The first two teams have moved into the Western Conference playoffs; the Phoenix Suns and the Denver Nuggets. These two teams met in the 2021 Western Conference semifinals where the Suns would win in four games by an average margin of nearly 16 points. Many things have changed since that series. Nikola Jokic has another MVP and has a good case for a third, Jamal Murray is playing this time around, and Kevin Durant is a Sun. We could look at the basics and say that Durant is a bigger addition than Murray so the Suns are in four again, but this Nuggets team is not that same squad.
Suns Keys To Victory
The Suns are coming off a gentleman’s sweep of the Los Angelos Clippers, but this wasn’t the satisfying domination people were expecting. Kawhi Leonard got hurt early and couldn’t return and Paul George wasn’t available at all. Nonetheless, not playing with your food and winning in five games gets a round of applause.
The first key the Suns need is their consistent efficiency from everywhere on the floor. They lead all playoff teams in offensive rating at 123.6, 2.4 more than the next team. They’ve also been second in three-point and field goal percentage in the playoffs. What makes them so efficient is their dedication to all three levels of shooting. They are shooting 57.6 percent from 15 to 19 feet on 13.2 attempts a game. The next closest team in attempts is the Miami Heat at 8.3 and they’re shooting 45.5 percent. If the Suns stay dedicated to using every foot of offensive floor to shoot the ball, they can put Denver in a blender.
The second key and this may be most important, is Deandre Ayton defending Jokic. Jokic shot 47.7 percent from the field against Ayton in their last playoff series and, while that’s good for 99 percent of players, Jokic was flustered. If Ayton can bring that same defense he provided in 2021 and make someone else beat you, they’re in great shape.
Finally, the Suns’ starters better be ready to run 40 minutes a night against this Denver team. Their bench is bad but we will get into that during the Nuggets.
Nuggets Keys To Victory
The Nuggets took care of business against a Timberwolves team that has some questions to answer this offseason, but still a commanding series win for Denver. They couldn’t quite complete the sweep but it was good to get out of there early with some positive notes.
The first key to victory is the bench and by a wide margin. The Suns’ bench gets the least amount of minutes in the league and only scored 72 points across those five games, both good for a bottom-two spot among all postseason squads. This doesn’t mean the Nuggets’ bench needs to go outperform the Suns’ bench because they won’t see them quite often. They need to take advantage of the minutes where the Suns are forced to sit either Booker or Durant. If they can hop in with Murray or Jokic and stay afloat while giving one of them a rest, they can make this a long series.
The second key is Jamal Murray. In the Nuggets’ last 20 postseason wins with Murray, he is the leading scorer in 14 of those. Playoff Murray could actually be a thing, he is one of the best playoff risers in the NBA. Jokic is going to be the MVP-caliber guy he is and try to offset Durant. If Murray can continue this play of 27.2 points on 47.1 percent from the field and 42.9 percent from three, he can potentially match the flaming-hot, Booker.
If the first two keys succeed, it’s up to guys like Aaron Gordon and Michael Porter Jr to provide scoring and defense. Mainly Gordon is the defensive part, but Porter giving effort would definitely help.
Final Thoughts And Predictions
This is going to be a show. The Nuggets have been overlooked because of their past and the Suns might’ve been crowned too early. With that being said, I have the Suns winning in seven games. In a series with two great teams, I tend to lean on the guys with the experience. Chris Paul and Durant have withstood competitive series and Booker and Ayton have their fair share of intense experience.
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