Back in March, I put on my best prognosticating hat and made a prediction for every MLB team.
I really went out on a limb on some, and others were more obvious. I’ve been keeping track of these forecasts throughout the season, and now seems like a good time for an update. Here’s how I did.
I nailed some of them, way off the mark on some, and somewhere in between on many too. Let’s look back at how I saw things before any games were played.
MLB Predictions – AL East
Toronto Blue Jays – Vladimir Guerrero Jr. – 50 HRs
Like many, I was high on the Blue Jays and figured Vladimir Guerrero Jr. would be at the forefront of their success. After hitting 48 home runs in 2021, 50 seemed like a real possibility. With 27 homers on the season, even a historically great finish would see Vladdy fall short of the big 50.
Boston Red Sox – Trevor Story – team HR Leader
Story got off to a slow start, then got red-hot, then got hurt. He recently made a return to the lineup, but with just 30 games left, and Story 10 homers behind Rafael Devers, this is a long shot at best.
Baltimore Orioles – John Means – Top five in AL ERA
Not many saw the dramatic turnaround the Orioles have experienced this season. If you told me that they’d be in the thick of the AL Wild-Card race at this point in the season, I‘d assume that Means was a big part of that. But no, he’s been on the shelf since mid-April after undergoing Tommy John surgery.
Tampa Bay Rays – Wander Franco – Top 5 MVP
Franco has been grounded since early July with a wrist injury. Even before he went down, he was on nobody’s MVP leaders lists. Franco has shown some star potential but may be more of a secret weapon for the Rays if he can heal up.
New York Yankees – Isiah Kiner-Falefa’s best offensive season
Kiner-Falefa has vastly improved the Yankees’ infield defense. What he hasn’t done is approach MLB averages as far as hitting is concerned. Not only will he not achieve his best offensive season, but his 81 OPS+ is also his worst since his rookie season.
MLB Predictions – AL Central
Minnesota Twins – Byron Buxton Career High in games played (141)
I was feeling pretty good about his one about halfway through the season. Although Buxton was named an All-Star for the first time and is having his best season, injuries have crept in. He only played 14 games in the month of August and with 92 games played and only 33 left on the schedule, the math just doesn’t add up.
Kansas City Royals – Bobby Witt Jr. AL Rookie of the Year
Bobby Witt Jr. is the 13th rookie with a 20-HR, 20-SB season, and the 2nd this year, with Julio Rodríguez
— Sarah Langs (@SlangsOnSports) September 3, 2022
The only other season with 2 20-20 rookies was 1987: Ellis Burks, Devon White https://t.co/ZR2ok6btnx
In a typical year, the season Witt Jr. is putting up would garner significant consideration. After all, he’s hit 20 homers, 22 doubles, and has 26 stolen bases. However, the exploits of Julio Rodriguez, Adley Rutschman, Steven Kwan, and others have relegated Witt Jr.’s campaign to a possible top-5 finish.
Chicago White Sox, Most All-Stars
A good representation of how disappointing the White Sox have been this season is their lack of representation at the Midsummer Classic. Just two players made the cut, Tim Anderson, and Liam Hendricks.
Cleveland Guardians, Hold on to Jose Ramirez
Just over two weeks after my predictions post ran, it was announced that the Guardians were signing Ramirez to a seven-year extension. Yay, I got one!
Detroit Tigers, Winning record
This ship sailed with Detroit’s 81st loss of the season on Thursday. Maybe they can avoid 100, but I wouldn’t count on it.
MLB Predictions – AL West
Texas Rangers, highest win increase
With a 58-74 record, the Rangers have indeed shown improvement (60-102 record in 2021), but not to the extent I anticipated.
Houston Astros, Justin Verlander Cy Young Winner
This one looks like it has a chance of coming to fruition. Although he left his last start after just three innings, Verlander has an excellent chance of bringing home the top pitching honor for the third time.
Los Angeles Angels, No MVP this year
Shohei Ohtani is the first player in AL/NL HISTORY with 30 home runs and 10 wins on the mound in the same season.
— MLB (@MLB) September 1, 2022
(MLB x @budweiserusa) pic.twitter.com/9YoxhFpjIa
Shohei Ohtani is having a season similarly remarkable to last season’s. Mike Trout is healthy and back to his baseball-crushing ways. However, Aaron Judge has a chance to become the single-season Yankees HR leader and will likely command the bulk of the votes this time.
