Viewed as the missing piece, expectations at Clemson for new Offensive Coordinator Garrett Riley are sky-high.
Watching Clemson the last two years, you could be forgiven for forgetting that this team won the ACC and went to the College Football Playoff six years straight. Especially when they possessed the ball. The team did go 21-6 the past two seasons and won the ACC yet again in 2022. But still, the word that keeps coming up when people talk about Clemson is “disappointing”. Most of the frustration centered around the offense’s struggles. Enter Garrett Riley.
Riley enters his third Offensive Coordinator job with more hype and expectations than the first two combined. When you direct the offense of a team comprised mostly of three-stars to the National Championship game, that’s bound to happen. Especially if that third job is at a place with annual Championship aspirations. Head Coach Dabo Swinney concluded that the offense simply wasn’t good enough to take Clemson to another title. The first step in fixing a problem is identifying, specifically, what’s causing the problem. In this case, Swinney identified two root causes: Poor Quarterback play and a stale, overly-conservative scheme.
So where did it go wrong?
Clemson lost former Offensive Coordinator Tony Elliott after the 2021 season when he took the Head Coach job at Virginia. To replace him, Swinney elevated Quarterbacks Coach Brandon Streeter (himself a former Clemson QB). Streeter had been with the program since 2015 as the Quarterbacks Coach, and Swinney is notoriously loyal; the promotion made some amount of sense. All the same, it was widely questioned, given how Clemson’s offense had looked in 2021.
Quarterback DJ Uiagalelei looked spectacular in limited action as a true Freshman in 2020, but struggled for much of 2021. Playing through nagging injuries, he completed 55.6 percent of his passes for 2,246 yards, 9 Touchdowns, and 10 Interceptions. His 6.0 Yards per Attempt and 5.3 Adjusted Yards per Attempt ranked 102nd and 103rd in the country, respectively. Clemson was the opposite of “explosive”. Replacing the Offensive Coordinator with the Quarterbacks Coach who is going to run the same offense? Dicey.
Uiagalelei had gotten healthy and looked noticeably slimmer coming into 2022, and did play better. Not great, but better. His 2,521 Yards, 61.9 percent completion rate, 22 Touchdowns, and 7 Interceptions were all improvements. So were his 6.8 Yards per Attempt (80th) and 7.2 Adjusted Yards per Attempt (tied for 61st). Clemson’s offense improved overall, increasing their scoring average from 26.3 to 33.2 points per game. But it wasn’t enough. Although they won the ACC, they missed the Playoff and got drummed by Tennessee in the Orange Bowl. Swinney had seen all he needed (or wanted) to see.
A New Man Pulling the Trigger…
One of the problems kind of solved itself. By benching Uiagalelei in the ACC Championship game and announcing that highly-regarded Freshman Cade Klubnik would start the Orange Bowl, Swinney had effectively closed the book on the “DJU Era” at Clemson. Uiagalelei subsequently entered the transfer portal two days later on December 5th.
Klubnik enrolled in January 2022 after an illustrious high school career playing at the 6A Classification in Texas, which is NOT for the timid. He showed up to Clemson with all of the high marks you would expect for a Five-Star recruit: Arm strength, Accuracy, Mobility, Decision-making, and Pocket Awareness. He was widely viewed as a multi-year starter at the Power Five level with First-Round NFL Draft potential.
… and a New Man Calling the Shots
The other solution wasn’t so straightforward. Chiefly, it required Swinney to do something that a lot of people (myself included) didn’t think he would do. He fired Brandon Streeter.
Now, I’m a big believer in the idea that you don’t fire a coach unless you’re damn sure you can hire someone better. If you look at the job Streeter did in 2022, that bar may not be very high. However, it’s still a bar and you still need to clear it. Otherwise, what’s the point?
