Pats Preview: Week 11 versus New York Jets

These aren’t your older brother’s Jets, Pats fans. We witnessed just a few short weeks ago that our favorite “free win” divisional rival is no more. As the red-headed stepchild of New York football has finally climbed to the top. At 6-3, they sit in second place in the division behind the surprisingly efficient 7-3 Miami Dolphins.

They even took it to the defending AFC East champion Buffalo Bills two weeks ago, winning a slugfest where nothing went Buffalo’s way. MVP-caliber quarterback Josh Allen regressed to rookie form and the Jets took advantage.

The Patriots are also coming off of a big win before their bye week. Pounding the Indianapolis Colts 26-3, in Frank Reich’s farewell game. Matt Judon tied the franchise record for sacks in a single game. As a team, they allowed just 181 yards overall. But the offense still found ways to shoot themselves in the foot.

Mac Jones still took sacks, the offensive line was still bad, and the receivers still didn’t get open. They had a lot of homework to do heading into the bye week. With a week to reflect, they get a big chance to showcase just what they learned in their time off against a good division rival. In an AFC East where every team is above .500, every win counts. So set it up, Bailey, let’s get this preview under way…

Three Keys to The Game

Key #1: Take advantage of mistakes

It was all there three weeks ago. The Jets will happily give you every chance they can to take momentum. Yes, they’re better than they have been in recent years. But Zach Wilson hasn’t proven to be that guy. The last time we saw him he was throwing the ball to everybody but his receivers. Mostly just Devin McCourty and other Pats defensive backs. Wilson isn’t that guy. Not yet anyway. Expose it.

Key #2: Limit YOUR mistakes

How soon we forget that the last time this matchup occurred, a roughing the passer call saved the Patriots. Had the refs kept their flag in the pocket, that play was a pick-six, and that game, and more than likely your season, is well over. The Pats cannot afford any more turnovers. Especially with a team as twitchy as the Jets. No fumbles, no turnovers, you should escape this game with a victory.

Key #3: Protect Mac Jones (for real this time!)

I feel like I’ve been beating this drum harder than opposing pass rushers have been beating Mac Jones. I don’t know what it is with this offensive line. No matter what they do, they get Mac killed. It’s certainly not helping folks like myself pleading with fans to stop chanting for Bailey Zappe. He came crashing back to earth in the second half of that Chicago game, where he looked more like the fourth-round rookie signal caller he is.

This task also belongs to the receivers. Not only does the line have to block, but the receivers have to get open. Jones cannot afford to hold the ball forever. And when nothing develops downfield because receivers are half-assing routes or just not getting open, the quarterback gets crushed or scrambles into pressure. Do your captain a favor and just play for him. I guarantee you he won’t make as many mistakes if that happens.

X-Factor: Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith

This offense plays well when the tight ends are involved. Their best plays last week came on a Hunter Henry seam pass that went thirty yards, and a Jonnu Smith screen pass that he took off with. The Mac Jones offense has showcased an inability to hit this position at a satisfactory level.

The Pats played their best game offensively against the Cleveland Browns, and both Henry and Smith had monster outings. It’s in the best interest of this team that these two see the ball way more often, and I think they’ll see a massive rebound if they get that started this week.

Final Thoughts/Predictions

As I stated before, the Pats didn’t exactly smack the Jets around last time out. A penalty very well could have saved their season. But I think history does matter to some degree. The Patriots haven’t lost to the Jets in 14 straight matches. 20 straight if you count just the home games. The last time came in Tom Brady’s 2010-11 MVP season, a bitter divisional round exit to Rex Ryan and Mark Sanchez. The Patriots have marked Gillette Stadium as a no-fly zone since.

I do give the Patriots the edge in this match-up still. I will never pick against Bill Belichick against teams he openly hates. That and young. Mistake-prone quarterbacks make this extremely difficult to give this game to the Jets initially. As much as anything can happen and these Patriots still can’t be trusted. I’ll take them to leapfrog the Jets and get themselves out of last place.

Final: 25-10, Patriots win (Improve to 6-4)

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