Generally regarded as the best top-to-bottom division in college football, the SEC West should be a strong group of teams again. It looks to be a battle at the top between Alabama and LSU. Can anyone come out of the proverbial woodwork and challenge for a trip to Atlanta?
It’s an odd bunching of teams again this year. Five of seven teams getting either 6.5 or 7.5 wins from Vegas. Nobody is expected to be bad, but only a few teams (take a guess) are projected to have New Year’s Six Bowl-type seasons. It’s typical for the SEC West, and it makes Win Totals a challenge. Let’s try anyway.
**Win Totals listed are from FanDuel Sportsbook. As always, shop around; you may be able to find different odds at other books**
LSU Tigers (9.5)
We’ll start with the defending West champs, who surprised a lot of people in Brian Kelly‘s first year. If you want to be considered a force in the SEC, winning the West and bringing back your starting quarterback, top four rushers, two of your top three receivers, and four starters on the offensive line is a great start.
Jayden Daniels is a preseason Heisman candidate, and Malik Nabers is arguably the best receiver in the SEC. Noah Cain and Josh Williams combined for almost 1,000 yards and 11 TD last year, and they added Logan Diggs from Notre Dame just for kicks. I think we can expect a jump up from their 34.5 ppg average from last year.
Defensively, there’s a lot to like as well. Harold Perkins is in the discussion for the best defensive player in the country. Mekhi Wingo is a potential All-American and Maason Smith is back from injury. They’ll be very good up front, good in the middle, and brought in a half-dozen transfers to bolster the secondary.
They open with another top-10 opponent in Florida State but will be favored in their next seven games. A trip to Tuscaloosa comes after their bye week, and then another three games in which they should be heavy favorites. A road trip to Ole Miss could be a tough one, but I think LSU is the more talented team in that matchup. I’ll take them to go Over 9.5 and get to ten wins.
Arkansas Razorbacks (6.5)
Embed from Getty ImagesThis was the hardest choice for me. On one hand, I really like their offensive pieces and I think Sam Pittman is a good coach. On the other hand, the defense was a mess last year and the schedule is no cakewalk (as usual).
Raheim Sanders is my second-favorite running back in college football (I’m admittedly biased in this particular instance, long story). I love a 6’2″ 225lb running back being nicknamed “Rocket”. KJ Jefferson returns at quarterback and is a tough problem for defensive coordinators to solve with his dual-threat ability. After that, it’s a lot of new faces; only two other starters return. Their top four receivers have departed in addition to three starters on the O-Line. A slight step back offensively might be in the cards.
A year after allowing 30.6 ppg, Pittman is simply praying that he can keep guys on the field. The secondary was decimated by injury, leading to nearly 300 passing yards allowed per game. They should be okay up front, provided they can rush the passer as well as last year. The linebackers look a little thin but they did add secondary depth via the portal.
The schedule, as I mentioned, doesn’t do them a ton of favors. They start with three winnable games. Then they go to LSU, play Texas A&M in a neutral-site game at the Cotton Bowl, go to Ole Miss, and finally take a trip to Alabama. They only have one road game on the back end, at Florida, so they can make up some ground there. Provided they can get a split between the Florida and Missouri games, I think they can get to seven wins. So give me the Over.
Auburn Tigers (6.5)
Death, Taxes, and Auburn playing one of the country’s toughest schedules. Hugh Freeze has worked hard on making over the roster and they look improved. That’s good; they’re gonna need it in this year’s SEC West.
Michigan State quarterback Peyton Thorne transferred in after spring practice, and he’ll be trying to supplant Robby Ashford. Freeze hasn’t committed to one or the other yet but Thorne would be my guess. Tank Bigsby is gone, but Jarquez Hunter (675 yds, 7 TD) returns and will get the majority of the carries. They also return their top three receivers from last year (though none of them eclipsed 500 yards). The line is a question mark, with only one starter returning and the rest being transfers.
If they don’t improve on defense (29.5 ppg, 173 rush yds/gm allowed), none of what I just typed will matter all that much. They bring back a lot of players (10 of the top 13 tacklers), which is fine, but those guys have to play better. They improved depth up front and bring back two starting linebackers. The strength, though, looks to be the secondary, where they return everybody and should be pretty good.
They get three warm-up games and then the fun begins. A trip to Texas A&M, Georgia at home, and a trip to LSU before they play the Mississippi schools back to back. Three winnable games, and then the Iron Bowl, which is at home this year. I’ll take the Over here as well, but I don’t feel supremely confident about it.
Mississippi State Bulldogs (6.5)
Embed from Getty ImagesThe circumstances surrounding the team made this a difficult choice. I’d love to see them go 9-3 and have a good year in light of Mike Leach‘s passing. That’s what my heart says. My head says this is a team with some big question marks that looks like it might have a long season.
Zach Arnett, the Bulldogs’ defensive coordinator in 2022, was elevated to head coach after Leach’s death. The biggest change will obviously be, you know, the entire offensive philosophy. No more of Leach’s famed Air Raid scheme; instead they’ll feature a more downhill-running-between-the-tackles look. Will Rogers is one of the best quarterbacks in the conference but he’s probably not going to come close to last year’s numbers (3,974 yds, 35 TD). Four of the top six receivers return, as do four O-Line starters. They’ve added depth at running back, and will split carries between Jo’Quavious Marks, Keyvone Lee, and Jeffrey Pittman.
