In 1991 Pearl Jam released their debut album Ten, a wall-to-wall banger and my favorite album ever. In my humble opinion, it’s nearly perfect. A massive commercial success as well, it sold 13 million copies. Their second album Vs. sold nearly a million copies in its first week, debuting at number one on the Billboard chart and outselling the rest of the Top Ten combined. Three years after forming, they were the biggest rock band in the world. Vs. isn’t quite as good as Ten, but is still an excellent record. An elite follow-up to a great debut. This brings me to three coaches out West: Dan Lanning, Kalen DeBoer, and Lincoln Riley. All had great debut seasons, and all enter Year Two hoping for follow-ups as successful as Eddie Vedder and Co.
They all arrived to different amounts of fanfare, expectations, and pedigrees. All three put up excellent debut seasons that have fans anxiously awaiting what Year Two has in store. Riley’s USC Trojans went 11-1 and were in line for a College Football Playoff berth until a loss to Utah in the PAC-12 title game. Lanning led Oregon to a 9-3 regular season and a Holiday Bowl win, finishing 15th in the final AP Poll. DeBoer and his Washington Huskies scored nearly 40 points a game on the way to an 11-2 record and Top-10 finish. There’s not a ton of room for upward mobility when all won double-digit games in Year One. But they all undoubtedly have big-time goals for Year Two. Let’s take a look at how likely they are to reach them.
Dan Lanning, Oregon
Lanning has had an extremely quick career progression. He went from Graduate Assistant at Alabama to Head Coach at Oregon in seven years. In between, he coached linebackers at Memphis and Georgia for three years and was Georgia’s Defensive Coordinator for three more. Shortly before Georgia began their run through the 2021 College Football Playoff, he was hired to replace Mario Cristobal, who had left the Ducks for his hometown Miami Hurricanes.
Oregon entered Lanning’s first year with a pretty talented roster thanks to Cristobal’s recruiting efforts. Vegas pegged them at 8.5 wins, a respectable number for a new, first-time Head Coach. They got absolutely abused by Georgia in the opener, 49-3, then ran off eight straight wins (seven by double digits). Narrow losses to Washington and at rival Oregon State knocked them out of the PAC-12 title game.
Many expected Oregon to improve defensively from 2021 to 2022. That didn’t really happen; they allowed 27.4 ppg compared to 27.0 in 2021. There’s an argument to be made that they played against better offenses in 2022, but on balance, they were largely the same. Where they did make a jump, though, was offensively. Going from 31.4 ppg to 38.8 (10th nationally) was the big driver behind Oregon’s success. Bo Nix was fantastic, throwing for 3,593 yards and 27 TDs. He added 510 yards and 14 TDs rushing, to go along with Bucky Irving‘s 1,000-yard season and Noah Whittington‘s 948 scrimmage yards. The Ducks averaged a robust 6.9 yards per play and 26 First Downs per game.
What to Expect from Lanning in Year Two
Oregon, predictably, enters 2023 with high expectations. Getting 9.5 wins from most sportsbooks, they have the second-shortest odds to win the PAC-12 (+300). They reeled in the nation’s ninth-ranked recruiting class in 2023, as well as the ninth-ranked Transfer class.
Nix is back, which is obviously a great place to start provided he can stay healthy. So are Irving and 2022 leading receiver Troy Franklin. WR Kris Hudson is also back, and they added Troy’s Tez Johnson via the Portal to add to the collection of pass-catchers. So new OC Will Stein will have plenty of playmakers at his disposal.
The defense looks to be anchored by returning Linebackers Mase Funa and Jeffrey Bassa. They brought in a number of transfers to shore up the Secondary as well.
Schedule-wise, they get a warmup game against Portland State before a trip to Texas Tech in Week 2. That’s followed by three more layups (Hawaii, Colorado, and Stanford) before their bye. The second half isn’t quite as forgiving, with trips to Washington and Utah, and home games against USC and rival Oregon State. None of those are back-to-back, they’re all spaced out by games Oregon should win (Washington State, Cal, Arizona State).
