After back-to-back National Championships, the Georgia Bulldogs are trying to make history.
Minnesota won their third straight National title in 1936, the last College Football team to do so. There’s some dispute about 1944-46 Army; pre-BCS, there are numerous examples of shared Championships. But Minnesota is generally regarded as the last team to run off three “undisputed” titles.
After consecutive CFP victories, Georgia certainly looks like a team that’s primed to take a run at it. Kirby Smart‘s Bulldogs are the betting favorites, with most sportsbooks listing them in the +225 range. It feels similar to the early 2000s when you could wager on PGA Tournaments, and among your choices were “Tiger Woods” and “The Field”.
Deciding if they can pull it off or not requires digging into both Georgia and “The Field”. Identifying and examining reasons Georgia can or cannot win it all, and reasons The Field can or cannot prevent them from doing so. If not Georgia… Who? Let’s give it a shot.
The Case for Georgia
Any discussion of the Smart-era Bulldogs starts with the Defense. They were historically good in 2021, and excellent in 2022, even after replacing five First-Round Draft Picks. They’ll be replacing some impressive players again.
But Georgia is a place where elite talent gets replaced by elite talent. Even with the departures, they have plenty of options. At the conclusion of Spring practice, they had THIRTY-ONE defenders who were Four or Five-Star recruits. An absurd number.
Among those blue-chippers, returning starters include Linebackers Jamon Dumas-Johnson and Smael Mondon (the team’s two leading tacklers in 2022), DTs Mykel Williams and Warren Brinson, and Cornerback Kamari Lassiter. Georgia rotates pretty liberally on defense, particularly up front, so they bring back plenty of experience. They were Top-10 nationally in Points per Game, Yards per Play, and Yards per Game allowed. Many of the players who contributed to that stout defense will be suiting up in 2023. They’ll be really good defensively. Again.
What About the Offense?
On the Offensive side, the cupboard is far from bare. Brock Bowers is the best Tight End in the country by a wide margin. He’ll be a Top-10 draft pick and has a decent shot to be the second pass-catcher of any sort selected. Kendall Milton, Daijun Edwards, and Branson Robinson form a three-headed monster at Running Back. The O-Line returns four starters and plenty of depth. Ladd McConkey and Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint return at receiver, both are capable of lining up at multiple spots. Transfer addition Dominic Lovett led Missouri in receiving yards last season and is expected to earn a significant role.
The only real question offensively is at Quarterback. Stetson Bennett finally graduated exhausted his eligibility and is a Los Angeles Ram. As with the rest of the roster, there are talented options. Carson Beck was the primary backup the last two years and is widely expected to be the starter when the season opens. But former Five-Star recruits Brock Vandagriff and Gunner Stockton will spend all of fall camp trying to unseat Beck.
Anything Else for Georgia to Feel Good About? Coaching Staff? Schedule?
Short answer: Yes
Coordinator changes are sometimes scary, but when Todd Monken left for the NFL, Georgia elevated Offensive Analyst Mike Bobo. Bobo, a former Georgia Quarterback himself, has been the OC at Georgia before. In fact, his 2014 offense is the highest-scoring unit in Georgia’s history (41.3 ppg). His 2012 unit was explosive too, finishing second nationally in both 40+ yard plays (28) and 50+ yard plays (15). The scheme won’t change much, and any wrinkles Bobo does add are more likely to help than hurt.
Georgia has an 11.5 Win Total from Vegas, and one look at the schedule tells you why. Frankly, it’s not intimidating. If I were a season ticket holder, I’d actually be kind of disgusted; that home slate is hot garbage. They’ll be a double-digit favorite in at least 10 games. The November 18th trip to Tennessee and maybe the November 11th home game against Ole Miss are the only exceptions.
This isn’t all Georgia’s fault. The SEC forced them to cancel a game against Oklahoma, which was replaced by Ball State. Georgia isn’t responsible for how rebuilds at Florida, Georgia Tech, and Auburn are going, or that Vanderbilt is Vanderbilt. Alternatively, nobody made them schedule UAB or UT-Martin, either. However they arrived at this point, the fact remains that it’s underwhelming. Underwhelming enough that it could actually come back to bite them (hold that thought).
