2024 GEICO 500 BellyUp Racing Picks

From Martinsville to Texas, to now Talladega Superspeedway. The NASCAR Cup Series has reached the GEICO 500! That’s right ladies and gentlemen, 500 miles on NASCAR’s biggest, most treacherous course on the docket. You can always count on this race coming down to the final laps, and several cautions that change the dynamic of the whole race.

Because of the nature of this race, it’s damn near impossible to predict. Superspeedways are good for producing first-time winners and repeat winners are hard to find. It’s a random track, so that makes my and Chris’s job all that much harder. Nevertheless, we’ll give it a go. Here are our picks for the GEICO 500 at Talladega!

Chris’s Picks: #12 Ryan Blaney (+1100) and #14 Chase Briscoe (+3000)

Kaleb touched on it a bit below, but in the last six Talladega races, Ryan has the best finishing average (6.7) at Talladega. It doesn’t just end with that stat though. The third-highest driver currently on my Power Rankings has an immaculate track record at Talladega. He’s not finished outside the top fifteen drivers since the October 2020 race when he was caught up in an accident. That takes some skill and a whole lot of luck. A lot like Kaleb with the #9 I think the #12 will be up front before the end of the race on Sunday. Especially if Lady Luck continues to be nice to the current champion at Talladega.

I’m going to roll with another Chase this week as my gamble. If you look at recent weeks Chase has been consistently in and around the top ten. He’s been carrying the SHR banner for the most part honestly. My main reason for rolling with the #14 is this though. In the last six Talladega races, Briscoe has been involved in one accident back in April of 2022. Other than that race he has never finished outside the top fifteen. Luck is going to be something you need a lot of in racing, and especially on a track like Talladega. I think Chase, and Lady Luck have a good bond right now and if your looking for someone to throw some money on then Chase fits that bill.

Kaleb’s Picks: #9 Chase Elliott (+1200) & #38 Todd Gilliland (+9000)

Chase Elliott’s most recent win before last week was at Talladega in 2022. It’s also worth noting that he has a great average finish with 11.5 since 2021. Second only to Ryan Blaney who was picked above. He’s also been fortunate to avoid a DNF in any of those races. You need just as much, if not more, luck than skill at a track like this. Elliott’s been pretty lucky all things considered. The #9 should be up front by the end of this one and I like his chances of the favorites at the top of the board.

As for my gamble pick on Todd Gilliland, I point to the year’s first two races. At Daytona and Atlanta, he had speed. Gilliland led laps in both races and even started second row at Atlanta collecting 17 points. The finishes weren’t great, but the #38 team might have something for these superspeedways. At Talladega, Gilliland has four races under his belt, and in the last three, he’s finished P12, P10, and P7. If you’re one of those folks who throws a couple of bucks on a few drivers to finish within the top five or 10, give Gilliland a shout. He might not disappoint.

Chris’s Fade: #17 Chris Buescher (+2200)

This weeks fade was one of the more difficult ones to choose. Mainly because anything can happen at Talladega. However, in the last two races Chris has been a mid-pack type of guy. That being said though if Chris is running mid-pack at Talladega he’s basically asking for something bad to happen. Not only though has the speed been average recently for the #17. In his seventeen career Talladega Cup Series starts Chris has only three top ten finishes. Could Chris come out and run up front all race, avoid the accidents and bring home a good finish? Well absolutely, this is racing and racing at Talladega of all places. Literatly anything can happen but I’m not putting any money on Chris.

Kaleb’s Fade: #5 Kyle Larson (+1600)

This is one of those situations that everybody should know. Kyle Larson and Superspeedways have never been the best of friends. When it comes to restrictor plate racing, the #5 car just hasn’t quite figured it out. He has one top five at NASCAR’s largest track, and that came at the dawn of the next-gen car. Since then, just one top-15 performance and an accident. Anybody can win at Talladega, sure. Kyle Busch has never had the best reputation at these tracks either and he won last year’s GEICO 500. But we’re betting men over here, this is the one week where Larson doesn’t fit as a great bet.

If you enjoyed this content, or hate it and want to argue with me, follow me on Twitter @KalebEmcee! Also, read up on the rest of the NASCAR content Belly Up Sports has to offer here! Heck, for all your other sports needs, follow the main page. If you love racing of any shape or form, find Chris on Twitter, and let’s talk!