It seems Chaim Bloom and the Red Sox front office will focus more on the MLB club this offseason. The Sox’ Chief Baseball Officer suggested such at the team’s end-of-season press conference last week.
Bloom said he believes Boston’s prospect depth is deep enough to begin exploring significant additions and trades that send prospects away. And he said the Red Sox feel their pitching depth is good enough to consider numerous scenarios to upgrade the staff.
Good timing. There is tons of work ahead for Bloom and Co. to rebuild this Red Sox pitching staff, with lots of money to spend.
Pitching Staff a Significant Reason for 2022 Red Sox’ Downfall
The 2022 Red Sox pitching staff consisted of 28 pitchers, including 11 starters and seven rookies (four rookie starters).
It did not go well.
Boston was 24th in MLB with a 4.53 team ERA, had a 22 percent strikeout rate (21st), and an 8.5 percent walk rate (20th). Red Sox pitchers allowed the second-worst barrel rate (8.5 percent) and third-worst hard-hit rate (40 percent).
Boston hurlers generated an 11 percent swinging strike rate (21st) and a 25 percent whiff rate (21st). Opposing batters made contact 77.5 percent of the time (22nd) with a .745 OPS (24th) and .321 xwOBA (23rd).
Sox starters had a 4.49 ERA (22nd), a 21 percent strikeout rate (18th), and a 7.5 percent walk rate (14th). They allowed the ninth-highest contact rate (79 percent) and generated a 10 percent swinging strike rate (19th). And opposing batters had a 40 percent hard-hit rate (22nd) and a nine percent barrel rate (27th) against them.
The Sox were 56-46 when Michael Wacha, Nick Pivetta, Rich Hill, and Nathan Eovaldi started and were 21-36 when anyone else started. (Austin Davis opened three games, so I did not include him.)
Boston’s bullpen had a 4.59 ERA (26th), a 23 percent strikeout rate (17th), and a 10 percent walk rate (25th). Boston relievers allowed a 75.5 percent contact rate against (20th) and generated an 11.4 percent swinging strike rate (26th). Opposing batters had the fifth-highest barrel rate (eight percent) and the highest hard-hit rate (40.4 percent) against them.
Boston relievers allowed 40 percent of inherited runners to score, the highest rate of any bullpen in the sport.
Chaim Bloom Not Lying About Pitching Depth
You may not have realized it if you watched from July on, but the Red Sox do have some MLB quality depth on their pitching staff. It was tested mightily, sure, and did not exactly work out well.
It is also fair to say there is more clarity to the situation heading into 2023. Not everybody that appeared last season will end up in the same role.
Also, some players currently on the Red Sox pitching staff have uncertain futures.
But there’s still quality depth there.
Notable Names on Red Sox Pitching Staff You’ve Heard Of
Garrett Whitlock and Tanner Houck can both start or relieve, giving the Red Sox flexibility at the MLB level.
Brayan Bello and Kutter Crawford established themselves as legit big-league pitchers in 2022. Bello was forced to Boston quicker than I think even the Red Sox expected, and it showed (10.50 ERA in first three starts). But he began to figure it out on the fly, pitching to a 3.12 ERA over his final eight starts. He should be competing for a rotation spot in spring training.
Crawford started 2022 in the bullpen and struggled. He was sent down on May 14 and returned as a starter, where he went off (3.33 ERA next ten games). He last pitched on August 30 due to injury. Crawford could be the 2023 version of Hector Velazquez/Brian Johnson from 2018.
Josh Winckowski struggled, but his sinker/slider combination flashed groundball specialist potential. He easily could be bullpen depth in 2023 (spot starter, too, obviously).
Top prospects before getting hurt, Bryan Mata (sixth on MLB Pipeline‘s Red Sox top 30) and Thad Ward (15th on MLB Pipeline) returned from injury mid-season and should help the Red Sox pitching staff in some capacity in 2023, barring any setbacks.
Zack Kelly (29th on soxprospects.com‘s top 60) was one of the biggest surprises on the 2022 Red Sox, walking four and striking out 11 over 13.2 innings. It is unlikely he is on the Opening Day roster, but he should be one of the first arms called up when something happens.
Andrew Politi (49th on soxprospects.com) is knocking on the door, too. He had a 2.34 ERA with 22 walks and 83 strikeouts over 69.1 innings last season, with most of his time spent in Worcester.
And a Couple of Notable Pitchers You Probably Don’t Know
24-year-old left-hander Chris Murphy (11th on MLB Pipeline), drafted in 2019, made it to Double-A by 2021, posting a 4.62 ERA over 101.1 innings (21 games, 20 starts) between A-ball and Double-A. He posted a 4.03 ERA over 152 innings (30 games, 28 starts) between Double-A and Triple-A in 2022. Murphy finally showed a consistent ability last season to get right-a handers out, a crucial step in his starter development.
26-year-old Brandon Walter (seventh on MLB Pipeline), also a lefty, was an afterthought until 2021. But Walter quickly became a top-10 prospect in the Red Sox system. He significantly improved his stock during 2020, increasing his velocity and control over the canceled minor league season. The lefty began 2021 in the Salem bullpen but pitched his way into the rotation in no time. Walter struck out 132 and walked only 20 over 89.1 innings that season. But he did not pitch after June 7 last season due to a bulging disc (11 games, 57.2 innings between Portland and Worcester).
There are even more prospects in the lower minors, too.
Being able to trade a couple of prospects for a young, controllable starter or reliever and not mortgage the future should go a long way in upgrading the Red Sox’ pitching staff.
The Red Sox can go in any direction they want, for the most part. Expect a different kind of offseason from Bloom. Just temper expectations, okay? Don’t expect blockbuster signings (except Xander Bogaerts or Rafael Devers) or trades.
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