Who saw a breakout coming for Jarren Duran in 2023? I don’t know if even the Red Sox themselves saw this coming.
It’s a best-case scenario, really.
A lot of work on his hitting mechanics, defense, and mindset – plus advice from two former Red Sox – all have played a part in Jarren Duran’s success in 2023.
A supportive clubhouse environment with supportive teammates who don’t make you feel like a bother goes a long way, too.
On top of it all, Duran is visibly having fun again, something he’d lost in 2022.
2022 Was as Bad as It Gets for Duran
2022 wasn’t a good year for Jarren Duran (or the Red Sox) on or off the field.
Duran hit .221/.283/.363/.645 with a 78 wRC+ over 58 games. He hit 14 doubles, three triples, 3 HR, 23 runs scored, 17 RBI, and had seven stolen bases. He walked only six percent of the time and struck out at a 28 percent clip.
Most of the balls Duran hit were ground balls (50 percent), others were fly balls (34 percent). But few were line drives (15 percent). And he was pulling almost everything he hit into play, chasing pitches out of the zone a lot (31 percent) and swinging and missing too much (28 percent).
On his struggles in 2022, Duran said, “I made so many swing adjustments just because I was trying to be better for everybody, from the fans to teammates to coaches.“
The California native was very closed off and internalized his failures, not wanting to be a bother to anyone.
Last August, Duran said about being closed off, “I’m kind of just tearing myself up internally and get pretty depressed and stuff like that. I find it hard to reach out to people because I don’t want to bother other people with my problems.”
He continued, “(My teammates) have their own problems too. I don’t know what they are going through so I try not to reach out to too many people. I don’t want to bug them with my problems.”
A converted infielder obviously still learning the outfield, Duran had -9 Defensive Runs Saved and -2 Outs Above Average in center field. His routes were terrible, but his jumps were decent (66th percentile).
The script has wholly flipped for Jarren Duran (and the Red Sox) in 2023, though, in all facets, thankfully.
Jarren Duran’s 180 Is Helping Red Sox Succeed in 2023
Jarren Duran is a different player in 2023. You can tell he’s playing with confidence and is having fun again.
The 26-year-old outfielder said of his renewed mindset, “It was just an approach I took to better myself mentally and physically, just take a positive approach to everything, try not to beat myself up too much. I was tired of being so down on myself. I looked in the mirror and said, ‘All right, it’s time to either be happy or go down this road of being sad and negative and depressed all the time.”
That’s easier to do when you have supportive teammates and veteran leaders that encourage you.
Dustin Pedroia worked with him during spring training as well. That doesn’t hurt.
Of course, his changed batting stance is playing as significant a role as anything.
Over 29 games with the Red Sox in 2023, Jarren Duran is hitting .356/.412/.574/.987 with a 166 wRC+. He has 13 doubles, 3 HR, 16 runs scored, 19 RBI, and seven stolen bases. His walk rate is up slightly, at eight percent, and his strikeout rate is down slightly, at 24.6 percent.
Duran is hitting seemingly everything hard (46.7 percent) and is hitting line drives (29 percent) like the Red Sox always believed he could.
The Red Sox’ seventh-round pick in 2018 is chasing less often (23 percent) and whiffing slightly less (24 percent), and the balls he puts in play are getting hit up the middle (43 percent) and to the opposite field (33 percent).
Jarren Duran is over-performing, but the 2023 Red Sox still have a good player on their hands.
The Sox’ center fielder has a .288 xBA (88th percentile)/.462 xSLG (72nd percentile)/.370 xwOBA (83rd percentile). Duran is in the 83rd percentile in chase rate, 76th percentile in hard-hit rate, 61st percentile in barrel rate, 59th percentile in average exit velocity, and 55th percentile in whiff rate.
He still strikes out too much (35th percentile) and doesn’t walk much (42nd percentile).
It’s Not Only Duran’s Offense That’s Improved
Duran has improved drastically on defense, too, thanks partly to Jackie Bradley Jr.
Talking about the advice JBJ gave him, Duran said, “He always talked about how shagging is what helped him get better because he realized what balls he can get to and what balls he can’t get to. I just shagged.”
Duran continued, “I think just having a good first step is important. […] Just made sure my reads were good and I trusted it and I didn’t second guess it when I was getting my jump to the ball.”
Jarren Duran has 0 DRS and 2 OAA (87th percentile) in center for the Red Sox in 2023. His outfield jumps (not qualified yet to rank in ’23) got even better, and his routes have improved dramatically.
The 2023 version of Jarren Duran looks like a legit MLB contributor for the Red Sox, a significant development for this organization.
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