Seattle Mariners – First playoff appearance since 2001
After an impressive offseason that saw them bring in Robbie Ray, Jesse Winker, and Eugenio Suarez, among others, this pick seemed safe. Then they got off to a 21-28 start and things looked less sure. Since then, they’ve been one of the best teams in the AL and are firmly in a wild-card spot.
Oakland Athletics – Hang on to one young pitcher
Technically, I nailed this one! While I specifically mentioned Frankie Montas and Sean Manaea, Paul Blackburn emerged as an All-Star and was retained.
MLB Predictions – NL East
Atlanta Braves – Matt Olson NL HR leader
Matt Olson has ??? extra-base hits since the start of last season and that's more than any other big leaguer! ??? pic.twitter.com/HLbA7IfvDw
— Codify (@CodifyBaseball) August 28, 2022
Olson’s first season in ATL has been a success. He’s admirably filled in for the beloved Freddie Freeman and while his 27 homers are a solid total, he’s nine back of leader Kyle Schwarber.
Miami Marlins – 10+ wins improvement
Last season the Marlins went 67-95. This year they’re 55-76. So, to make me look like Nostradamus, they’d need to finish 22-9. Probably not gonna happen.
New York Mets – Lowest starters ERA in MLB
This seemed like one that I could get right. While the Mets’ star-studded rotation has carried the freight towards a successful season, they’re currently fourth with a 3.50 starter’s ERA.
Philadelphia Phillies – Most home runs in the NL
Although Schwarber is pacing the senior circuit in home runs, he hasn’t gotten enough help to propel the Phils into the top spot.
Washington Nationals – Nelson Cruz another 40+ HR season
You’ve heard of “How Stella got her groove back?”. Well, this year, Cruz starred in “How Nellie encountered a power outage”. With just 10 bombs, he will not add to his four 40+ homer seasons.
MLB Predictions – NL Central
Milwaukee Brewers – Corbin Burnes back-to-back Cy Youngs
Corbin Burnes, Perfect Back Door Cutter. ? pic.twitter.com/XPTebyrlkv
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 30, 2022
Winning the Cy Young in back-to-back seasons is extremely difficult to do and now, Burnes knows why. While he’s had a respectable follow-up to his otherworldly 2021 season, Burnes is not among the favorites to win the award.
St. Louis Cardinals – Tyler O’Neill Top 5 in MVP voting
For whatever reason, O’Neill just hasn’t been able to get going this season and is unlikely to receive any votes, much less finish in the top five.
Pittsburgh Pirates – Ke’Bryan Hayes 40 doubles
Despite the increased workload and opportunities, Hayes has yet to improve on last year’s 20 doubles.
Cincinnati Reds – Joey Votto batting title
I was banking on Votto turning the clock back. Instead, he’s regressed and is having the worst season of his illustrious MLB career.
Chicago Cubs -Seiya Suzuki 30+ homers
Suzuki has been a consistent contributor for the Cubs, but his power hasn’t translated the way I thought it would.
MLB Predictions – NL West
Colorado Rockies – Rocktober! (make the playoffs)
How do you add a player like Kris Bryant and get worse? The Rockies have found a way as Bryant has only gotten into 42 games.
San Francisco Giants – 100+ wins again
Everything just came together for the Giants last year. Not so in 2022, as they have their work cut out for them to even finish .500.
Arizona Diamondbacks – Zac Gallen All-Star
????? ???????.
— Bally Sports Arizona (@BALLYSPORTSAZ) September 2, 2022
Zac Gallen & Merrill Kelly are the @Dbacks first back-to-back Pitcher of the Month winners since Randy Johnson & Curt Schilling in 2002. pic.twitter.com/YteBGbSMyF
Gallen wasn’t named an All-Star but has been one of the National League’s best pitchers, with a 10-2 record and an NL-leading 0.94 WHIP.
Los Angeles Dodgers – Wild card once more
Haha, nope.
San Diego Padres – Fernando Tatis Jr. MVP
As the Padres drifted into irrelevancy last season as they almost always do, I forgot that Tatis Jr. got hurt and would be unavailable for the start of this season. Once I realized, I hoped (for the sake of making me look good) he’d return in June, hit 40 dingers, and still win the thing. Of course, nearing his return he was suspended a full season for PEDs. We’ll call it a lesson learned for both Fernando and me.