So what type of candidate do you go after? One who has outperformed your last two Coordinators at two different schools is a fantastic starting point.
| 2021 SMU | 2021 Clemson | 2022 TCU | 2022 Clemson | |
| Points/Gm | 38.4 (10th) | 26.3 (82nd) | 38.8 (9th) | 33.2 (30th) |
| Yards/Gm | 466.8 (13th) | 360.8 (100th) | 455 (27th) | 410.8 (48th) |
| Yards/Carry | 4.6 (50th) | 4.6 (50th) | 5.1 (t-22nd) | 4.6 (t-44th) |
| Yards/Pass Att | 7.8 (52nd) | 6.01 (120th) | 8.65 (8th) | 6.8 (80th) |
| Yards/Completion | 11.7 | 10.9 | 13.45 (15th) | 10.92 (111th) |
| Passer Rating | 154.8 (17th) | 109.7 (121st) | 157.0 (15th) | 131.3 (73rd) |
Okay, so That’s a Whole Lot of Numbers
Looking at the chart, in a very “macro” sense it’s obvious that Garrett Riley’s last two offenses have outperformed Clemson’s last two offenses by a significant margin. He didn’t just wake up one morning with a Broyles Award trophy on his mantle, after all. But what, specifically, jumps out at you? Moreover, what conclusions do you draw from it?
For me, it’s the Yards/Completion numbers first. If you’ve watched Clemson the last two years, the total lack of downfield passing has stood out. Yards per Attempt has become a popular stat to judge quarterback play, and there’s certainly value in it. It gives you a great starting point to judge a quarterback’s efficiency. Alternatively, Yards per Completion can give you a better picture of what an offense is trying to do, in terms of aggressiveness. And it’s clear as day: Clemson was completely uninterested in letting DJ Uiagalelei push the ball down the field. What’s not as clear: is whether that was a Brandon Streeter issue, a DJ Uiagalelei issue, or some combination of both. But whatever the cause, the results were underwhelming, to say the least.
So What Should We Expect From Garrett Riley?
Undoubtedly, Clemson fans are hoping for a similar outcome to what happened at Oklahoma when Bob Stoops hired Garrett Riley’s older brother after the 2014 season. That seems aggressive, so let’s stay away from “hoping” and try to stick a little closer to “reasonably expect”.
Firstly, I think it’s reasonable to expect, based on the numbers above, that Clemson will emphasize downfield passing more than in the last two years. That difference will be the most apparent when you watch them, I’d imagine. I’ll be shocked if 2023 Clemson puts up another season of 10.9 Yards/Completion.
Secondly, Garrett Riley’s scheme resulted in a lot of open receivers in space during his SMU and TCU stints. Most powerhouse high school programs in Texas incorporate a heavy dose of Air Raid concepts in their offense, and Klubnik’s is no exception. The scheme won’t be a big adjustment. So it stands to reason that those Passer Rating and Yards per Attempt numbers will look much better as well.
A “hidden” benefit to a revamped, more aggressive passing attack is that it should open some things up for Clemson’s stable of horses in the backfield. Will Shipley and Phil Mafah combined for just under 1,700 rushing yards and 19 Touchdowns. Getting back to that 5+ Yards per Carry pace seems likely, provided the passing game improves as we (or at least “I”) expect.
So, Home Run Hire, Right?
Well, I’m not normally one for bold proclamations (or am I?) but yeah, I think it is. I can’t think of anyone else Dabo could have hired that would inspire as much optimism as Garrett Riley. Can you?
Not to rain on Clemson’s parade before the Grand Marshal has even finished tying their shoes, but if this arrangement is as successful as most expect, Garrett Riley’s time at Clemson will be short-lived. Turning out three excellent offenses at three different schools in three different conferences, in three consecutive years? That will get you a Head Coaching job.
Needing to replace your Offensive Coordinator because he was a highly-sought after Head Coach candidate based on his work as your OC is a problem Dabo Swinney will be happy to have. It’s a much better situation than having to fire a longtime assistant and friend because he didn’t do a good enough job, at least.
Swinney has been notoriously stubborn in many ways. He’s been extremely reluctant to use the Transfer Portal and work with the boosters to utilize Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) to help improve roster talent. The Streeter hire was another case of that; sticking with what he knows and is comfortable with. To his credit, he made a tough decision, one that looks to have a real chance at getting him and his Tigers back to where they’re used to being.
Eric Mulhair is the Co-Host of The South Endzone Podcast and a contributing writer for Belly Up Sports covering College Football. You can follow him on Twitter for the most up-to-date info on Podcast/Article releases, or even just to argue about College Football.
