NASCAR Playoff Driver Chances

With the NASCAR playoff’s starting Sunday at Las Vegas everyone is scrounging for some odds on who they should pick to win the championship. Maybe even odds of who can just make it to the championship four at Homestead if your entered in the Belly Up Contest. I will try to make it real easy for all who read by splitting each of the sixteen driver’s into four categories. Each driver is out to prove a point.

So, lets first go over the sixteen driver standings as of right now before the green flag drops in “Sin City.” Take a look at the picture below to get your breakdown, and current order in the standings of each driver. I am going to seperate out each driver into four categories like I mentioned above. Each category will go over the individual driver and why they are categorized where they sit on the list.

Long Shot’s

Lets start with the long shot drivers, these are the guys that honestly are going to have the hardest time making it out of the first round much less to the championship four at Homestead to compete for the championship

Ryan Newman 16^th Overall: Newman has been one of the drivers who has greatly over achieved in the equipment he’s had this year. He is second to only Joey Logano in laps completed this year and also was able to have a regular season without one DNF. While all that is well and dandy the issue in the playoff’s is that occasional top ten’s can only get a team so far. Also Newman has only led sixteen laps all regular season. Which is by far the fewest among the playoff field.

Clint Bowyer 15^th Overall: Last year Clint was a driver who was able to lock his playoff spot in early with his win at Martinsville then was able to capture a second at Michigan. This year he’s not been so lucky. Just barely snagging his 15^th overall spot with two races to go before the playoffs. While he was able to snag three single digit finishes to show when backed into a corner what he and his team can do. Like mentioned above top ten finishes will only take you so far in the playoffs.

Aric Almirola 14^th Overall: Almirola is a driver who in my opinion is some what lucky to be in the field this year at all. I mean he only has one top five in twenty six regular season races. That doesn’t seem like it is going to fair well in the loaded playoff field this year. While he does have the experience and veteran intangibles it is going to be very difficult this year, when it has appeared that SHR minus Harvick has really lacked some speed.

Ryan Blaney 12^th Overall: The what some would say forgotten driver of the Penske Camp. With teammates like Keselowski, and Logano it’s easy to see how he could be forgotten. I think the only hope Blaney has of making the final four is if Team Penske can turn the switch up like they did last season with Logano. That being said Ryan has not made as much of an aggressive point in this regular season like he did last year. He just not been able to compete consistently for wins week in and week out which if they want to have a chance needs to be fixed.

Possible Driver’s

These driver’s are similar in ways to the long shot drivers, but with a little less tweaking could make a run in the playoff and shock the masses of race fans everywhere.

William Byron 13^th Overall: William in his second year has jumped leaps and bounds over his rookie year. Now whether that be because he’s matured or because of the help of seven time championship winning crew chief addition who knows? Either way he has been a driver I have kept an eye on all year who has showed great speed in qualifying just needs to close it out with a win. William could really shock some and pull of as surprise win early on in the playoffs.

Kyle Larson 11^th Overall: Kyle has honestly been one of the most unlucky driver’s this season. Him and fellow playoff driver Clint Bowyer are tied for the most wreck related DNF’s this season with six a piece. That is a total that could come back to haunt the CGR driver in the playoff’s if mistakes are made and he winds up back in the pack. While I will say this the run of solid finishes he had minus the Indianapolis wreck to finish the regular season could’ve helped breath some life into that what some would say stagnant #42 team.

Erik Jones 10^th Overall: The winner of the Southern 500, the man who everyone was talking about loosing his ride to Christopher Bell. Erik Jones has been a consistent driver this year week in and week out just hasn’t really lived up to the expectations that his teammates have been setting all year long. With the extension of his contract finalized I think a clear head is a positive for Erik, but he hasn’t won a stage all season. That means he will have only the five points from his Darlington win to carry against his elimination.

Alex Bowman 9^th Overall: Alex had the pressure put on him early on this season when he was able to finish 2^nd three consecutive races. With his win at Chicagoland he was finally able to scratch out the zero in career wins, but Bowman as of late has seemed to have lost all that momentum he had before that first win. Since his late June win he has not been able to finish in the top five.

Probable

These driver’s really are past champions or are consistent enough in the playoffs past that they could easily make the jump into the final four and it wouldn’t be a surprise to any one.

