This Saturday, UFC 286 will take place at the famous O2 Arena, headlined by a welterweight trilogy between Leon Edwards and Kamaru Usman. Lately, the UFC has been loading up its cards; UFC 285 mostly lived up to the hype, and UFC Vegas 71 gave us plenty of action for a regular fight night card. UFC 286 will have to be spectacular in order to match the excitement of both of those cards.
The UFC made sure to put as many UK fighters as they could on this London card, so there will be plenty of British fighters looking to make a statement. Although the prelims have interesting prospects such as Lerone Murphy and Muhammad Mokaev competing, this article will focus on the main card and the prelim headliner.
Without further ado, here are my fight picks for the weekend (odds presented by DraftKings):
Leon Edwards vs. Kamaru Usman
After last summer’s improbable victory, Leon Edwards will enter Saturday’s main event on an all-time high. He had to take the long route to earn his title shot and made the most of it. Despite how much he struggled, he dug deep and pulled off a knockout that will go down in history as one of MMA’s greatest and most ridiculous comebacks. Edwards is on a mission to prove that his win against Usman in their rematch was not a fluke.
Kamaru Usman was one minute away from securing his sixth title defense before receiving the infamous head kick from Leon Edwards. He’s been a dominant fighter ever since he stepped foot in the UFC. Though his legacy is already secure, a win on Saturday will give him bragging rights over his biggest rival. One of the best welterweights of all time is on a mission to right his biggest wrong.
Prediction
Both competitors have had nearly 40 minutes of cage time to figure each other out. Usman has had the upper hand for the majority of those 40 minutes. As well-rounded as Leon Edwards is, the smothering gameplan of Kamaru has given him fits. The biggest question lies here; how will the knockout from the last fight affect both competitors? Despite receiving the victory last time, I doubt Leon will approach the fight the same way he did in August, considering how much of the fight he spent being smushed against the cage and outworked. As for Usman, does he increase the pressure, or will the KO make him fidgety and overly cautious?
Ultimately, I don’t see lightning striking twice. Leon is still a rangy sniper with solid fundamentals on the feet. While he has defended himself well in the clinch and on the ground, he can’t seem to keep Usman off of him. In the first fight, Edwards was mostly stuck in defensive mode. In the second fight, Edwards had moments of success; outside of the head kick, he took Usman down and threatened attacks from the back in round one. However, he can’t seem to match Usman’s breakneck pace. Kamaru’s pressure striking, mixed with his effective clinch work and takedowns will be enough to overwhelm Edwards.
Prediction: Kamaru Usman (-245) defeats Leon Edwards (+205) via decision.
Justin Gaethje vs. Rafael Fiziev
Whether he wins or loses, Justin Gaethje is guaranteed to put his body on the line for our entertainment. Earning a post-fight bonus in all but two of his UFC bouts, Gaethje is must-see television. He will be aiming to get his first win since 2021 this weekend.
Ever since getting off on the wrong foot in his debut, Rafael Fiziev has looked impressive during his UFC tenure. He was tested against Rafael Dos Anjos in his last fight, showing the qualities of a champion to pull off the win. On Saturday, Fiziev will look to put his name on the lightweight contender shortlist.
Prediction
Knowing the tendencies of both fighters, this fight will take place predominantly on the feet. Fiziev’s extensive kickboxing background is prevalent whenever he competes; even in a firefight, he stays technically sharp. He chains together his combinations with fluidity. His head movement keeps him mostly safe, though he still gets hit due to his willingness to stay in the pocket. Combine that with his dangerous arsenal of kicks and you have one of the UFC’s most lethal strikers. Of course, Gaethje is also a threat in the striking department; his raw punching power combined with his leg kicks are not to be trifled with. However, he will leave too many openings for Fiziev to exploit on the feet.
I don’t expect Gaethje’s wrestling background to play into effect, as it rarely ever does in his fights. With how many wars he’s had in the UFC, Gaethje’s waning durability will be a factor on Saturday. Fiziev is the cleaner striker with less mileage, therefore he will get the win.
Prediction: Rafael Fiziev (-230) defeats Justin Gaethje (+195) via TKO, round 3.
Gunnar Nelson vs. Bryan Barberena
Smack dab in the middle of the UFC 268 main card will be Gunnar Nelson. The Icelandic BJJ ace has not been very active since 2019, fighting for the first time since last March. An impressive win on Saturday will do nothing more than remind fans that he’s still around, at least.
Stepping in on about a month’s notice is Bryan Barberena. The tested vet will set his sights on providing another entertaining fight for the fans. He’ll have his work cut out for him this weekend, looking to bounce back from his previous defeat.
