The deals the Red Sox made at the trade deadline make you wonder if Chaim Bloom believes in this team and if he should have done more to remake the club with 2023 and beyond in mind. Boston improved its outfield offense, but at the expense of defense, and improved all-around at first base. However, the Red Sox also got worse offensively at the catcher position and in the bullpen. They are short a left-handed reliever now. If Bloom believed in this team, he would have acquired a reliever or two to improve its weakest link and kept Jackie Bradley Jr. around as a defensive replacement.
Red Sox’ Third of Four Deals at Trade Deadline: Tommy Pham
The #Reds today traded OF Tommy Pham to the Red Sox in exchange for a player to be named later or cash considerations.
— Cincinnati Reds (@Reds) August 2, 2022
The Red Sox had to give up virtually nothing to get Tommy Pham, the third of four deals they made at the trade deadline. Players To Be Named Later rarely turn into much. Pham, 34, is now the left fielder, Jarren Duran is in center field, and Alex Verdugo shifts to right field. Pham (-3 Outs Above Average in left) and Verdugo (-2 OAA in right since 2019) can hit, but this alignment is asking for trouble defensively. There’s no more safety net, either, now that Jackie Bradley Jr. is in Toronto.
Pham has some pop, hits the ball hard (84th percentile), doesn’t chase pitches (87th percentile), takes his walks (11 percent walk rate, 76th percentile), gets on base, can run the bases, can steal a bag or two, and has some speed (74th percentile in sprint speed).
He crushes left-handed pitching, too. Against southpaws, he is hitting .290/.371/.462/.834 this year (.666 OPS vs. right-handers). But the Red Sox want him playing every day.
The 34-year-old was a much-needed addition to a struggling Red Sox team. Boston is near the middle of the pack in Fangraphs’ baserunning metric, is near the bottom of MLB in stolen bases, and has the sixth lowest extra bases taken percentage, at 38 percent (Pham, 55 percent). They also have the fifth-highest chase rate in MLB.
Tommy Pham to the Red Sox should have been an overall good trade. Boston acquired a different hitter, in many ways, a hitter they’d been missing, improving team baserunning in the process. But they have sacrificed outfield defense to do it. Verdugo should be okay in right field, though. The Red Sox released their safety net, forcing themselves to play Duran in center field every day. I’d have a higher opinion on this trade if they didn’t do that.
The other odd thing? The Red Sox improved very little at the trade deadline yet are projected to still be over the Luxury Tax because of this deal. What’s the point of going over if you aren’t any good? It will only hurt them going forward.
Pham has a mutual option for 2023, so he might not just be a rental if things go well.
Red Sox’ Fourth of Four Deals at Trade Deadline: Eric Hosmer
The #RedSox today acquired 1B Eric Hosmer, minor league INF Max Ferguson, minor league OF Corey Rosier, and cash considerations from the San Diego Padres, in exchange for minor league LHP Jay Groome. pic.twitter.com/kgSu0ES81n
— Red Sox (@RedSox) August 2, 2022
The Red Sox’ last, most logical deal of the four deals made at the trade deadline was stealing Eric Hosmer from the Padres. How Chaim Bloom tricked A.J. Preller into paying all Hosmer’s contract except for the league minimum and sending two prospects back to the Red Sox has got to be a masterclass in manipulation.
Eric Hosmer instantly upgrades first base offensively and defensively, despite his declining performance over the last few seasons. Yes, that’s how bad Red Sox’ first basemen have been in 2022. Hosmer doesn’t swing and miss (84th percentile whiff rate) as much as Bobby Dalbec and doesn’t strike out (85th percentile) as much as Dalbec. He does walk about as much (both 58th percentile), though.
Hosmer is hitting left-handed pitching well this season. He is hitting .330/.370/.426/.796 with a 130 wRC+ against southpaws. That said, a lot of his production has come versus right-handed pitching. Since the start of 2021, Hosmer is hitting .270/.337/.393/.730 with a 104 wRC+.
The defensive metrics for Hosmer (-2 OAA, -1 Defensive Runs Saved) don’t look much different than Bobby’s (-5 DRS, -1 OAA), but he can pick it. And that’s almost all he has to do to make this trade worth it for the Red Sox.
A Zero Risk Trade for the Now and the Future
Acquiring Eric Hosmer helps the Red Sox for 2022, potentially 2023 and beyond. First base is stabilized, allowing Triston Casas to develop at his pace.
Under contract for three additional seasons, Boston has no obligation to Eric Hosmer. They can cut him loose whenever they want without financial consequence.
I don’t get why it took the Red Sox so long to acquire a natural first baseman. The season outlook might be slightly different if they had gotten one sooner.
Jay Groome Likely off Roster by 2023
The Red Sox didn’t give up much value in the last of their trade deadline deals.
Jay Groome‘s roster spot was likely in jeopardy next season, and he has fallen down the depth chart since having Tommy John surgery in May of 2018. He has also seen his development hampered by injuries since being drafted 12th overall in 2016.
Groome was on the 40-man roster this season but never got a chance despite all the pitching injuries Boston has experienced.
Groome had a 3.59 ERA with 13 home runs allowed, 45 walks and 96 strikeouts in 92.2 innings between Portland and Worcester in 2022.
The Prospects Coming to Boston With Hosmer
The prospects the Red Sox are getting with Eric Hosmer are not of the same quality that the organization got back for Christian Vazquez.
Max Ferguson, the Padres’ 23rd-best prospect, is a middle-infielder still in A-ball. He has hit .224/.366/.355/.722 with six home runs, 52 RBI and 57 stolen bases in 97 games there this season. Ferguson’s primary tools are speed and defense. Per MLB Pipeline, last year’s fifth-round pick has good instincts and knows how to get the most out of his speed. His internal timing allows him to make up for an average arm for a shortstop. He can also play all three outfield spots if he ends up in a super-utility role.
SS/2B Max Ferguson is ranked as the #Padres #23 prospect, per @BaseballAmerica.
— Tyler Milliken ⚾️ (@tylermilliken_) August 2, 2022
He’s slashed .221/.365/.358/.723 in 91 games between A and A+ this season, with just 6 HR but 55 stolen bases in 60 attempts.
Speed demon.#RedSox | #DirtyWater pic.twitter.com/olnEeYYvN5
Corey Rosier, drafted in the 12th round last year by the Seattle Mariners, was traded to San Diego in the Adam Frazier deal. Rosier, an outfielder, is also still in A-ball. He hit .263/.381/.396/.777 with six home runs, 37 RBI, and 33 stolen bases there before the trade. Per Baseball America, Rosier is a contact-oriented hitter that knows the strike zone. His best tool is his speed, helping him cover ground in the outfield and efficiently steal bases. Rosier is also an above-average defensive outfielder with arm strength that holds runners from taking extra bases. At a minimum, his ceiling is as a speed/defense-oriented bench outfielder.
Corey Rosier is the other prospect coming over to the #RedSox in the Eric Hosmer deal.
— Tyler Milliken ⚾️ (@tylermilliken_) August 2, 2022
He’s spent 85 games in A+ this season slashing .263/.381/.396/.777 with 6 HR and 8 3B.
Speed is a big part of his game as well. 33/37 on SB attempts.#DirtyWaterpic.twitter.com/tiBRd5tp59
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