They only bring back four starters on the defense, which had improved for a third straight year (23.1 ppg allowed). Two starting linebackers return, Jett Johnson and Nathaniel Watson, but only one up front and one in the secondary. They, like everyone else, worked the transfer portal hard, but still don’t look great up front depth-wise and none of the transfers in the secondary were starters at their previous schools. So there are some question marks.
The schedule is pretty similar to Arkansas, in terms of difficulty. They get LSU and Alabama at home but you can play in a Wal-Mart parking lot; those teams are still better than you. Four conference road games (A&M, South Carolina, Arkansas, and Auburn) look tricky. The Egg Bowl is at home, and the non-conference schedule looks okay. I need to see how the new offense goes and all the new faces on defense play together before I believe too much, though. There are enough question marks to keep me from getting behind a seventh win. I’ll take the Under.
Alabama Crimson Tide (10.5)
What do you see when you look at Alabama the last two seasons? A team that lost the title game, then missed the playoff, and may be trending down? Or a team that is 21-3 in regular-season play with all three losses coming on the road against ranked conference opponents on the last play of the game (seven points total)? If you want to win the West you still have to beat Alabama, as far as I’m concerned.
Having said that, there’s an element of uncertainty with this team that I’m not sure I like. Specifically, the quarterback battle. Not naming a starter after a spring competition between Jalen Milroe and Ty Simpson is one thing, bringing in a third quarterback to continue the competition is another. They bring back their top two receivers and Jase McClellan will get most of the carries. Only two starters are back on the O-Line but the replacements are talented.
The defense brings back five starters, led by Dallas Turner and Kool-Aid McKinstry. Deontae Lawson and Chris Braswell will need to step up to bigger roles after Bama lost seven of their top eight tacklers.
The Tide don’t have a cakewalk schedule-wise, either. Plenty of tough games here. They do get LSU, Tennessee, Ole Miss, and Texas at home. A&M and Auburn are their toughest road opponents. Can they get through that with only one loss? With all the star power they’re replacing? It’s a tough sell. But I’m buying anyway. Last time they looked like they were rebuilding with a bunch of question marks, they took a lead into the fourth quarter of the CFP Championship game. Give me the Over, and Nick Saban pieces together an 11-1 team and heading to the SEC title game.
Ole Miss Rebels (7.5)
Embed from Getty ImagesLane Kiffin and the Rebels seem like they’re stuck in this weird gray area. An in-between purgatory where they’ll never be bad, but probably not get over the hump and win the SEC West either.
I’m not sure who the quarterback will be, with Spencer Sanders transferring in and Jaxson Dart returning. Whoever it is will have the luxury of handing off to arguably the nation’s top running back, Quinshon Judkins. Four starters return up front, so the formula to repeat last year’s 257 yds/gm rushing attack is there. They lost their top two receivers but added depth there via the portal.
The defense was just okay in ’22 and should be better, if only a little bit, this year. They bring back two starters up front (new coordinator Pete Goulding has them switching to a 3-4 look), with added depth. They brought in experienced transfers at linebacker and in the secondary. Overall, this is an improved unit.
The schedule isn’t a picnic, but such is life in the SEC I guess. Road trips to Alabama and Georgia are the obvious obstacles. Tulane in Week 2 is a sneaky-good game maybe? Same thing with the game at Auburn. The home slate includes LSU, A&M, and Arkansas. Not a forgiving path. I’m going to take the Under here.
Texas A&M Aggies (7.5)
The Aggies scored 24 points or fewer in six of their seven losses last year and finished with a 22.8 ppg average. While the defense was good, the offense was terrible, scoring the fewest points in the SEC. So Jimbo Fisher hired a new offensive coordinator, and just so we don’t get sidetracked here, I’ll simply say it’s a situation worth watching and move on.
Conner Weigman started four games last year and will be under center in 2023. Five of the top six receivers are back. They return the entire offensive line and while they lost Devon Achane, are deep at running back. With Bobby Petrino calling plays and Achane the only departed starter, there’s definite potential here.
Defensively, I expect them to be very good. They return a lot of guys from a tough defense in 2022 (21.2 ppg allowed) that was on the field way too much with the offensive woes. Six of the top seven tacklers are back, but you’d like to see them improve the pass rush (19 sacks). The secondary should be really good, and they bring back three starters at linebacker.
They should be 4-1 at worst when Alabama comes to town on October 7th. That’s followed by a trip to Tennessee and then the bye. Three winnable conference games, an FCS opponent in Week 12, and then the big trip to Baton Rouge to close out. If they can win two of Auburn, Ole Miss, and South Carolina, they’ll get to eight wins. And I think they will. 8-4 might not be good enough for the boosters, but it’s good enough for me. If Petrino and Fisher can co-exist and actually maximize all the talent on this roster, we could be looking at a dark horse SEC West pick.
Man, this division is rough. Teams like Ole Miss or Arkansas could probably compete for a conference title almost anywhere else. But it always feels like they have no chance in the SEC West. In any case, it looks like it will be a great race to Atlanta for the SEC title game. Stop back in next week and we’ll look at the SEC East and the likely opponent(s) for whoever comes out of this division. Until then, Swing Your Sword.
Eric Mulhair is the Co-Host of The South Endzone Podcast and a contributing writer for Belly Up Sports covering College Football. You can follow him on Twitter for the most up-to-date info on Podcast/Article releases, or even just to argue about College Football.
