Rob Refsnyder came from seemingly out of nowhere for the Red Sox.
A minor league signing by the Red Sox last December with an invite to spring training, Rob Refsnyder didn’t exactly light the world on fire this spring, hitting only .185/.290/.370/.660 over 31 plate appearances.
He was in consideration for the final spot on the Red Sox Opening Day roster, though. But the Sox ultimately went with two utility infielders and no true backup outfielder.
Boy, that backfired quickly.
Since being recalled for a second and final time in early June, however, the 31-year-old outfielder has taken his opportunity and run with it, more than earning the chance to, at the very least, compete for a fourth outfielder role on the 2023 team. (He’s earned it outright, let’s be honest.)
Rob Refsnyder Having Career Year With Red Sox
Since being recalled from Worcester on June 10, Rob Refsnyder has hit .313/.387/.507/.894 with six home runs, 21 RBI, and a 149 wRC+ over 56 games (173 PA) for the Red Sox. The masher of left-handed pitching is hitting right-handed pitching just fine this season, as well. He’s batting .279/.370/.442/.812 with three home runs, 13 RBI, nine walks, and 26 strikeouts vs. righties (100 PA) and .359/.411/.594/1.005 with three home runs, eight RBI, six walks, and 18 strikeouts vs. lefties (73 PA).
Refsnyder has a .960 OPS at Fenway Park, a .818 OPS on the road, and a .938 OPS in 143 PA as a starter.
Among Red Sox hitters (minimum 45 PA), Rob Refsnyder is sixth in walk rate (8.7 percent); second in average, OPS, and wRC+; first in on-base percentage; and third in slugging percentage and hard-hit rate (45 percent).
He’s also fifth in Wins Above Replacement (1.2) among Sox hitters.
What’s Different About Red Sox’s Version of Rob Refsnyder?
Good question. Well, for one, the former fifth-round pick is hitting the ball harder, especially pitches up, barreling pitches at a higher rate (11 percent), and generally making the best contact (49.5 percent sweet spot rate, just one metric) he ever has. Secondly, he’s hitting more line drives and fewer groundballs. Thirdly, his overall offensive approach is just better than its ever been.
And the underlying metrics suggest the South Korean-born outfielder’s offensive breakout is real. Per Statcast, Refsnyder has a .290 expected batting average, a .481 expected slugging percentage, and a .378 expected weighted on-base percentage.
Among the 405 MLB hitters with at least 100 batted balls in 2022, Refsnyder is first in sweet spot rate, top 10 in xBA and xwOBA, 29th in xSLG, 82nd in barrel rate, 84th in hard-hit per swing rate (15.8 percent), and 89th in barrels per plate appearance (6.8).
Rob Refsnyder Is a Quality Fourth Outfielder
Forget about Rob Refsnyder’s bat for a second. He’s just as good defensively as almost everybody that’s patrolled the outfield for the 2022 Red Sox except Enrique Hernandez and Jackie Bradley Jr.
Hernandez has 4 Outs Above Average/3 Defensive Runs Saved despite missing most of 2022, and JBJ has 4 OAA/7 DRS. Refsnyder has 0 OAA/0 DRS in centerfield and -2 0AA/-3 DRS in right field. In contrast, Franchy Cordero has accumulated -3 OAA/-1 DRS in right, Jarren Duran -2 OAA/-7 DRS in center, and Tommy Pham -5 OAA/1 DRS in left field.
Surprisingly, Alex Verdugo has -4 OAA/0 DRS in left and 0 OAA/-4 DRS in right.
Consider his bat, and the Red Sox have themselves a good fourth outfielder for 2023.
The decision to keep Rob Refsnyder or let him go is probably easy for the Red Sox, with the revelation that Pham’s mutual option is worth $12 million. Refsnyder, too, is technically under team control through 2025, having only three years of service time.
I’ll likely repeat this a lot this winter. Finding players who can play in Boston and thrive is hard. And players who prove they can handle the environment shouldn’t be an afterthought.
For daily Red Sox coverage, follow me on Twitter. For more MLB coverage, follow @BellyUpBaseball and check out Belly Up Sport’s other MLB content.
