A week ago today, there had been a grand total of zero head coaches fired for on-field performance. Since Sunday morning, four jobs have opened up. And more are likely to follow. But which openings are the most attractive for candidates? Which schools will have a tough time finding a new head coach?
Last week, we looked at whose phone might be ringing this December. It wasn’t an all-inclusive list by any means, just like this isn’t (yet). But as the carousel starts to build up some speed, it’s worth a few minutes to try and get a lay of the land.
Pretend for a minute that you’re an in-demand coach. Maybe you’re a hot-shot coordinator. Or a head coach at a smaller school who has found a lot of success. Maybe you’re a bounce-back candidate. The point is, in this hypothetical, you have an offer from each school that has an opening. Where are you going?
Texas A&M
I get that A&M’s reputation is that they’re a perpetual underachiever that thinks more highly of themselves than they should. “All hat, no cattle”, if you will. And maybe that’s true, to a certain extent.
What’s also true is that it’s a turnkey operation. You’ll want for nothing. Facilities? Check. Recruiting footprint? Double-check. Fanbase? Check. Bottomless resources in terms of NIL/Booster support? Um, yes, big checkmark there. Everything a coach would say they need in order to deliver a championship-caliber team is in College Station.
A&M won’t waste much time looking for the new guy, either. When they fired Jimbo Fisher on Sunday, they opened up a 30-day transfer portal window for their current players. That rolls into the NCAA-allowed transfer portal window. So an extremely talented roster could be up for grabs. Getting a replacement, and quickly, one that players will stick around for, is paramount for them. They’re gonna swing fast, and they’re gonna swing big.
There are maybe six names who are untouchable for A&M. That’s it. Everyone else is in play. Don’t delude yourself into thinking “My coach has it great here, why would he leave to go to Texas A&M?”. Chances are, he would (looking at you, Oregon fans). This is also the type of job that starts a cascade of movement nationally; the new staff has to come from somewhere, and they need to be replaced by their current school. The domino effect is very, very real here.
Michigan State
Embed from Getty ImagesI’d also listen to arguments for Mississippi State here. Whatever your preference, there’s a significant gap between Texas A&M and the next-most desirable head coach job. That much is undeniable.
But I’d go with Michigan State by a nose. Yes, things are messy at the moment. But again, you’ll have plenty of resources to get the job done. This is a program that went 11-2 just a couple of years ago. And given the circumstances, you probably wouldn’t be under a ton of pressure for a year or two. So it’s a chance to build a program how you want it, with plenty of financial backing. The Big Ten is getting pretty top-heavy, with USC, Oregon, Washington, and UCLA joining the conference. But getting into a 12-team playoff field every two or three years is entirely achievable.
Mississippi State
Again, it was a close call. But this is still a desirable job, even if they may not be as resource-rich as the previous two schools. Even if you’re recruiting against the likes of LSU, Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee, and Auburn, not to mention in-state rival Ole Miss, there’s still a bevy of talent in the Southeast. It’s a great fan base, even if they may not be on the same level as some other programs in terms of NIL.
Expectations-wise, it’s pretty reasonable. There’s not the pressure to be a perennial national title contender. Winning eight or nine games a year in the SEC is no easy task, but if you can pull it off, you’ll have a well-paying job for a long, long time. But if you view that conference as the pinnacle of college football coaching gigs, and a LOT of coaches do, it’s a tough job to pass up.
San Diego State
There aren’t a whole lot of places where you can contend for a national championship on a year in, year out basis. And San Diego State obviously is not on that list. But man, oh man, you could do a lot worse than this. Particularly if you’re a first-time head coach.
Despite this year’s 3-7 record, the program is in reasonably good shape. They’ve won double digit games five times since 2015, so there’s a reasonably high ceiling. You’d be in a great recruiting footprint, even if you’re not the premier destination in Southern California. Could a new coach work the portal and upgrade the roster enough to compete in the Mountain West in their first year? Absolutely. Talking talented players into coming to one of the country’s best cities shouldn’t be an impossible task.
Much of the “desirability” of this job would be tied up in its potential as a springboard for an up-and-comer. But setting aside the reasons, and just focusing on how tempting an offer it would be, I think it could be a pretty attractive job.
Boise State
Embed from Getty ImagesAndy Avalos had a tough act to follow. Two acts, actually. And that, in my opinion, is the biggest thing working against this situation. Before Avalos, Bryan Harsin won double digit games five times in seven seasons on the way to a 69-19 record. Before him, Chris Petersen won ten games or more seven times in eight seasons, and boasted a 92-12 record. Hell, as far as that goes, before Petersen, Dan Hawkins went 53-11 in five seasons, winning 11+ games three times. For those of you that aren’t great at math, that’s 214-42 in the last 20 years, an absurd set of numbers. The point is, expectations are HIGH, and there won’t be a ton of patience. If you win ten games in your second season, as Avalos did, and start 5-5 the next year, you’re in trouble.
That’s the Cons. The Pros? A fantastic fanbase. The facilities, administration, and booster support are among the best in the conference. It’s one of the more well-recognized brands among Group of Five schools. But, southwest Idaho is not a particularly great recruiting footprint. The program has thrived on coach after coach who excels in player development. But you’d better develop them well, and do so quickly. Much like San Diego State, it may be viewed as a stepping-stone job for younger coaches. But one with much less margin for error. I’ll be fascinated to see who they end up with, what that coach’s background is, and how they fare.
Northwestern
No disrespect to the good folks in Evanston, but if I’m a coach, this is my least desirable opening. They fired the most successful coach in the school’s history, Pat FItzgerald, in the aftermath of an ugly hazing scandal. Fitzgerald ended with a 110-101 record. That is probably the ceiling for them in that conference.
Any team in the Big Ten will have some things going for it in the resources department. And Northwestern is no exception. Their facilities are sneaky-good, with a $250 million practice facility, and planned stadium renovations in the works. And expectations aren’t particularly high.
But expectations aren’t high for a reason. You can’t expect to ever compete there. You’ll routinely have, at best, the 15th-most-talented roster in an 18-team Big Ten. With the academic admissions requirements, the transfer portal becomes a one-way affair. For every five players you lose, you might be able to bring in one. Would the relative luxury of Big Ten money be enough to spend a chunk of your career banging your head against a wall trying to go 6-6 every year?. No thanks.
Other schools will move on from their head coach
The carnage is far from over, I’m afraid. Sam Pittman at Arkansas and Dave Aranda of Baylor are both on thin ice, unfortunately. If I were forced to make a wager on the next two coaches to be let go, I’d start with them. Chatter around Billy Napier will intensify if Florida misses out on a bowl game, which I expect they will. How much more patience will Syracuse show Dino Babers in the midst of what could be a fourth straight year of a second-half faceplant? It’s entirely possible we have to update this list with another six schools in a couple of weeks.
Featured Photo: Tim Warner/Getty Images
Eric Mulhair is the Co-Host of The South Endzone Podcast and a contributing writer for Belly Up Sports covering College Football. You can follow him on Twitter for the most up-to-date info on Podcast/Article releases, or even just to argue about College Football.