Kurt Busch 8^th Overall: The 41 year old champion has really brought a rejuvenated attitude to the #1 team this year with his performances. I think in all seriousness he was on a mission to show that he still is a championship contender and I couldn’t agree more. In twenty six regular season races Kurt has only finished outside of the top fifteen six times all season. While Kurt has been running at the finish of every race this season, that all or nothing mentality is not a good way to forecast how deeply he’ll run into the playoffs.

Chase Elliott 7^th Overall: With an early season win at Talladega, the nine team had a rough go at the tracks until they were able to secure the second win at Watkins Glenn. Since that win he has only one finish outside of the top ten. So, it seems like his team has got a hold back on things. While it is troubling that he had a rough seven race stretch. He is going into the playoffs with three career wins at playoff tracks. Chase has kind of carried the HMS banner this year whether he admits it or not so look for him to make a run if things stay positive for him and his team.

Joey Logano 5^th Overall: The 2018 Champion was able to win the championship last year and silence a lot of his critics. The uphill battle that he climbs now is the fact that no champion has been a repeat champion since Jimmies run of five in a row. Also his runner up finish at Indy snapped an eight race streak of no top five finishes. Hopefully for Logano fans he is not slowing down at the wrong time after his two wins earlier in the season.

Martin Truex Jr. 3^rd Overall: The 2017 Champion early on looked to be back in championship winning form. Honestly he has been super consistent all year much like Kurt Busch in twenty six races, he has only finished outside of the top twenty four times. He also even though part of a new team is still with long time crew chief Cole Pearn which makes for a difference come crunch time. Also I mean the bonus points from four wins alone could help him with just some top ten runs make it to the championship four. The Achilles heal for this team could be the inconsistency as of late they aren’t exactly blasting into the playoff’s on momentum. They have had three straight finishes outside of the top ten.

Most Likely

Brad Keselowski 6^th Overall: Brad has been able to win three times this year. He’s also been able to lead laps in seventeen of the twenty six races thus far this year. Show’s me he has been able to get up front and stay up front. The worrisome thing to me though is Brad hasn’t really made annual appearances in the championship four, he actually only has one in 2017. So, we will really see if he is ready for championship number two.

Kevin Harvick 4^th Overall: Kevin Harvick and his team really had trouble early on picking up where they left off in 2018. They went a good part of the season win less, but fear not because during the final seven regular season races Harvick has grabbed three wins, and six top tens. The problem that could arise for them is the fact this playoff format really can humble a star driver like Kevin. If the speed starts to leave this team like early on in the season they could have problem.

Denny Hamlin 2^nd Overall: Denny is an obvious choice for comeback season award. I mean he experienced his first career win less season in 2018. Then came out and won the arguably the biggest race to start the year the Daytona 500. Since then he has done nothing but cement his place in the upper drivers list of the series. He has had recently two wins among a six race streak of top fives. He is for sure carrying some steam into the playoff’s. Denny’s drawback is this though in the playoff’s he seems to fall off a little. He hasn’t made it to the final four during the elimination style format since 2014. Does that mean that he will choke this year well no, but it does loom over his head like an ugly cloud.

Kyle Busch 1^st Overall: The regular season Champion Kyle Busch, has been the picture of success this year. Whether it be his four wins or the fact that in twenty six races the man really only has three finishes total outside of the top fifteen. If we are being honest race fans Kyle has 45 bonus points to carry thru each round of elimination that could help him easily glide to the championship four. The only instance I really see him not making it is if lighting strikes twice at the unpredictable tracks like Talladega and the Charlotte Roval. Disastrous races that involve one DNF or a horrible finish could put the “Candy Man” on an uphill battle.

Conclusion

The NASCAR playoffs are four rounds of constant battles. I mean really it’s not much different than a race with four stages. The first race might seem some what lack luster but as races continues to click off each round you will see the aggression and competitive nature of each driver jump a few notches. Each of these drivers unless winning or consistently running in the top five will almost have to be fighting for each cut off spot. I mean look at what happen between Martin Truex and Joey Logano last year at Martinsville.

“Some are going to like it, and haters are going to hate a little bit, but I’m a hard racer. I don’t think that’s a secret to anyone. We’re here to win a championship this year.”

Joey Logano being asked about his controversial finish last year at Martinsville.

While fighting for each and every point some of these drivers will be looking for there first wins. For some the first championship to cement themselves in NASCAR history, other’s a very select few will be looking for Championship number two to really mark there names down as a legend. So, one thing is certain though there can only be one to hoist the championship at the end of the race at Homestead. Who do you think it will be and why?