The NBA season kicks off this week! It’s time to make predictions for the new NBA season. Prediction articles can be so unpredictable. Wild predictions. Conservative predictions. Betting odds. Sometimes, all of these combined. The parity in the NBA has made the wild predictions seem tame. I would not have guessed that last year’s NBA Western Conference Finals would have been between the Minnesota Timberwolves and the Dallas Mavericks. Let’s look at my Western Conference NBA predictions for this year. You can view my NBA Eastern Conference predictions here.
NBA Worry-Wart Series
Catch up with some of the league’s contenders and pretenders by checking out my NBA Worry-Wart Series.
NBA Predictions: Western Conference
The word of the day, boys and girls, is parity. This is what the NFL used to have before the dynastic Chiefs. That thing the MLB has lost with a Dodgers/Yankees World Series (likely the first of many). The NBA has that now. This parity has not been seen in the NBA since the 1970s. You think a season, or a burgeoning dynasty, will go a certain way, and then, boom. It diverts into something different. That was your warning.
Here are my NBA predictions for the Western Conference playoffs.
- Oklahoma City Thunder
- Phoenix Suns
- Minnesota Timberwolves
- Memphis Grizzlies
- Golden State Warriors
- Denver Nuggets
- Houston Rockets
- New Orleans Pelicans
Really Sir?
Okay, hear me out. I predicted the Phoenix Suns would win the West last season. They underachieved. There is no way it happens twice in a row. I think Minnesota is still a good team after trading Karl-Anthony Towns for Julius Randle, but it feels like the team is more conventional now. You can read conventional as predictable, with the Twin Towers set downsized a bit.
An anonymous NBA executive says the Phoenix Suns are the best team in the West
— NBACentral (@TheDunkCentral) October 14, 2024
“The team to beat in the West is Phoenix, believe it or not. I think their top-end talent is just ready to make a move. KD [Kevin Durant] and Book [Devin Booker] are really, really good. They had an… pic.twitter.com/FHV4DsuTJw
Oklahoma City made the most significant upgrade of the summer. They rid themselves of their least efficient rotation player (Josh Giddey) and received arguably the best perimeter defender in the league, Alex Caruso. Adding a quality center in Isaiah Hartenstein in free agency was a bonus (though he is injured and set to return later this year). The Thunder were number one in the West last year without those upgrades.
Memphis is the fun prediction. They can play fast with Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr. They can play half-court with rookie Zach Edey. The Grizzlies can defend the point of attack with Marcus Smart. Shoot with Luke Kennard and Desmond Bane. A motivated and focused Morant is the key to their season. Before last season, Memphis was second in the West two years straight. Grizzlies versus Warriors in the playoffs is a time-honored tradition that should be rekindled this year.
Bottom Half NBA Predictions
Speaking of the Warriors, I have the former champions at number 5. This summer’s Olympics showed me how devastating Steph Curry can still be. Solid role players surround the greatest shooter of all time. Brandin Podziemski is a name to look out for in their youth movement. However, the veteran talent is significant. Buddy Hield, Draymond Green, and Andrew Wiggins will stabilize the group. Kyle Anderson was snatched from the Timberwolves’ rotation to provide critical ball handling. Jonathan Kuminga is the other scoring superstar. The Golden State Warriors went undefeated in the preseason. Don’t be surprised when they are right back in the mix.
The other fun prediction is that the Nuggets will be down to the sixth seed. The best player in the league is on their roster. Timberwolves-Nuggets first-round prediction is a rematch of last year’s second-round classic.
“I’m doing whatever I can to get Russ a ring.”
— Legion Hoops (@LegionHoops) October 11, 2024
— Aaron Gordon
(h/t @bballforever_) pic.twitter.com/mj3NogTS7d
7th and 8th Surprise
The Rockets are not an anomaly. Everybody got their extension money. They have starters coming off their bench (Amen Thompson, Tari Eason, and Steven Adams). The athleticism is both relentless and sustainable. The coach might be the best in the West. Everyone is healthy. I’m not the only one who has them as no worse than in the playoff picture.
The Pelicans would have been in last year’s playoffs had Zion Williamson not succumbed to injury during the NBA Play-In Tournament. The Lakers took their spot. Williamson is healthy and in tremendous shape this year. The balance of this Pelicans roster also has playoff experience from two years ago to fall back on. Not to mention the addition of superstar Dejounte Murray. They will seize the last spot despite starting the season without Trey Murphy.
No, For Real. Really?
Victor Wembanyama is ready now, but his team is not. They are a play-in team with new additions, Chris Paul and Harrison Barnes. Future Hall-of-Famer LeBron James also missed the playoffs in his first two seasons.
Speaking of King James (not LeBron James Jr.), I also have the Lakers out. I just don’t feel like they took the offseason too seriously. This season is going to be an annoying father-son narrative. I hope LeBron gives it a go for one more year after this one.
LeBron and Bronny James will share the court at some point during the season opener. They're going to get their photo op together, they'll get another with Ken Griffey Jr. and Sr., who will be there, they'll talk about it postgame and then we'll (maybe) move on with the season.
— Arash Markazi (@ArashMarkazi) October 22, 2024
The Sacramento Kings’ fall has more to do with the rise of everyone in their division. They will be back up. Is James Harden missing the playoffs for the first time in his career? Yeah, the Clippers aren’t predicted to go anywhere with Kawhi Leonard out indefinitely. I’m intrigued by what the Utah Jazz are putting together, but they still require seasoning.
Are You Serious Right Now?
My most challenging (read: wildest) prediction is that the current Western Conference champion, Dallas Mavericks, is not making the playoffs. Let me start by saying that Luka Doncic is my current favorite player. The playoff omission does not come easy. I did not like the Klay Thompson signing in free agency. I did not like the former majority owner, Mark Cuban, selling a majority stake in the team to a Vegas group while openly courting the idea of purchasing an expansion team in Vegas. Dante Exum, a major contributor last season, is out for three months with a wrist injury.
This was Luka’s shortest offseason, with the NBA Finals followed by the Olympics in Paris. I don’t like the wear and tear on his body. Kyrie Irving has had previous team-carrying attempts that have failed.
Western Conference Champions
The Oklahoma City Thunder strike fear into the entire NBA with an early NBA Finals appearance. Youth permeates this roster, led by a 26-year-old MVP candidate in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. They have reinforcements returning from injury mid-season and after the season. They have assets to trade for a superstar. For example, outside of the top two players on the defending champion Celtics, I believe the Thunder have the assets to trade for ANYONE they want from the Eastern Conference. It’s fair to fear the Thunder this year and moving forward.
Photo Credit for featured cover image: Getty Images.
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