14 teams have appeared in the College Football Playoff. Let’s try and figure out who will be the 15th…
In the nine-year era of the College Football Playoff, only the 2020 edition has included all four teams making repeat appearances. Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, and Notre Dame were all CFP returnees. The other eight iterations have all included at least one first-timer. Yes, I know I’m cheating by including 2014, and also I don’t care. Chances are, somebody will be making their first foray into the Playoff in 2023, like TCU this past season and the Michigan/Cincinnati duo in 2021.
119 teams will strap it up this fall with hopes of earning their school’s first Playoff appearance. Man, that seems like a burdensome number to sort through, doesn’t it? Well, let’s fix that, friends. In this, my first of (hopefully) many articles on Belly Up Sports in which I will show clear bias against your team and solidify my standing as a “hater”, we’re going to narrow that down.
Here are my five most likely candidates, in ascending order, with reasons to believe they can get in, and what may stop them from making the College Football Playoff.
Utah Utes
Kyle Whittingham’s team is coming off back-to-back PAC 12 titles and will again feature a disciplined, tough, physical defense and strong play up front. Whittingham is among the game’s most underappreciated coaches, with 154 wins to his name as he begins his 20th (!!!) year in charge of the Utes. That includes seven seasons of double-digit wins and a strong 11-5 Bowl record. He’s done just about everything EXCEPT make the Playoff.
Not so fast, people…
So what will keep them from doing that in 2023? Well, there are a couple of obstacles. One is the uncertain health of standout quarterback Cam Rising, who tore an ACL in the Rose Bowl. And if he isn’t full-go to start the season, it starts to get fuzzy. There’s no easing into the schedule for Utah. They host Florida in Week 1 and travel to Waco to face Dave Aranda’s Baylor Bears in Week 2. The schedule also features road games against conference foes USC, Washington, and Oregon State. Then there’s the matter of replacing the production of Dalton Kincaid, one of the more reliable pass-catching Tight Ends you’ll ever see on a college field. Some tough circumstances in Salt Lake City.
While I’m reluctant to ever bet against a Kyle Whittingham team, the reality is that there’s probably too much standing in their way. Utah has made a lot of hay playing the underdog role. And part of me would love to see them get in, I love watching them play. Nevertheless, I don’t like their chances all that much.
Texas Longhorns
Ah, yes, the perpetually frustrating Longhorns. Just when you start believing, they break your heart. I’ll leave aside the “We’re baaaaaaack” jokes and just concentrate on what Steve Sarkisian will be putting out onto the field this fall: gobs and gobs of talent. Despite having to replace the running back tandem of Bijan Robinson (1580 yards rushing and 18 TD) and Rochon Johnson (554 yards and 5 TD), who both averaged 6 yards per carry in 2022, the offense still has a chance to be very, very good.
They’ve worked to improve their offensive line (to include depth), and the defense was better in 2022 (21.6 PPG Allowed). Texas never has a shortage of running backs who can play. Quinn Ewers will be looking to build on a decent first year as the starting quarterback, which included flashes of play that bordered on elite. Seriously, go back and look at some of the throws he made in the Alabama game before he got hurt. Goodness, Gracious.
Now, what’s standing between them and the College Football Playoff?
Well, the biggest obstacle will likely be a Week 2 trip to Tuscaloosa to face Alabama. The Tide will be replacing a lot of talent themselves this season, but the thing about Alabama and losing talent is, they usually have more. A raucous Bryant-Denny Stadium crowd will make this game a must-watch, but if Texas can’t come out with a win, their margin for error disappears. If they can, this will be their best chance to make the College Football Playoff in years. My guess is that they’ll be favored in at least 10 of their 11 remaining games. So there’s hope, especially if they can take another step forward defensively. But “hope” is a Longhorn fan’s least-favorite word, and they are far from the best bet on this list.
Tennessee Volunteers
Tennessee took a big step forward in Josh Heupel’s second year at the helm and looked every bit the part of a College Football Playoff team for much of the season. Right up until a Hendon Hooker knee injury during a shellacking at the hands of South Carolina derailed their hopes. Hooker is off to the NFL and in steps Joe Milton. Milton won the starting job heading into the 2021 season but got injured, and is anxious to show what he can do with another opportunity.
Tennessee averaged 46 points per game last season, including six games scoring 50+. Replacing the starting quarterback and the Belitnikoff Award winner isn’t easy, but Tennessee runs the ball much more effectively than they’re given credit for. They have no shortage of talent at receiver, and Joe Milton throws as good a deep ball as anybody. Plus, the offense’s spacing and route designs result in more wide-open receivers than you’d think possible. Schedule-wise, their nonconference slate is pretty easy, and at least they get Georgia at home this year.
Sounds Good, College Football Playoff it is. I’ll buy plane tickets. What’s the catch?
Georgia isn’t the only challenge on their schedule, though. They, like Texas, have a road trip to Tuscaloosa. And if you don’t think Nick Saban and Co. will be extra-motivated for that game given how the 2022 edition went, I’m not sure what to tell you. It really comes down to this: Tennessee has to win at least one of the games against Georgia and Alabama. It’s certainly possible; they did it just this past season. But they also can’t have any hiccups, like “Let Spencer Rattler throw for 438 and 6 TD”. I can see them making it in, but I have to squint a little more than I’d like.
