Watkins Glen 2024 BellyUp Racing Picks

NASCAR is returning to the famous Watkins Glen for Cup Series action this weekend! In the state park, this 2.45-mile-long road course sits and provides some of the most intense road course racing NASCAR has to offer. Last year saw the #24 of William Byron start the round of 16 strong, collecting his first of many wins on his road to the Championship Four.

As usual, Chris and I have come together to provide you with two cars we like this weekend and a car we’ll unnecessarily dump on just for them to collect a T-5 and have a strong day. Here are your BellyUp Racing picks for the 2024 “Go Bowling at the Glen”!

Chris’s Picks: #11 Denny Hamlin (+2200) & #8 Kyle Busch (+1200)

When I was looking over the odds that Kaleb sent me, I was a bit surprised. I’ve gotten so used to seeing Denny up near the top of those listings. This week was different though. Personally, I’m not sure why unless it’s his recent bad luck. Because in his last three Watkins Glen races, he has the 4th best finishing average among active drivers. Honestly, we can go back a little further too though, let’s go back to August of 2016. If we do that Denny has only two finishes outside the top ten, and grabbed at least one stage worth of stage points in five of those seven races. I’ll gladly lay some “pizza money” on Denny this week. 

The Glen hasn’t been super kind to Kyle recently. I mean he grabbed a 14th-place finish last year which isn’t horrible but it could be better. What I do like though about Kyle and Watkins Glen is this little fact. In eighteen career races, Kyle has only finished outside the top fifteen three total times. Kyle knows his way around the Glen. If you need any more help though just look at his performance this year on road courses. He finished ninth at COTA and on the street course. Plus a twelfth place finish at Sonoma. Kyle and his team have picked up the solid performance lately, could he upset the playoffs and win at Watkins Glen? It’s very much possible. 

Kaleb’s Picks: #16 A.J. Allmendinger (+1000) & #20 Christopher Bell (+1100)

I love AJ Allmendinger at road courses. Who doesn’t? Before Shane Van Ginsbergen, you could argue he was the clear-cut best road course ringer in the Cup Series. At Watkins Glen specifically, Dinger has finished P4 and P2 in the last two races. He’s even posted a win here back in 2014 when he drove the #47. Assuming his Kauling equipment doesn’t fall apart, Dinger should be upfront and center for most of, if not all, of the race. Where passing is so difficult and driving through the field may not be an option.

As for Christopher Bell, the odds are excellent for a pretty solid road course racer himself. In his last six road course starts, he’s finished in the top 10 all but once. Last year at Watkins Glen, C-Bell finished P3 collecting P7 and P5 in the first two stages. In 2022, he was P8. Bell is a solid driver all around and I’d be looking at him towards the front alongside Dinger racing for the win.

Chris’s Fade: #24 William Byron (+650)

How could I go against last year’s winner, and one of the drivers with the highest odds to win you may ask. Well, it’s simple. I’m not so much against William as the fact that they’re are way higher pay options available that I like more. William won at COTA earlier this year, then at Martinsville, and hasn’t been back to victory lane since. He also in that time frame has a thirtieth place finish at Sonoma and eighth on the streets of Chicago. His results have been up and down, and very inconsistent. Much like his history as well at Watkins Glen. In five career races, he’s finished outside the top twenty in two of the five trips. William could very well go in and win another. However, with options like Hamlin and Busch available, that could net you more winnings at the end of the race. I’m going to stay away from Willy B. 

Kaleb’s Fade: #34 Michael McDowell (+1200)

I know Michael McDowell is a pretty solid road course racer. Hell, he was the victor of the last Indy Road Course race last year. But Watkins Glen seems to be his Achilles heel. Besides a solid run in 2022 where he collected P6, he was out of the race last year with an electrical issue. In races before 2022 at WGI, He’s only cracked the T15 once. Maybe last year was a fluke and he’ll be just as good as ever. He was having a great day before the issue. But I don’t see him belonging with the favorites up top here at the Glen. I’ll fade the #34 car and find other value elsewhere at Watkins Glen this weekend.

If you enjoyed this content, or hate it and want to argue with me, follow me on Twitter @KalebMcChesney! Also, read up on the rest of the NASCAR content Belly Up Sports offers here! Heck, for all your other sports needs, follow the main page. If you love racing of any shape or form, find Chris on Twitter, and let’s talk!