Another year, another offseason full of superstar free agent shortstops for MLB. After last year featured Carlos Correa, Trevor Story, Javier Baez, and Corey Seager in its vaunted class, we’re in for another haul this year in the middle infield. Correa is back on the market along with Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, and Dansby Swanson to seek some massive dollars from a lucky team in need of a superstar.
Unlike last year which saw very few real bidders materialize, these four will have an insanely competitive market to enter. Close to half the league could look to kick the tires on the free-agent shortstops, including some massive spenders. Even smaller markets are looking to engage in a loaded offseason that could change a franchise’s fortunes. Expect big money to be thrown around as bidding wars rage for these four’s services.
Taking money, fit, and more into account, let’s try to predict where the shortstops end up.
Dansby Swanson is the Only One of the Shortstops to Stay Put
Of all the big-name shortstops, I feel most confident in Swanson sticking with his original team. The Atlanta Braves have been aggressive in their efforts to keep the core locked up long-term. They most recently inked extensions for their youngest players Austin Riley, Spencer Strider, and Michael Harris II with Ronald Acuña Jr., Ozzie Albies, and Matt Olson also under lengthy deals. All that’s left is to lock up Swanson and, to be fair, he makes the most sense with Atlanta. He broke out with his best offensive season last year with a 115 OPS+ but his defense was otherworldly. With a ridiculous 20 OAA, he took home his first Gold Glove this year.
Even if you don’t buy the offensive breakout, Swanson’s defense is still stellar enough to give him massive value. Given the Braves enjoy a glut of superstar hitters, he’ll fit right in even if the bat doesn’t reach the same level as in 2022. However, if Atlanta fails to bring back their hometown hero, there will be plenty of suitors for his services. Notably, the Dodgers would be a solid fit especially if they can’t bring back Turner. The St. Louis Cardinals have also been rumored to be in on a shortstop and may prefer the lower cost of Swanson to the hefty contracts expected for the rest. Ditto the Chicago Cubs who are heavily in the shortstop market this year.
Although there hasn’t been traction yet, it’s hard to see Swanson leave Atlanta. I feel they’ll inevitably hand him the deal he’s looking for.
Honorable Mentions: Dodgers, Cardinals, Cubs
Xander Bogaerts Leaves Boston for the West Coast and L.A.
Boston may say goodbye to its two-time world-champion shortstop. The Red Sox are still pushing to keep Bogaerts, but the competition will be fierce for the ultra-consistent hitter. In the fight for his services, chances are the Dodgers will come out on top. L.A. is potentially losing a shortstop in Turner this winter. On top of that, their expiring contracts and non-tenders leave room to throw their financial weight around. Given the former may be looking to head out East, they could fill that hole with Bogaerts coming off another great offensive year. This time around, though, he combined a 131 OPS+ with vastly improved defense to the tune of 5 OAA.
Bogaerts, to me, is a toss-up, however. The Chicago Cubs want to land a top shortstop this offseason, though they’re seemingly unwilling to doll out 7+ year deals. That might not be a problem with Bogaerts though. