It’s been a long-time coming Pats fans, but your New England Patriots are set to kick off in just two days! The anticipation has been nonstop since training camp began just two short months ago. The questions are endless. How will second-year quarterback Mac Jones continue to grow? Who’s calling the plays; Matt Patricia or Joe Judge? Is there a number-one receiver on this team? How will the defense counter all the turnover of the off-season? That and so much more.
On Sunday in Miami, the Patriots will look to address these concerns against a much-improved division rival in the Miami Dolphins. It was a hectic off-season for the fellow AFC East franchise. First firing Brian Flores at the beginning of the off-season and facing allegations of tanking and tampering. Then trading the farm for Chiefs superstar receiver Tyreek Hill. They’ve brought in a very interesting coach in Mike McDaniel, the former passing game coordinator from San Francisco. He’ll look to pull whatever untapped potential is within third-year signal caller Tua Tagovailoa. McDaniel was able to coordinate Jimmy Garoppolo to an NFC Championship game in 2021, what could he get out of a similar caliber quarterback?
This will be a great measuring stick game for the Patriots, and they get this sweat-fest game out of the way early, which has been to their benefit in recent matchups. Going 5-1 when they travel to Miami in the months of September and October since 2003. Will the Patriots kick off their season with optimism? If they are, here are some of the things they’ll have to do. Kick it off, Bailey! Let’s get 2022 underway.
Three Keys to The Game
Key #1: Get the Run Game Going
This Dolphins defense is no slouch. If we learned anything from our matchup with them in the regular season finale last year, it’s that they’re just as tough as ours. Sure, maybe Brian Flores had a big part of that. But this roster is loaded with talent. With corner Xavien Howard on the outside, it’s going to be tough for Mac Jones to get the ball to his receivers. Not that relying on the passing game is the way for this team to win. Instead, it’s the ground attack.
Rhamondre Stevenson and Damien Harris make up one of the best backfields the NFL has to offer. Harris rushed for 929 yards and 15 scores, and Stevenson kept up with 606 yards of his own and 5 touchdowns. I expect to see a closer split of carries this season, with Stevenson being more involved early and often. If the Patriots can get this ground attack going the Dolphins’ defense is going to be in for a long, physical match-up.
Key #2: Contain Tua Tagovailoa
The Pats’ big problem with Tagovailoa isn’t his arm. He’s pretty average in that department, but it’s his mobility that gets the Belichick defense in trouble. Historically, the Patriots just haven’t been able to keep up with quarterbacks that can move. Often being too old, big, and slow to keep them inside the pocket. The Patriots spent a lot of time this off-season slimming down at linebacker. They let old, big veterans walk like Dont’a Hightower, Jamie Collins, and Kyle Van Noy. Then replaced them with returning players in Raekwon McMillan, and Josh Uche, while signing hybrid safety Jabrill Peppers.
Setting the edge is going to be a big key for New England’s success defensively. Their corners probably aren’t fast enough to keep up with Jaylen Waddle and Hill. So, you’ve gotta pressure Tua, and get him to the ground. If he’s able to improvise, the Pats’ defense could be in trouble.
Key #3: No Offensive Miscues
It had been a story all training camp and preseason that the Patriots’ offensive unit struggled. They lost their offensive coordinator of a decade in Josh McDaniels this off-season as he went to the Raiders. Belichick replaced him with the duo of Matt Patricia and Joe Judge. Both are historically defensive coaches with minimal experience on the offensive side of the ball.
The miscues and struggles were no clearer than in the preseason finale against McDaniel’s Raiders. Where Mac Jones threw some ugly interceptions, and the Pats just couldn’t finish a drive. They’ve had two weeks to clean that up. If it’s not fixed by now, they’re in for a rough first month.
You’re going to want to give the Dolphins as little chance as possible on offense. You do that by protecting the football and owning the time of possession. If the Pats do that, they’re giving themselves a chance to win.
X-Factor: Rhamondre Stevenson
I said if the Pats are going to win this game, it’ll be through their run game. And I think it’s about time Rhamondre Stevenson takes over as the lead back in the New England backfield. Damien Harris is nice. He’s a great power option who will just run right through you for a solid three yards. But Stevenson is a more complete back. He’s versatile between his agility and power, all the while being an asset in the backfield. I think when the ball is in his hands, he’s the most dangerous player on this Patriots offense.
With the retirement of James White and the injury to Ty Montgomery, the Patriots are looking for a receiving option out of the backfield. I think Stevenson has the potential to rise out of that backfield and become that. I’ve been waiting for that big breakout game from the former Oklahoma Sooner, and I think week one could be his chance to do some damage.
Closing Thoughts and Prediction
The Patriots find themselves in peculiar standing in the AFC. Teams near their caliber or just below their caliber all improved in the off-season. Between the Dolphins, the Colts, the Raiders, the Broncos, and the Chargers the Pats have been surpassed on paper. It’s hard to find a way to squeak them into the playoffs when you try to predict the season. But I’ve learned not to doubt the wizardry of Bill Belichick nor the randomness of the NFL.
The Patriots found themselves with some dumb luck last season, catching fire at just the right time and taking advantage of some beat-up teams. Unfortunately for them, the schedule hardened at the end of the year, and they couldn’t hang onto the magic. Losing three of their last four games and then they got slapped in the wild card round against the Bills. It’s time to wipe the slate clean and put together a complete season in a competitive AFC playoff picture.
As for this week, it’s going to be a battle. The Dolphins are far more talented on paper. On both sides of the ball. That and the Pats’ historic struggles in the first month of the season, I can’t in good conscience pick the Patriots to win. But I think they’ll have the chance. They’ll have to be damn near perfect, but I think they’ll keep themselves in the game until the end.
Final Score: 23-20, Miami wins (New England falls to 0-1)
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