NASCAR heads back to California to do some racing in wine country. The Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Sonoma Raceway is the first of two road course tracks coming up on the schedule. Last year, Martin Truex Jr in the #19 took a swig of the wine given to the victor at victory lane. He’s still searching for his first win in 2024, as are other drivers in our picks piece this week.
Last week, all of Kaleb’s picks stunk. The fade worked out, but the main picks I sold you on, were not great. Chris wasn’t so hot either. His fade finished P4 at Gateway and his picks, P10 and P14. Here’s to hoping we do you reader a little better this week in the unpredictable sport of NASCAR. In the everso-unpredictable Toyota/Save Mart 350. So without further adieu, let’s jump into our “expert” picks this week!
Chris’s Picks: #9 Chase Elliott (+850) & #6 Brad Keselowski (+10000)
Embed from Getty ImagesI don’t think anyone is questioning the first choice. Chase in his seven career starts at Sonoma has only finished outside the top ten twice, one of those instances being from an engine issue and the other being his very first Sonoma start. He won earlier this season at Texas to shake off the rust, and it’s time for him to go grab another road course win I believe. He won’t win you a ton of money but he should keep your money safe at the very least!
Those odds are a little higher than I may have expected. I’m still going to roll with it though. Brad also won earlier this season at Darlington to shake off a lot more rust than Chase even. His performance at Sonoma has always been really “mid” he’s only finished higher than tenth one time in his career. So, I am rolling with Brad mainly because of his performance as of late. I think he can take the 6 car into the top ten and even further. It’s a bit of a risk but Brad has been a lot better this year and the trend should continue.
Kaleb’s Picks: #1 Ross Chastain (+2200) & #17 Chris Buescher (+1400)
Embed from Getty ImagesRoss Chastain at road courses is quite a sneaky option. In 24 career Cup Series races among NASCAR’s road courses, he’s got a win at COTA, three top-fives, and six other top-ten finishes. At Sonoma alone, Chastain has finished P7 twice and was P10 last year. Collecting a P3 finish at the end of stage two in 2023. At +2200 I think this pick has incredible value and incredible potential to hit victory lane, as his teammate Daniel Suarez did in 2022.
The same praise can be said about the #17 team and Chris Buescher. He hasn’t finished lower than P11 on a road course since the 2022 rendition of the race at COTA. He was runner-up to Suarez in the 2022 race at Sonoma and P4 last year. Collecting stage points in stage one (P7) in 2022, and stage two (P3) in 2023. The odds aren’t as favorable to the buyer as they are in Chastain, but both options provide similar potential in getting the race win. But if you want to play it safe, I believe both of these cars should finish inside the top 10 if all goes well.
Chris’s Fade: #20 Christopher Bell (+750)
Embed from Getty ImagesChristopher Bell is hot right now. So, to fade on him will probably bite me again. Much like my counterpart’s choice here Christopher is a pretty good road racer. Even finished ninth here last season. I’m going to stay away from him though because of his prior experiences. C Bell finished outside the top twenty in ’22 and ’21. More failures than successful trips to Win country have me leaning away this week though being the statistician I like to think of myself.
Kaleb’s Fade: #45 Tyler Reddick (+850)
Embed from Getty ImagesFading Tyler Reddick at face value is a weird look. He’s highly regarded for his ability on road courses. He’s got three wins in 21 races, as well as an average finish of 12th. But, Sonoma seems to be the thorn in his side as it pertains to these tracks. In three races here, he’s collected P19, P33, and P35 with just two stage finishes inside the top 10 in those races. The #45 team is excellent and they always have the potential to get wins. It’s why they’re always within +1000 of a race win with the best of the best. But with his track record at Sonoma, I’ll stay clear of them for this one.
If you enjoyed this content, or hate it and want to argue with me, follow me on Twitter @KalebMcChesney! Also, read up on the rest of the NASCAR content Belly Up Sports has to offer here! Heck, for all your other sports needs, follow the main page. If you love racing of any shape or form, find Chris on Twitter, and let’s talk!
