The Champions League will not have a repeat winner for the sixth year in a row. Bernardo Silva made sure of this. Jokes aside, this year’s UCL semi-final has some intriguing storylines and incredible individual matchups across both ties. The quarter-finals produced some incredible moments, games, and surprises. The semi-finals hope to improve on the drama of the quarter-finals.
Borussia Dortmund vs Paris Saint-Germain
The excitement of seeing these two teams playing each other for the first time and seeing their styles go head-to-head has been drowned out. These two teams played each other in the group stage. One game ended in a 1-1 draw, while the other ended in a 2-0 PSG win. In both games, PSG out-possessed BVB and outshot them. That’s why many believe that this tie is essentially over before it starts. I’d disagree….slightly.
BVB
Despite losing goalscoring machine Erling Haaland and future Ballon D’or winner Jude Bellingham in the past two summers, BVB has made it to the semi-finals for the first time since 2013. No one is giving BVB a chance, and there’s a good reason for this. They sit fifth in the Bundesliga, their first two ties were against unfavored sides such as PSV and Atletico Madrid. Neither team was considered a real contender to win it all. However, Atletico Madrid was favored in the last round.
How They Win
Despite many experts not fancying their chances, I do believe they have a distinct advantage in midfield. Marcel Sabitzer has played in big games before with RB Leipzig and Bayern Munich. His five assists in the Champions League this season are tied for second. Emre Can and Julian Brandt have also seen their fair share of big games respectively.
BVB will have moments across both these games where they will have to suffer for long periods without the ball. Those experienced midfielders mentioned earlier will have to impose their will against a relatively inexperienced midfield for PSG.
Lastly, is there a chance PSG doesn’t take them seriously? After vanquishing some demons in their last round against Barcelona, PSG could overlook them. Upsets happen in the Champions League, they’re facing an uphill battle but it could happen.
PSG
Could it finally be their year? Despite being bankrolled by Qatar for over a decade now, PSG has never won a Champions League. They made the final in 2020, losing to Bayern Munich. This is most likely Kylian Mbappe’s final year in Paris. Mbappe is the best player in the world and finally has a team built around him. PSG beat Real Sociodad in the round of 16 and beat Barcelona in the quarter-finals.
How They Win
Of the four teams remaining in the Champions only one team is coached by someone who hasn’t won the Champions League, BVB. PSG manager Luis Enrique won the UCL with Barcelona ten years ago. He’s a top-class manager who has done a great job with this young team and managing the likelihood of Mbappe leaving.
PSG has Kylian Mbappe, the best player in the world, 25, and the top scorer in this year’s UCL. Mbappe is the Tyreek Hill of soccer, he’s a massive threat in open space. Mbappe can change a game in an instant. He’s the top scorer in the Champions League and should add to his tally over two legs.
Prediction PSG 7-3 BVB
Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid
Two non-English teams led by English superstars, what year is it? Bayern Munich boasts Harry Kane, one of the most prolific goalscorers of the last decade. Real Madrid has Jude Bellingham who has excelled in his first season in Madrid. Both teams are more than their two stars, but the focus of this tie will be on those two.
Bayern Munich
Failing to win the Bundesliga for the first time in 11 years has energized them in the Champions League. They went undefeated in group play, and dispatched favorites Arsenal in what some dubbed as an “upset”. However don’t be fooled, Bayern is one of the most talented teams in Europe and can win different games. They also have seven players still in the team who started the final against PSG four years ago.
How They Win
Speed kills and Bayern Munich has three wingers who are absolute blurs. Leroy Sane, Kingsley Coman, and Serge Gnabry are all going to be keys for Bayern. If they can get out on the break, look for them to test the speed of Real Madrid’s fullbacks.
Real Madrid didn’t face this kind of speed against Manchester City in the quarter-finals. Bayern’s best chance to win this game is to sit back in a low defensive block and counter. Unlike Erling Haaland, Harry Kane is an incredible passer. Kane will look to drop into midfield, draw a defender out of position, and then release one of their pacey wingers.
In the midfield, Bayern will look to make it as much of a physical game as possible with Madrid. Absolute unit Leon Goretzka will be key to this along with Konrad Laimer who has finally figured out his role on this side.
Real Madrid
14. Yes, 14 Champions League titles for Real Madrid. An absurd amount, but not surprising considering how many talented players they’ve had. This team is no different. The best player for Brazil (Vinicius Jr), check. The best defender for Germany (Antonio Rudiger), check. Ballon D’or winner (Luka Modric), check. Madrid won the final two years ago with mostly the same team and the same coach. This is football heritage.
How They Win
Similar to Bayern, Real Madrid has an insane amount of pace on the wings with the aforementioned Vini Jr and his Brazilian teammate Rodrygo. Both teams can’t just sit back and let the other team have the ball and wait to counter. I think Madrid will be the team that will counter more often over two legs. Madrid can suffer in defense, as they did against Manchester City last round.
In defense, Real Madrid has the craziest and possibly the most in-form defender in the world right now in Antonio Rudiger. He locked up prolific goalscorer Erling Haaland in the quarter-finals last round. It doesn’t get any easier with Harry Kane. If Rudiger can subdue Kane in any way, it should be curtains for Bayern.
Jude Bellingham shows up in big games. Jude Bellingham cannot legally drink in the United States. Bellingham has scored three goals in two games against Barcelona in La Liga this season. Despite primarily being deployed as a midfielder, he has 21 goals this season. If Bellingham can use his instincts and creativity in the penalty box to get on the end of a passage of play, Bayern are in trouble.
Prediction: Real Madrid 4-3 Bayern Munich
If you enjoyed “Champions League Semi-Final Preview,” please check out Belly Up Sports weekly!
Featured Image: Photo by Kerstin Joensson / AFP
