The NBA MVP Award can define careers. Winning the NBA MVP means an almost-guaranteed Hall of Fame induction or at least a player becoming a major footnote in the fabric of NBA history.
The past few NBA MVP races have been some of the tightest in recent memory, with players missing just a few games making all the difference. Today, we check up on a similarly tight race, and the movement in the pack as the season starts to wind down.
5. Stephen Curry
Ranking Stephen Curry this low may come as a surprise to many, but it’s time to accept the reality of Steph’s season thus far. He has shot under 30 percent from the field eight times in his past 27 games dating back to November 30th, making up for roughly a third of his outings so far. He has also shot below 30 percent from three-point range in eight games out of the same 27, which highlights a steep drop-off in the scoring column.
Initially, Curry looked as if he would run away with the NBA MVP award, barring some career-worst shooting. Almost on cue, he worked himself into the worst shooting slump of his career. Ironically, this slump comes in a season where Curry has set two three-point shooting records: first breaking Ray Allen’s record of 2,973 career three-pointers and then breaking his own record of most consecutive games with a three-pointer made at 158, breaking his previous streak of 157.
Curry now has plenty of ground to make up if he wants to get back into the MVP conversation, and with only 30 games left, any potential run may be too little, too late.
4. Joel Embiid
Before his career is over, Joel Embiid deserves to win NBA MVP honors at least once. The main obstacle in his path? His own health.
Embiid was on track to win MVP last year, but sporadic injuries held him to just 51 games out of a possible 72. He’s not the kind of player to suffer catastrophic injuries all the time, but needing to sit out a game or two here and there can add up over a full season.
He has played the least amount of games of anyone on this list, totaling just 39 out of 50 possible to this point. Sitting out simply allows the league’s other elite stars to build their own cases while Embiid treads water, something he cannot afford in an MVP race as tight as 2022.
Currently, Joel Embiid sits atop the Vegas odds at +225 to win NBA MVP. But what are the odds he misses another 6-8 games and falls out of the race completely?
3. Chris Paul
If you shrunk LeBron James down to 6’0″ on his tippy-toes and 175 lbs with change in each pocket, he would look and play a lot like Chris Paul. The “Point God” is bumping elbows with three seven-footers on this list and putting on a masterclass in basketball IQ on a nightly basis.
How many NBA fans are aware that 2022 Chris Paul is in his 17th season, at age 36, submitting MVP-level performances nightly while leading the Phoenix Suns to the best record in the NBA? CP3 gets no respect.
Statistically, Paul is experiencing a down year in terms of scoring and efficiency but is still ranked fourth on basketballreference.com’s MVP Tracker, a statistics-based algorithm for determining the best MVP cases. Helped by his league-leading 10.4 assists per game, Chris Paul is piloting the Suns to what looks like yet another deep playoff run as the team’s best player.
You heard that right, best, as in Devin Booker defers to Paul in clutch-time best. Team success is a big factor in winning the NBA MVP Award, and if the best player on the winningest team doesn’t make it, then the players ahead of him better have some damn good cases.
He’s ahead of Embiid because he has not missed a single game this season.
NBA MVP Runner-Up: Nikola Jokic
To many, making Nikola Jokic the NBA MVP Runner-Up is ranking him too low.
Yes, he leads the league in box plus-minus with 14.4 points per 100 possessions (meaning he adds an average of 14.4 points to the team when on the floor for all you non-stat nerds), AND has a VORP of 6.2 (meaning a replacement-level player would be an average of 6.2 points worse than him, you’re welcome lay basketball fans). But it is hard to imagine a scenario in which Jokic puts up the same numbers with stars Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. in the lineup alongside him.
Currently, the Denver Nuggets are in sixth place with a record of 28-23. Records can be misleading, as a single superstar carrying an otherwise below-average team to sixth place looks and feels respectable. But the Western Conference in 2022 is extremely top-heavy, and the Nuggets are currently 13.5 games back of first. In the East, their 28-23 record would have them in the Play-In Tournament.
On a surface level, Jokic’s NBA MVP case appears to be advanced stats translating to a reasonable amount of team success. But a deeper dive reveals that Joker has good-looking stats in a weaker conference and that his teams’ “success” is circumstantial.
NBA MVP: Giannis Antetokounmpo
After overcoming a slow start due to a slew of injured teammates, Giannis Antetokounmpo has the Bucks 1.5 games back of first place in the Eastern Conference. It’s entirely possible that by the end of the season we are looking at yet another first-place finish by Milwaukee.
Each year, we have seen the Greek Freak come back from the offseason with a few new moves, leading to marginal statistical improvements. This year, those improvements came in the form of slight statistical jumps in assists, rebounds, points, and free throw percentage, a season removed from his championship run last year. Throw in Giannis’s second-best PER in his career (31.1) and second-best box plus-minus (10.5) and it should be clear who deserves the NBA MVP.
The best player who’s also a top-three player in the league, combined with a record that is likely to improve as players come back from injury, is the player that should win the NBA MVP. Call me crazy.
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