2023 will be the third year in a row that the NCAA Player of the Year is not drafted in the first round of the NBA Draft. Last year’s winner Zach Edey decided to forego the draft and stay with the Purdue Boilermakers for his senior season. Edey was projected to be taken in the second round if he kept his name in there. Zach will put in another year at the college level in hopes of juicing up his ranking. The winner from the prior season had a similar story.
Oscar Tshiebwe
Kentucky Wildcat star, Oscar Tshiebwe, won the College POY award in 2022. After declaring for the draft, Tshiebwe pulled his name out of the draft and stayed with the Wildcats for another season. He was not predicted to go until the second round and decided another year in Kentucky may help his ranking. As of now, Tshiebwe is projected to be drafted in the mid-second round of this year’s NBA Draft, barely making a dent year over year.
Luka Garza
Luka Garza won the 2021 NCAA POY and got drafted in the second round at number 52, by the Detroit Pistons. He played for one year in Detroit and became a free agent. Garza signed with the Minnesota Timberwolves in 2022. He has played most of his two seasons in the G-League. He is averaging 6.1 points over the 60 NBA games he has played. This is a far cry from the 24 points Garza averaged in his last two years with the Iowa Hawkeyes.
Since 2010, we have had a bunch of NCAA POY winners get picked in the top 11. Evan Turner, Jimmer Fredette, Anthony Davis, Trey Burke, Doug McDermott, Frank Kaminsky, Buddy Hield, Zion Williamson, and Obi Toppin, were worthy enough of going early in the first round. Jalen Brunson (33) and Frank Mason III (34) just missed a first-round selection.
A Different Era
What has changed in the last three years to make these great players not even get a first-round thought? 2023 POY runner-up Trayce Jackson-Davis is projected to be drafted late first round. The other POY finalists, Drew Timme from the Gonzaga Bulldogs and Jalen Wilson from the Kansas Jayhawks are projected second-round draftees, with Wilson having an outside shot at very late first round.
Age Factor
For 11 straight years, all but two winners were taken in the first round, with those two missing by three picks or less. We now have two out of the past three winners electing to stay in college to up their NBA ranking. It did not work for Tshiebwe. Will another year at Purdue work for Edey?
The only logical explanation for why these stars are not getting drafted in the first round is age. Most NBA teams would rather take the risk on the raw talent of younger players. When it comes to players like Edey, Tshiebwe, and Garza, they are already past that age of being able to make mistakes. Trayce Jackson-Davis was the obvious first option for Indiana this year, but his teammate Jalen Hood-Schifino is projected to be a lottery pick. NBA scouts see that raw ability in Hood-Schifino to create plays and shots at the NBA level. Unfortunately for Jackson-Davis, he is 23 years old with fewer years to improve his game. These three examples of POY in college going in the second round prove that NBA teams would rather take a flyer on the potential instead of a validated dominant college player.
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