Homestead Speedway is home to the second of three races in this Round of 8 in the NASCAR Playoffs. After next week at Martinsville, the championship 4 who will race at Phoenix for the driver’s championship will be decided. But in Florida, it provides an opportunity to lock yourself in before heading into the paperclip in a bad situation or racing for the last spot.
Today, the #22, #20, #5, and #24 would be the contenders in Phoenix, with #11, #45, #12, and #9 outside the cutline. A couple of those drivers are featured this week on our picks. So let’s dive right in, here are our picks for this weekend’s race at Homestead Speedway!
Chris’s Picks: #20 Christopher Bell (+600) & #9 Chase Elliott (+1400)
Embed from Getty ImagesI know these odds aren’t going to get you the biggest of wins. However, a win is still a win and this one seems almost too good to take but that’s the fun. C Bell won this race last year and locked himself into the championship four and could very well do that again. He’s on a hot streak right now. Including back-to-back runner-up finishes and another crazy stat. In the last twenty races in the season, C Bell has only six finishes outside the top ten. Throw the money on Bell and be happy you won something in return.
Las Vegas didn’t go as planned but that’s not really a surprise considering his luck in Vegas as of recent years. However, he’s been more mid at Homestead. While mid isn’t what you want to hear when placing money on someone. However, he’s gotten stage points in four of the last eight races. Showing me he knows how to get to the top ten and stay there at least half the time. Chase and his team need stage points to head into Martinsville with a chance of advancing to the championship four. So a motivated Chase Elliott is something I will take a chance on this week.
Kaleb’s Picks: #16 A.J. Allmendinger (+4500) & #24 William Byron (+700)
Embed from Getty ImagesI’m all about finding weird values and obscure trends with these weekly articles. The A.J. Allmendinger pick is exactly what that is. In his last two runs at Homestead, Allmendinger has posted a P3 and a P5 with Kaulig racing. He only collected points in one stage, but the finish makes the big money, and an Allmendinger T5 bet is worth +550. Just something to keep in mind if you’re looking for oddball shots in the dark.
As far as the William Byron pick, he’s been quietly one of the fastest cars in the playoffs. We just don’t see him in Victory Lane nearly often enough. He hasn’t finished outside the top five since the Bristol Night Race five weeks ago. Byron’s due, and Homestead has been great to the #24. He’s finished P9, P12, and P4 with a race win in the last four races. In his win in 2021, he collected a stage two win as well. He’s collected stage points in every stage since 2020. This could be the race where he breaks the ceiling, and is worth betting on if you’re looking for somebody other than Kyle Larson.
Chris’s Fade: #12 Ryan Blaney (+1200)
Embed from Getty ImagesAnother playoff driver who didn’t have the trip to Las Vegas he wanted. Sorry Blaney Nation for the unintentional jinx I put on Ryan last week. However, I’m going against him this week. He’s only finished in the top five twice in nine career races at Homestead in the Cup Series. Even after not qualifying ever outside the top fifteen. That stat is the main one that scares me this week. Obviously, the cars had the speed to qualify well but something didn’t transition. Now with that being said this fade will probably come back to bite me but if so take it as my apology Blaney Nation.
Kaleb’s Fade: #11 Denny Hamlin (+1000)
Embed from Getty ImagesDenny Hamlin has a very turbulent relationship with luck. At this track in particular, his breaks failing and costing him a potential win at Homestead Speedway last year sticks out like a sore thumb. That P30 finish would cost him a spot in the championship four after Ryan Blaney won at Martinsville and William Byron beat him on points. Granted, he won this race in 2020 but has just one top 10 since. He’s been finding his way into the T10 as of late in the NASCAR Playoffs, but there have been several issues with car speed, and just not having the same juice as Christopher Bell. The odds just aren’t good enough for me to put cash on any substantive Hamlin bet. He should be fine here, and if you have a hunch +1000 is a steal for a driver of his caliber, but I just don’t see it.
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