The Case Against Georgia
In terms of things within the Georgia program itself stopping them, it’s a short list. Injuries to key players, obviously, could contribute to them dropping a game. There have been some disciplinary issues with players, most commonly street racing, and it’s not impossible that someone has to miss some time. I’m not claiming there’s some sort of cultural issue at Georgia like many people have. Any organization populated with dozens of 18-21 year-olds away from home for the first time is going to have some behavior issues.
There also remains a possibility that some complacency creeps in. They came out flat and lackadaisical at Missouri last year and trailed until the final four minutes, for instance. And Smart is going to have a really tough time convincing his players that they have an army of doubters to prove wrong. He somehow made them believe it (or at least act like they believed it) last year despite a number three preseason ranking. But they’re the clear number one going into this season and there aren’t many pundits who view them as anything but a front-runner.
On balance, there don’t appear to be any giant internal obstacles standing in the Bulldogs’ way.
The Case for The Field
First, we need to narrow The Field down from 131 teams to a manageable number. The overwhelming majority won’t factor into this. But who does?
The teams with the next-shortest odds are Alabama and Ohio State (+600). Michigan is at +1000, USC and LSU check in at +1600, and the resurgent Florida State Seminoles are at +1800. Nobody else is better than 20-1.
**Odds listed are from FanDuel. Other books may have slightly different figures but the order is basically the same**
So we cut the list from 131 to six. Good job, team. I’m going to add a seventh here in a few minutes, but first things first.
The Big Ten teams
Ohio State and Michigan both look like very, very good teams.
Ohio State returns the best WR room in College Football with no close second and a stable of talented and productive Running Backs. They have returning talent at every level of the defense and a coach who’s won 90 percent of his games. There’s a lot to like about this team, who gave Georgia all they wanted in the semifinal last year.
Michigan is coming off back-to-back Big Ten titles and CFP appearances. Both ended in semifinal losses, including one to Georgia in 2021. However, they bring back the majority of a roster that went 13-1 last season. Talent and experience are everywhere.
One of these teams may be eliminated by virtue of the fact that they’re in the same division. But each looks capable of at least giving Georgia a game.
Florida State
Mike Norvell enters 2023 with his best roster to date in Tallahassee. The Seminoles return almost everybody of consequence from a 10-3 team and added some pieces to boot. They addressed one area of need (playmaking ability at Tight End) via the Transfer Portal, where Norvell has done some serious work over the last few years. They enter the season with a Win Total of 9.5 from Vegas and should be favored in at least 10 games. A Week 1 matchup with LSU in Orlando will give us a great look at what kind of chance both of those teams have to unseat the Bulldogs.
USC
The Trojans put up 41.4 points a game in 2022, and look like they’ll be just as prolific again. Caleb Williams won the Heisman and will almost certainly be the first pick in the 2024 Draft. Receivers Mario Williams and Brenden Rice return, as does RB Austin Jones. They also added Dorian Singer, who led Arizona in receiving yards last year. They’re going to score a ton, even if they don’t play great defense.
SEC Foes
Let’s start with Alabama, given the shorter odds they’re getting compared to LSU. The Crimson Tide might have the best chance to knock off Georgia, either in the SEC title game or the CFP. They’ll trot out one of the nation’s most talented rosters. Defensive standouts like Dallas Turner and Kool-Aid McKinstry return and they’ll likely have more balance offensively under new OC Tommy Rees. And Nick Saban has more than earned the benefit of the doubt when it comes to having a chance to win any given game.
LSU won the division in 2022 and finished 10-4 in Brian Kelly’s first year at the helm. They return plenty of talent as well, in addition to bringing in a Top-Five Transfer class. Will that off-week before the Alabama game give them an edge? That’s the only conference game where they won’t be favored.
So Who’s the Mystery Team?
It’s Tennessee. They’re +3000 to win the National Championship, but that’s not why I’m listing them. One way to prevent a Three-Peat is if Georgia doesn’t make the CFP to begin with. That’s where the Vols come in. They’ll be home underdogs against Georgia, but if they can pull off an upset there, they would own the tiebreaker for the East. So even if they lose to Alabama on October 14th, they can still get to Atlanta.
Does an 11-1 Bulldogs squad that misses the SEC Championship game get left out of the playoff? Depends on what happens elsewhere but it’s not inconceivable. They wouldn’t get in over an undefeated team, obviously. They wouldn’t get in over a one-loss Power 5 Champion. Would they get in over a team who loses their Conference Championship Game after an undefeated regular season, like TCU did? Or a Big Ten team that finishes 11-1, only losing to an unbeaten conference champion? With Georgia’s schedule, I’m not sure. If they lose to Tennessee, what’s their signature victory? Ole Miss at home? I’m not convinced that gets it done.