The Biggest Challenge Facing Lanning and Oregon?
That’s easy, it’s replacing four starters on the Offensive Line. I would go so far as to say that what happens up front will make or break Oregon’s hope of playing for the Conference Championship. Improvement from the defense is needed as well, but it’s a distant second. I think Lanning has a real chance to keep building at Oregon and I like his prospects there long-term. But for 2023, until I see that their O-Line is nearly as good as last year, I’m not willing to go past nine wins for them. I do like the Over on 8.5 wins, but 10 is likely out of reach.
Kalen DeBoer, Washington
DeBoer wasn’t necessarily a household name when he was hired. But he brought an impressive coaching resume, albeit at lower levels. He led an absolute juggernaut at Sioux Falls (SD) University, where he went 67-3 in five seasons (not a typo) and won three NAIA National Championships. He parlayed that into OC jobs at Southern Illinois, Eastern Michigan, and Fresno State. Then a year running the offense at Indiana, where they finished second in the Big Ten in total offense, before landing his first FBS head job at Fresno State in 2020. After a 3-3 initial campaign they came alive in 2021 with a 9-3 record.
His first order of business at Washington was to fix an offense that was 108th in scoring in 2021 (21.5 ppg). And oh brother, did he ever. Washington averaged 39.7 ppg (seventh in FBS) on the way to a 10-2 regular season record. He brought in Indiana transfer QB Michael Penix Jr. and Virginia RB Wayne Taulapapa to pair up with receivers Rome Odunze, Jalen McMillan, and Ja’lynn Polk. The end result was an explosive downfield passing attack and Penix throwing for an absurd 4,641 yards and 31 TD. Odunze and McMillan both eclipsed 1,000 yards and 7 TD. Polk caught 41 balls for 694 yards and another 6 scores, and Taulapapa averaged 6.3 yards per carry on the way to 887 rushing yards and 11 TD to round out the fireworks.
The defense took a small step back from “Good” (22.7 ppg allowed, 37th nationally) to “Okay” (25.8, 58th). But if you’re scoring almost twice as many points, you can live with that.
What to Expect From DeBoer in Year Two
Year Two should be more of the same. At least on offense. Penix is back, Odunze is back, Polk and McMillan are back. Cam Davis, who ran for 552 yards and 13 TD in 2022, is also back and will get the lion’s share of the carries. So there’s certainly reason to think they’ll approach 40 points a game again. The defense has a chance to improve, if ever so slightly. Edge rushers Bralen Trice and Zion Tupuola-Fetui will be trying to play themselves into the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft, and both are capable of doing so. They added some pieces in the portal, with Cornerback Jabbar Muhammad being the most notable.
Of Washington’s first five opponents, only Boise St has a Win Total from Vegas above six games. After their bye week, they should be 5-0 when Oregon comes to town. Then they get a rebuilding Arizona State and go to Stanford, two more games they’ll be heavily favored. A trip to USC before they play Utah at home and at Oregon State represents the hardest stretch of their schedule. They close the season out at home for the Apple Cup.
The Biggest Challenge Facing DeBoer and Washington?
It’s two-fold and directly related. Priority One is keeping Penix upright and healthy. Thus, replacing three starters on the Offensive Line becomes of the utmost importance. The good news is that the most likely candidates to fill those spots are all fifth-year guys. That at least gives some reason for optimism that they won’t have severe issues up front. You’d like to see the defense improve in Year Two, but it’s not vital. Just not regressing further is good enough, to be honest. But their only shot to go Over 9.5 is for Penix to start and finish 12 games. Given his skill set and how it fits with their offensive scheme, he might be the most irreplaceable player in the country.