USC Trojans
Another team that had legitimate College Football Playoff aspirations until the very end in 2022 was Southern Cal and their new Head Coach, Lincoln Riley. A loss to Utah in the conference title game handed USC their second loss and kept them from making the field. But they’re primed up and ready to take another shot at it. Kind of.
If you’re looking for reasons USC can go to the CFP this year, you don’t need to look very hard. Start with the return of 2022 Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams (4537 yards and 42 TDs passing, with another 10 rushing TDs). The Trojans have talent in the backfield, and at receiver, and have improved O-Line depth. They’ll likely be 6-0 before they really get tested, and can reasonably be expected to average 40+ points through the first half of the season.
Wait why did you say “Kind of”? What are you not telling me?
I’ll explain. The back end of the schedule is not as forgiving as the front, for starters. In fact, they play at Notre Dame, get Utah and Washington at home, and go to Oregon in a 5-week stretch. And that’s without a bye week unless you’re counting that trip to Cal. Which, is fair. So that improved depth up front that I just talked about? It’ll probably get tested.
I was close to giving USC the best chance to make the CFP for the first time. Real close. But I couldn’t. Just didn’t quite get there. Because for as great as Caleb Williams is, and he’s fantastic, I don’t trust that defense (29.2 PPG Allowed… yuck). While they had a lot of takeaways over the course of the season, forcing turnovers isn’t really all that sustainable. It’s actually a bit mystifying how you can generate that many turnovers and still give up 30 a game. But then you watch them tackle and it starts to make sense. At some point, you need to make stops when it matters. They couldn’t do it against Utah (twice) and it kept them out of the playoff. And in the Cotton Bowl, they couldn’t get stops against Tulane, blowing a 15-point lead in the final six minutes.
Caleb Williams may very well drag this team to the CFP anyway; he’s that good. But he’ll have to drag that defense as it’s kicking and screaming the whole time.
Penn State Nittany Lions
Remember when I said Kyle Whittingham is underappreciated? I’d add James Franklin to that list. Further down, sure, but he’s on it. He’s had two losing seasons in his 12 years as a Head Coach, and both are pretty easily explainable. 6-7 in his first year at Vanderbilt in 2011, and 4-5 in the weird 2020 COVID year. He has four 11-win seasons at Penn State. He went to three straight Bowl games and had back-to-back Nine-win seasons at Vanderbilt. VANDERBILT!!! Had them in the top 25 of the final AP poll twice! The man can coach, period.
The 2022 Nittany Lions rode a strong defense (18.2 ppg allowed) and a two-headed monster in the backfield with Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen to an 11-2 record and Rose Bowl win. Singleton and Allen combined for 1,928 rushing yards and 22 Touchdowns. Most impressively, they somehow did that while also both being true Freshmen. Scary. They lost at Michigan pretty convincingly and dropped a home contest to Ohio State that was a closer game than the final score might indicate. This team was as close to the College Football Playoff as they’ve ever been.
OK, but that was last year. What about this year’s College Football Playoff?
So the Running Backs are back, much of the stout defense is back, and the coaching staff is mostly back. But longtime starting Quarterback Sean Clifford is not. Enter highly-touted Drew Allar, the #4-ranked QB in the 2022 class per the 24/7 Sports Composite rankings. He may not be Chad Powers, but the kid can play, showing some promise in limited action so far. If he can get settled in through the first two games of the season, games against Illinois and Iowa will provide a good indicator of his progress. Then he gets another couple of layup games to work out any kinks before that showdown with Ohio State. And given their ability to move the ball on the ground, it won’t be all riding on his shoulders.
Penn State is in a similar situation as Tennessee. They have two games against conference opponents with just as good of a shot to go to the Playoff. There’s no easy path with a 4-team field, which we should keep by the way, but that’s an argument for a different day. Let’s pace ourselves. So, much like Tennessee, Penn State has to win at least one of those matchups against Ohio State and Michigan. Has to, or they have no shot. But they can’t make the whole season about those two games, either. If they do, that trip to Maryland will start to look an awful lot like a Trap Game. But I’ll trust James Franklin to keep the team’s focus where it needs to be.
The College Football Playoff envelope, please…
A strong defense coupled with a balanced offense is a great starting point. And the Nittany Lions have best demonstrated that they have those two things. Allar’s upside is enormous, and he has the safety net of those two Running Backs. Not having to rely primarily on a talented-yet-unproven young QB gives me the most confidence in Penn State. They will have their challenges too, obviously. Getting into the Playoff is supposed to be difficult. But they’re my pick to be the next team to make its first appearance in the College Football Playoff. Surely I won’t regret this choice in 8 months, right? Just like Bob Marley sang in his 1978 hit song “Time Will Tell”… well… time will tell.
Eric Mulhair is the Co-Host of The South Endzone Podcast and a contributing writer for Belly Up Sports covering College Football. You can follow him on Twitter for the most up-to-date info on Podcast/Article releases, or even just to argue about College Football.