The Case Against The Field
For as good as all these teams are, they all enter 2023 with questions as well. Some are larger than others, but each has a potential Achilles’ Heel.
Ohio State
For the Buckeyes, it’s the Offensive Line. Replacing both Tackles and the Center, particularly in front of a new Quarterback, has the potential to give Ryan Day headaches. Even with all the talent at the skill positions, you can only do so much if you can’t block for them. They’ve lost convincingly to Michigan the last two seasons, mostly due to getting worked over at the lines of scrimmage. If they aren’t better up front, it’ll happen again and they might not even get a shot at Georgia.
LSU
LSU has to close a 30-point gap from last year’s SEC Championship Game. They look like they’ve closed it at least somewhat, in terms of roster talent. But they’re replacing almost the entire secondary. A loss to Florida State in the opener would remove any margin for error before they even start an SEC West schedule. They have their hands full.
Michigan
Michigan embraces a tough, physical identity but got manhandled up front by Georgia in the Semifinal two seasons ago. I’m not sure how good they really are at the receiver position, and they have two really tough conference opponents that could knock them out of the race before it really even starts.
Florida State
Florida State looks like the best team in the ACC but I still don’t think they have the across-the-board talent to match up with the Bulldogs. Much like LSU, an early loss removes any wiggle room; they’d have to run the table to even get a crack at Georgia in a Playoff game. In that case, Clemson and Florida would loom large.
USC
When I said “don’t play great defense” earlier I was being kind. They were horrid. Tackling, specifically, was atrocious. If you want to understand how a team can finish with 29 takeaways (fifth nationally) and still give up almost 30 points a game, just turn on the Tulane game. They’ll be very good but Georgia would be a nightmare up front for them, if it comes to that. But if they don’t improve on defense, we’ll never find out.
Tennessee
Tennessee has to replace Hendon Hooker. Joe Milton was named the starter to open 2021 but got injured and never regained his job, and will be under center in 2023. He’s a freak athlete with a huge arm but has been up and down in his limited action for the last two years. They’re also replacing their two best receivers and two Offensive Linemen. They’ve been pretty much handled by Georgia the last two years, losing by multiple scores. So they have a gap to close as well.
Alabama
Alabama may represent The Field’s best chance to knock Georgia off head-to-head, mostly because they could get two bites at the apple. Vegas obviously thinks so. I’m not so sure.
Replacing Bryce Young is hard enough if you know who the next guy is going to be. But they appear to have no idea. After Jalen Milroe and Ty Simpson both failed to assert themselves in the race, Alabama brought in a third candidate, Notre Dame transfer Tyler Buchner, to further muddy up the waters. If I’m an Alabama fan, I’m concerned about what they have at the sport’s most important position.
Aside from that, they have to replace the production of Jahmyr Gibbs at Running Back, and defenders like Will Anderson Jr, Brian Branch, and Henry To’oto’o. That’s no small task, and a schedule that includes Texas, Tennessee, and LSU isn’t either.
So Will Georgia Win It All Again, or Not?
As long as they’re able to keep all of their key players on the field and avoid believing too much of their own press, yes, I believe so.
They should make it through the regular season 12-0. Georgia matches up well with any potential SEC Championship Game opponent. They hold a distinct talent advantage over Florida State. Ohio State has a new QB and questions up front, not a great combo. Michigan is probably the non-SEC team having the best chance to beat Georgia head-to-head in a Playoff game. Even then, I don’t like the matchup for the Wolverines, especially with how their last meeting went. That Tennessee scenario might be The Field’s best chance.
Georgia has freak athletes all over the field. Big, fast, strong, agile, and athletic, and they hit anything that moves. They’re well-coached and play with a competitive intensity that few teams can match. The Bulldogs are 29-1 the last two seasons for a reason, and they aren’t going away any time soon.
So yeah, just like I did with Tiger at the 2002 Bay Hill Invitational, I’ll be placing my money on a Three-Peat with the Georgia Bulldogs in 2023.
Eric Mulhair is the Co-Host of The South Endzone Podcast and a contributing writer for Belly Up Sports covering College Football. You can follow him on Twitter for the most up-to-date info on Podcast/Article releases, or even just to argue about College Football.