Lincoln Riley, USC
You probably don’t need me to tell you about Riley’s history; his background and his hiring are both much more high-profile than the other two. We’ll just hit the high points quickly. Injured-Quarterback-turned-Student Assistant at Texas Tech under Mike Leach. A five-year stint as OC at East Carolina before Bob Stoops hired him for the same position at Oklahoma in 2015. After lighting up scoreboards for two seasons and winning a Broyles Award, he took over when Stoops retired. In five seasons as the head man in Norman, Riley went 55-10, won the Big 12 four times, and made the CFP three times. Oh, and a couple of Heisman Trophy winners. Now we’re all caught up.
Riley was hired by USC less than 24 hours after the regular-season finale in 2021. Working the Transfer Portal aggressively, he rebuilt the roster on the fly. Not as dramatic as what Deion Sanders is currently doing at Colorado, but it was significant. Their new arrivals were highlighted by QB Caleb Williams and WR Jordan Addison. The results (at least offensively) were tremendous. They were third in the country in scoring (41.4 ppg), and Williams won the Heisman with a 4,537-yard, 42 TD season (with another 10 TD on the ground). Four receivers exceeded 600 yards, and Travis Dye ran for 884 yards and 9 TD in only 10 games.
Defensively? Different story. Despite racking up an impressive 29 turnovers (fifth-most in the country) they still managed to allow 29.2 ppg (94th). So it was quite the feast-or-famine situation. When they couldn’t get takeaways and had to make stops, they struggled. They couldn’t get stops against Utah (twice) or Tulane, and there are your three losses right there.
What to Expect From Riley in Year Two
Much like DeBoer and Washington, Year Two in Los Angeles is going to look a lot like 2021 did. Points, points, and more points. Williams returns to try and join Archie Griffin as the only player to win the Heisman twice. Addison is gone, but Mario Williams and Brenden Rice are back, as is RB Austin Jones. They’ll be joined by transfers Marshawn Lloyd (RB, South Carolina) and Dorian Singer (WR, Arizona). They brought in three more transfers to fill holes in the Offensive Line.
The schedule is a tale of two halves. They should start out 6-0 and put up around 270 points doing so. Then it gets real. They go to Notre Dame, play Utah at home, get a layup at Cal, and then play Washington at home. They close out the season with a trip to Oregon and the rivalry game against UCLA. So their four toughest games come in a five-week stretch in the back half of the season. It’s not super advantageous.
The Biggest Challenge Facing Riley and USC?
I’m sorry, did you skip over the part about their defense being putrid last year? Because that’s the biggest challenge facing USC by a MILE. They don’t have to improve a ton in order to win the conference and challenge for a CFP berth. But they have to improve some or Year Two is going to end with the Trojans on the outside looking in again. They can’t score 42+ and still lose like they did twice in 2021. Williams is good enough to cover up a lot of other deficiencies, but have to help him out some. They brought in five new front-seven defenders that will likely start and should help the defense improve. But if their tackling and run-fit problems persist, they’ll lose a game they shouldn’t.
That schedule has seven basically-guaranteed wins, so they have to find three more between Washington, Oregon, Utah, Notre Dame, and UCLA. I think they’ll do it and go Over 9.5 but I’ll need to see something from them defensively before I go past 10 wins on them and start talking Playoffs.
So Which One Will Have a Follow-up That Surpasses Pearl Jam?
Ooh, tough one. All of them certainly have the pieces to. They all have question marks, too. If you could guarantee me that Penix doesn’t miss any time with injury, I’d lean toward Washington. But that’s no sure thing. USC feels like the safest bet; with Williams and that offense, the defense doesn’t need to improve that much. Oregon will need a lot of things to go right for Lanning to have the best Year Two, mainly that O-Line. It might come down to that Washington-USC game in early November, in which case I’ll give a slight nod to Riley and the Trojans. It would be fun to pick the guy coaching in Seattle in this case, but I think USC pulls that one out. If all three have good seasons again like I think they will, you can check back here next June and we can compare their Year Three prospects to Vitalogy. Deal?
Eric Mulhair is the Co-Host of The South Endzone Podcast and a contributing writer for Belly Up Sports covering College Football. You can follow him on Twitter for the most up-to-date info on Podcast/Article releases, or even just to argue about College Football.
