, which cannot be said for my rank 8 team.

Rank 8: Arizona Coyotes

• 2022 Result: Missed Playoffs
• 2022 Record: 25-50-7, 57 points
• 2022 Record against Central:
• 2023 Cup Odds: +30000
• Key Additions: Andre Tourigny, Nick Bjugstad, Patrik Nemeth, Zach Kassian, Troy Stecher, Josh Brown
• Key Subtractions: Phil Kessel, Alex Galchenyuk, Loui Eriksson, Antoine Roussel, Jay Beagle, Harri Sateri, Anton Stralman, Kyle Capobianco, Dmitrij Jaskin

Nobody in their right mind had thought that the Arizona Coyotes would be good last year. For good reason. This team was in the throngs of a rebuild after a few years of making and subsequently bowing out of the playoffs.

What a Difference a Couple of Years Makes…

2020. Not too long ago, Derek Stepan, Taylor Hall, and Phil Kessel were working their hardest together to stay competitive. Arizona boasted the likes of Darcy Kuemper, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Conor Garland, and Adin Hill. Last summer, that changed. New GM Bill Armstrong was trying to right the wrongs of his predecessor, John Chayka, whose system just was not getting it done. Armstrong inherited oodles of strange contracts. He decided it was worth no headache of his. The Rick Tocchet/John Chayka era was over.

In the Throngs of Woe

Arizona is now in year two of its rebuild. Folks, should we check in on them and see how they are doing? Only out of love and concern, after all. We all saw a *quiet* year in the desert last year. The product the team put on the ice was about as deafening as their stadium. Ok, I got my shots delivered in that regard. Their guys need a stadium.

Arizona elected to build around and keep skaters like Lawson Crouse and Clayton Keller to build around. There is nothing wrong with this. Keller is legit line 1 talent. Crouse is an aggressive 2nd line winger. Adding guys like Nick Schmaltz and Barrett Hayton could mix extremely well among their top six.

Scoring?

The forward group of Schmaltz, Crouse, Keller, and company should continue to grow and develop with another year of chemistry. That being said, Arizona’s best talent is still probably not with the team yet in that regard. Their player pipeline is slowly filling out.

Expect Jakob Chychrun and Shayne Gostisbehere to control the point and quarterback for the Coyotes this year, and that is even if the former in Chychrun stays. Gostisbehere cannot be used for much else in his current form. Chychrun is a shot monster from the blue line who had a down year last year, and trade talks are currently swirling. I bet he ends up in Ottawa somehow, but that’s just me.

Defense and Such

Moreover, this group minus Chychrun is hardly special. I’ll throw out some current names. Patrik Nemeth. Josh Brown. Dysin Mayo. Gostisbehere cannot really be counted as a “defenseman.” Not in the truest sense of the word, (Hi Jaccob Slavin fans!) It really is no wonder the team traded for then Vancouver Canuck Troy Stecher to stop the bleeding. The team’s prospect pool is a literal drought if not for blueliners Victor Soderstrom and recent choice J.J. Moser. Chychrun is displeased with the current situation.

Goaltending

This team will be led by Karel Vejmelka in the crease. He secured the bag with a 3-year contract extension this past year. In his own right, at times, he single-handily kept Arizona in games, a la Darcy Kuemper, yet he wasn’t good enough to truly elevate Arizona out of the lowly sand dunes. His backups, Jon Gillies and Ivan Prosvetov, are just that, backups. However, the team may send one or both down to the AHL to trade for somebody else, but that remains to be seen.

T-Minus 30 Days

In conclusion, my friends, hockey season is already almost upon us. Who do you think will come out on top in the Central? Who will surprise you? What team will fall? Who will rise? Has anybody done enough to close the gap with the Colorado Avalanche machine? That remains to be seen. Would you change up the order at all?

Finally, I hope everyone enjoyed the read.

To keep up with the latest NHL news, check out the Belly Up NHL page. For more sports takes surrounding all things Colorado, follow my personal Twitter here.