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It’s a Small World is one of Disney’s most iconic and historic rides. In the ride, patrons mosey around a moat in a small boat and see a lot of animated dolls displaying the cultures of the world, with the tune in the background reminding the audience “It’s a Small World Afterall.” The Houston Rockets aim to put that theory to the test.
The story with the Houston Rockets this season has been simple: size doesn’t matter. The Rockets began toying with the idea of small ball in January, and effectively were playing with the 6’5” PJ Tucker as the listed “center.” Houston traded away center Clint Capela on February 5th, just before the deadline, and got Robert Covington (not a center) in return. Houston wasn’t officially center-less (they still have 22-year-old Isaiah Hartenstein and 37-year-old Tyson Chandler on the roster, who have played in a combined 49 games for Houston), but they were effectively center-less.
The experiment was at the very least interesting. Houston went 11-6 in exclusively small-ball lineups between the end of January and the start of the COVID Pandemic. That’s good for a .647 win percentage, noticeably better than their .617 win percentage before the experiment. Further, Capela was having a season of nagging heel and foot injuries, and the switch may have been a necessity by March. Capela has been embraced in Atlanta but did not ever get on the floor before the pause in play.
Now, the Houston Rockets look to make a splash in Orlando when play resumes. And without any certainty of what lays ahead, Houston’s small-ball should at least be more of a thrill ride than Small World. Houston, even with no minutes from a traditional center, appears to be built for this restart.
In the NBA playoffs, you typically see a lot more isolation plays than you do in the regular season. Even teams heralded for their ball movement, like the Golden State Warriors of the last three seasons, relied more heavily on isolation basketball in the playoffs. To over-simplify it: in a seven-game series, between the number of games, the practices, and the film study, a team is going to learn every set you’re running. But, if you have someone who can just go get a bucket, it’s harder to scheme for.
Houston has two of those “someones” in 2018 MVP James Harden and 2017 MVP Russell Westbrook.
In this restart, after so much time off, analysts are indicating you’re going to see very simple playbooks. Even teams that have mastered the X’s and O’s are going to need to dial it back for such a quick jump back into action. To over-simplify it: with so few games to get to full-speed before the playoffs, it’s going to be hard to get back into the flow you would normally be in for the playoffs and learn or relearn a bunch of sets. But, if you have someone who can just go get a bucket, it’s easier to do that than rush the learning process of some new offensive scheme.
Houston has two of those “someones” in 2018 MVP James Harden and 2017 MVP Russell Westbrook.
Houston’s offense is built for the 2020 restart and NBA playoffs because it is simple: our guy is going to go into isolation on your guy. If you don’t help, he’s going to get a bucket. If you do help, the guy you’re helping off of is going to shoot a three, and there’s a 37% chance it’s going in. It’s what they’ve done for several years now, and it’s not changing in the next three-month period.
After the LA teams and Milwaukee, Houston frequently has the fourth or fifth best odds to win the NBA title. Oddsmakers see a pair of MVPs and the advantages that brings to the bubble… but what does their schedule show stands in their way?
Based on current win-loss records, Houston has the third easiest schedule of any Western Conference team currently in the playoffs. They do see Milwaukee and the Lakers, but they get to hold off on their back to back until games six and seven against San Antonio and Indiana. San Antonio will be without LaMarcus Aldridge for the restart, and Victor Oladipo has not indicated he’s in a rush to come back and play for Indiana.
The biggest game for Houston may come right out of the gate against Dallas. Houston holds tiebreakers with most of the teams ahead of them in the standings, but the first three-way tie-breaker is if any team involved is a division winner. If Houston can beat Dallas on the 31st, they essentially lock up the division and thus would also have that tiebreaker. Then, in catching up in the standings, they don’t need to get past Denver, Utah, or Oklahoma City… they just need to get even with them.
One thing to look out for with Houston will be their legs. The isolation heavy offensive sets have, historically, always worn down D’Antoni coached teams by the late playoffs. The four-month break from competitive basketball may be the saving grace that Houston needed. In a similar vein, Houston may use their eight games as more of a tuneup to jockey for position. If Houston can secure a preferential first-round matchup, they may load manage Harden or Westbrook.
Home court advantage in these playoffs really means nothing, so Houston may rather the six seed versus the five seed if they like the potential matchup. They may not care about being the four or the five if the other team is locked in no matter what, and choose to be better rested instead. The end of the eight restart games will be interesting for the Rockets and will help shed light on what they are prioritizing heading into the playoffs.
Even if these aren’t a particularly important eight games for the Houston Rockets, they lead into a very important postseason. Houston has pushed the Golden State dynasty to the brink several times in the last half-decade, and now that they’re out of the way it opens a door they and the other contenders are hoping to close behind them.
James Harden turns 31 in August. Russell Westbrook turns 32 in November. Head Coach Mike D’Antoni turned 69 last May. Each of them has Hall of Fame resumes as they stand, but they also each lack one key accolade: a championship. Further, D’Antoni’s contract ends at the end of this season, and Houston’s under new ownership since he was hired in 2016. The two-time coach of the year knows the team has high expectations, and he may be coaching to earn a new deal.
Westbrook’s playing style won’t last him forever. While he is explosive and fun to watch, how many more seasons can his biggest weapon be his speed? Russell needs to win now. He had a few disappointing season finishes since Kevin Durant left his side in 2016. The Thunder lost in the first round in each postseason since Durant’s exodus, and much of that blame has fallen on Westbrook’s shoulders. Westbrook has time to alter the narrative, but time is running out.
Last week, Harden was speaking with Allen Iverson and said, “I feel like everything that I’m going through right now is what you went through, just a newer version. You keep on saying criticism, negative energy, negativity. Why does he do this why does he do that, like nobody understands and I’m cool with that, you know, I’m not here to explain myself or try to get people to understand why come from what I do.” The comments drew backlash, and most tried to cite a couple of differences between the two. Some even called the comparison crazy and argued in favor of Iverson. Most critics complained Harden isn’t “fun to watch,” whatever that means. He has led the league in scoring for a third consecutive season and was in the top-2 of MVP voting four of the last five years. And if Iverson changed the league by utilizing the crossover, how many videos of players working on step-backs do we need to see before Harden’s impact on the future of the game is recognized?
Iverson is a Hall of Fame combo guard who led the league in scoring four times, but he never won an NBA title. His most legendary performance was in Game 1 of the 2001 NBA Finals, the 76ers lone win of that series. If Harden and Houston can handle business this post-season, he may add something to his resume Iverson never could. Yes, it would be a weird title, but a title is something you can’t take away from someone’s resume. They may try to asterisk it to diminish the victor, but Harden has shown he is the master of the “and-1,” he can take the hit.
Let’s face it, if this title is going to have an asterisk, it is destined that Houston wins it. The two titles they won in the ’90s? *Jordan didn’t play in 93-94 and wasn’t really playing like himself in 94-95. The Oilers go to the 2000 Super Bowl? *They had just become the Tennessee Titans. The 2018 Rockets had one of the best ORTG and point differential combinations ever? *Chris Paul gets hurt, who cares? The Houston Roughnecks go undefeated? *The XFL never finished the season. The Astros in 2017? *The Astros in 2017.
If we’re going to all diminish the title when it’s over because of how COVID impacted the season, it feels like it has to go to Houston. So maybe we don’t, so it won’t. But if we do, then H-Town, what it do?
HOUSTON ROCKETS BUBBLE RECORD PROJECTION: 6-2; (at least) Western Conference Finalists
