Step right up and beat the Mets. Despite a 101-win regular season, Queens will be without a deep playoff run this year.
It’s a disappointing end to what was otherwise a fantastic step forward for the organization this year. Thanks to gratuitous spending by Steve Cohen on key pieces, the Mets ascended beyond their limits from the Wilpons years. Max Scherzer and Chris Bassitt reinforced a rotation that already had Jacob deGrom, the best pitcher in the sport. Eduardo Escobar, Mark Canha, and Starling Marte added depth and valuable clubhouse presence. Throw in strong campaigns from Pete Alonso, Jeff McNeil, and Francisco Lindor among others, and things couldn’t have gone much better.
Then, the Braves decided to get hot. Really hot. New York didn’t collapse so much as Atlanta went on a truly absurd run to end the year, ripping the division from their grasp. A poor outing from Scherzer and a brutal one-hit performance later, and the season was over. It’s hard to win in October, but this loss will be particularly tough to swallow. The Mets are about to be rocked by free agency, so much so that the very heart of the team is in jeopardy.
Free Agency Will Hit the Mets Hard
In total, the Mets have a whopping 26 looming free agents, potential opt-outs, or option decisions. Not all of those are significant or even really played a role on the team this year, but the number of players that do provide massive value is shocking. Their offense got off light with the only notable losses being Brandon Nimmo and, to a lesser degree, Tyler Naquin and Dan Vogelbach. The latter two are mostly depth, but a Nimmo departure would certainly hurt. Although he’s been frequently injured, the Mets outfielder is a sneaky good player. He came away from 2022 with a 5.0 WAR season, posting a stellar 130 OPS+. By OAA, he was a pristine defender too, placing in the 91st percentile of all players.
On the pitching end of free agency? Utter devastation. The Mets could lose Carlos Carrasco, Taijuan Walker, and Bassitt in the rotation, and Edwin Díaz, Seth Lugo, Trevor May, Adam Ottavino, Trevor Williams, Mychal Givens, and more in relief. Seven of these players were among the ten best pitchers on the team by ERA, managing marks below four. Díaz will be a particularly brutal loss. Aside from being arguably baseball’s best closer with a 1.31 ERA and a jaw-dropping 297 ERA+, he was part of the heart and soul of the Mets. His entrance to Blasterjaxx and Timmy Trumpet’s “Narco” is the stuff of legend, bringing joy to Mets fans and all of baseball.
Of course, you may have noticed I left out one extremely painful loss that could be looming.
It May Be the End for Jacob deGrom in Queens
None of the free agency losses will compare to deGrom. The best pitcher in baseball is expected to opt-out of his deal in search of a bigger bag. Since 2014 when he was named Rookie of the Year, he’s been at the head of the Mets rotation. From 2018 onward, however, he’s been elevated to another level, posting an absurd 2.05 ERA since then. Injuries have been an issue, of course, but it’s manageable considering just how much better he is than the competition. It’s for that reason that the Mets signed him to a five-year, $137.5 million contract before 2019.
He’s grown beyond that deal, however, and the cost to retain him will be massive. Thanks to his health and age, he’s not expected to demand a long contract, but the AAV will be high. The Scherzer deal comes to mind, giving the ace three years at a staggering $130 million. Before any transactions, the Mets payroll sits at over $220 million. Were deGrom to take that same deal, he’d fling New York deep into the second luxury tax threshold on his own. Considering all they need to add, that’s not ideal.
Moreover, expect other competitive teams to bid hard for deGrom’s services. The Rangers have expressed a willingness to spend big this offseason with the cap space to match. The Braves could stun their rivals and slot deGrom in thanks to their cost-controlled core. As always, you can never fully rule out teams like the Dodgers and Yankees either. This is all to say deGrom won’t come cheap or easy and the cost to re-sign jeopardizes their other actions.
Mets Have a Troubling Offseason Ahead
Now, Mets owner Steve Cohen is no stranger to sky-high payrolls that blow past luxury tax thresholds. With a $282 million payroll, he landed the team firmly within the third bracket with a 65 percent maximum overage penalty. Given where payroll will sit before transactions and the fact that Cohen has proposed a limit of $300 million for future Mets teams, that pretty much discounts bringing back all of the biggest pieces lost.
For sure, some of these spots will be filled internally. Tylor Megill and David Peterson could take rotation spots. An entire season of Francisco Álvarez behind the plate will add some extra thump to the offense. Still, that doesn’t solve the sheer number of arms they’re about to lose. Maybe they find a way to dump the salary of James McCann and Dom Smith, but that’s a big if.
No matter what ownership or the front office does, this team will be worse off in 2023. It’s far from a death sentence, but it’s hard to imagine them being the king of the East next year. They don’t have the development pipeline nor the cheaper, early career extensions Atlanta capitalized on to build around. Losing this year puts them in a spot between win-now and reset
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