The NFL is in the home stretch of the 2023-2024 season and we are yet again being reminded about a consistent mistake made by NFL teams. This year’s latest victims include the New York Giants and Las Vegas Raiders. The mistake is when we see teams make the dooming decision to pay average QBs big contracts that push past their value, underperform, and as a result, handicap the team in the coming years.
To start, it should be noted that there are secondary factors that lead to these decisions. The main one is the lack of real QB talent across the NFL, especially over the past few years. There is a large chunk of teams that don’t have a premier talent at QB, while also not having a young QB they are developing or a high draft pick to invest in one. That leads to teams being stuck in the middle. It’s admittedly a difficult spot to be in but the issue is that regardless, you shouldn’t fall into the trap of committing multiple years and big money to players you know will be serviceable at best.
2023 Victim #1: Las Vegas Raiders
Embed from Getty ImagesBefore the 2023 season, we witnessed the Raiders sign Jimmy Garappolo to a three-year, 72.75 million deal. That decision (among many others), led GM Dave Ziegler and HC Josh McDaniels to be fired mid-season. Now the Raiders are going to suffer financially through the 2025 season. This leads to Garappolo being either an extremely overpaid backup or the team stuck with a dead cap for cutting him.
2023 Victim #2: New York Giants
Embed from Getty ImagesWe also saw the Giants make what looks to be an even bigger mistake this offseason. After being hired before the 2022 season, GM Joe Schoen and HC Brian Daboll made a tough decision. They declined the fifth-year option for the team’s QB Daniel Jones. That decision ultimately led to an even more difficult one the following offseason. After Daniel Jones showed improvement under Daboll’s leadership, the team rewarded Jones with a four-year, 160 million-dollar contract. Fast forward a few months and it looks like a complete disaster. Over six games, the Giants went 1-5 while Jones had three total touchdowns, six interceptions, and four fumbles. Now the team heads into the offseason with uncertainty about the direction at the most important position in football.
Year After Year
These decisions are made year after year in the NFL. The Saints and Seahawks also hover over this mistake right now after signing Derek Carr and Geno Smith to multi-year deals. Fortunately, they aren’t looking to be nearly as bad at the moment. Nevertheless, they still could easily fall into this mistake soon enough. In previous years, the Titans, Colts (multiple times), and Panthers have also fallen victim to this decision.
In the end, it rarely works out well. The teams are forced to move on, suffer financial repercussions, and are losing teams. General managers and coaches are fired and the team is left in a hole. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are a good example of this dooming middle ground right now. After losing Tom Brady, they could have easily overpaid in an attempt to stay relevant. Fortunately for them, they didn’t commit big to Baker Mayfield, are still relevant in the NFC South, and are not stuck with him long-term.
If you’re a team that finds themselves in a situation where they need a QB change, you can’t let yourself sit in the middle ground. Either pay the price for a proven top player or accept that you will have a subpar QB while you reset to find one in the draft. Whatever you do, don’t fall into the trap of committing big to QB that you know isn’t worth it.
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