Congratulations to Derek Jeter and Larry Walker on headlining the Baseball Hall of Fame class of 2020. They will be joined on July 26th by Ted Simmons who was inducted via the Veterans Committee. While Cooperstown waits for its newest members, we will look ahead to next winter, when the members of the BBWAA will cast their ballots for the Baseball Hall of Fame class of 2021.
Top Returning Candidates
Curt Schilling (70%): Schilling added 9% to his total from 2019 and another increase of that amount would earn Schilling a spot in the class of 2021. Schilling has the accolades worthy of induction by the writers but has run up against the “character clause” that some voters follow. His social media outbursts aside, Schilling is one of the best postseason pitchers in MLB history. An 11-2 record with a 2.23 ERA to go along with the 2001 World Series MVP highlight an excellent postseason resume. His finest postseason moment, however, came in the 2004 ALCS against the New York Yankees. Pitching on a bad ankle, and by bad I mean recently surgically repaired, Schilling allowed one run over seven innings and helped the Boston Red Sox break the Curse of the Bambino.
Roger Clemens (61%): Clemens candidacy has been clouded by his alleged steroid use during his illustrious career. His 61% only shows a 1.5% increase from 2019, showing a lack of new support for Clemens. Most voters, and casual fans alike, have made their minds up about Clemens. His seven Cy Young awards certainly show that he is Hall of Fame worthy, but voters continue to leave him off their ballots. With only two years remaining, Clemens’ chances are starting to dwindle.
Barry Bonds (60.7%): Bonds, like Clemens, remains on the ballot for this long only because of his connection to steroid use. Arguably the greatest hitter of all time, Bonds’ 762 home runs and 688 intentional walks are records that may never be broken. Seven MVP’s sit in Bonds’ trophy case as do eight gold gloves, will Bonds be able to add “Hall of Fame” to one of the greatest resumes of all time?
Top Newcomers
Mark Buehrle: Buehrle has the highest career WAR of any potential newcomer to the ballot in 2021 with 59.2. That total ranks behind 10 of the 14 holdovers from the 2020 ballot, including Bobby Abreu, who appeared on just 5.5% of the ballots submitted. Buehrle’s 214 wins put him only two behind Curt Schilling, but his 3.81 ERA his extraordinarily average, and he only appeared on a Cy Young ballot once. Buehrle looks like a long shot to make the hall.
Tim Hudson: Hudson’s 58.1 career WAR ranks behind Buehrle, but Hudson seems to have the best shot of any newcomers to make the hall. His 3.49 ERA is in line with Schilling’s, and Hudson’s three seasons with an ERA below 3.00 give him better peak seasons than Buehrle. His four top 10 Cy Young finishes round out a solid resume, but Hudson appears to have an uphill climb towards induction.
Torii Hunter: Hunter’s 50.1 career WAR is the highest among position players new to the ballot in 2021, but ranks behind every holdover position player except Omar Vizquel. With Bobby Abreu only appearing on 5.5% of the 2020 ballots, Hunter’s case rests largely on how much voters value his extra 65 home runs and nine gold glove awards. Hunter will most likely have a similar vote count to Abreu come next year.
The 2021 Baseball Hall of Fame Ceremony is shaping up to be one that has haunted writer’s dreams, a ceremony where Curt Schilling is the only inductee via the BBWAA. Barring big jumps from Bonds and Clemens, or an astronomical jump from Omar Vizquel, Schilling is in line to be the only man on the stage in Cooperstown in July of 2021.
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1 Comment
Not to sound like a Cleveland homer, but come on..no love for Vizquel? In any non-steroid era, he gets far more consideration than a lot of people seem to give him.
Schilling would already have been in (his postseason career is pretty crazy alone) if he’d have kept his mouth shut about politics, and I think he makes a valid case for separating the player from the person.
Clemens was acquitted of steroid-related perjury, and the only witnesses against him were a guy who was bullied by an overly enthusiastic Red Sox connected investigation and a guy who had inconclusive DNA preserved in a beer can. Clemens deserves to go in, period, in the absence of a positive test.
Bonds has to be judged by this same criteria, so he also should go in.