Prediction
Initially scheduled to fight Daniel Rodriguez, Gunnar Nelson will now face what appears to be an easier matchup on paper. Bryan Barberena is as scrappy as they come; a volume striker looking to get in the pocket and trade until his opponent breaks. He probably won’t get too many opportunities to trade with Nelson. Gunnar is a tricky karate striker on the feet, but would be foolish not to take Barberena down as soon as he gets a chance to. Once he gets the fight to the ground, his control and his back-taking skills will overwhelm Barberena. From there, he’ll sink in the rear naked choke and make it a quick night.
Prediction: Prediction: Gunnar Nelson (-350) defeats Bryan Barberena (+290) via submission, round 1.
Jennifer Maia vs. Casey O’Neill
After a hard-fought victory against Maryna Moroz last November, Jennifer Maia looks to extend her win streak to two. The former Invicta champion has held her own in the UFC, proving to be a tough out. 5-5 inside the promotion, she will be looking to break even with a victory against a hot prospect.
Casey O’Neill makes her long-awaited return to fight Jennifer Maia on Saturday. She will be competing for the first time in over a year, after suffering an ACL injury last summer. The undefeated prospect looks to make up for lost time with a big statement.
Prediction
Maia is a big step up in competition, compared to the previous opponents O’Neill has faced. She’s proven herself to be a tough opponent and has never been put away in the UFC. As a striker, her boxing has improved to levels of competency. Maia is capable of surprising opponents with a hard counter and can work off her jab. She’s a capable grappler and is strong in the clinch as well. The problem is that she doesn’t really enforce her grappling against her opponents.
O’Neill is a confident fighter who will not hesitate to push her style of fight on anyone. She may be hittable, but she pushes a pace and throws at a rate that’s hard to keep up with. She’s also a willing wrestler with a violent top game, but I don’t think she’ll pursue it too much here. O’Neill will not be discouraged by anything Maia does to her. Casey is a go-getter and will win this fight simply by doing more than her opponent. Her high-volume striking style will get the job done here.
Prediction: Casey O’Neill (-170) defeats Jennifer Maia (+145) via decision.
Marvin Vettori vs. Roman Dolidze
2-2 in his last four, Marvin Vettori has had mixed results against the UFC’s best at 185. He’s shown himself to be a formidable contender, but not good enough to be champion. On Saturday, Vettori will meet a surging contender to open the main card.
Roman Dolidze has been on the climb and will face his toughest matchup yet this weekend. He enters Saturday on a four-fight winning streak. A win here could position Dolidze for a title shot in the near future (depending on how the Adesanya-Pereira rematch goes).
Prediction
Vettori’s rugged style will give Dolidze fits. He’s tough, durable, and sticks to an aggressive game plan. Though not a KO artist, he fights effectively in the pocket, hitting with plenty of pop. He also has a kicking game to go with it, attacking all levels with consistency. His wrestling and his submissions from the top are competent, but not lethal. Dolidze could surprise with his heavy hands, but Vettori’s meat-headed and extremely hard to put away. I don’t expect him to perform the fight-ending sweep he did against Hermanson either. If he can’t find the opportunistic finish, expect Vettori to land more consistent shots on the feet, landing more takedowns and out-positioning him on the mat.
Prediction: Marvin Vettori (-270) defeats Roman Dolidze (+230) via decision.
Jack Shore vs. Makwan Amirkhani
Jack Shore is back after suffering his first pro defeat to Ricky Simón last summer. The Welsh native will look to get back on track and reclaim his spot as a highly-touted prospect. Formerly a bantamweight, Shore will be making the move up to 145 this weekend.
Dubbed as “Mr. Finland”, Makwan Amirkhani has gone through a rough patch lately; over his last five bouts, Makwan has lost four of them. His roster spot in the UFC would be in serious jeopardy with a loss here.
Prediction
Makwan is always going to be a dangerous fighter in round one. Dealing with an average athlete moving up in weight, I expect him to land a takedown and threaten early. He’s a crafty submission artist, especially from the front headlock position. The problem for Amirkhani has always been his gas tank; he fully exerts himself chasing for the finish and will gas out after six minutes.
Jack Shore is definitely rounded enough to survive that early scare. As the fight goes on, his well-versed approach will get the better of a flagging Amirkhani. He’s a more active, consistent kickboxer who throws with variety. He’s a systematic grappler who specializes at taking the back and securing RNCs. While both are solid takedown artists, Shore will have more success as the fight goes on. Expect him to endure some early danger, then proceed to grind Amirkhani into submission.
Prediction: Jack Shore (-500) defeats Makwan Amirkhani (+400) via submission, round 2.
I would like to thank you for taking the time to read my fight predictions. For more sports-related content, head over to Belly Up Sports. We have articles, op-eds, and podcasts available on our website. Want to continue this discussion? You can find me on Twitter @RevKoka.
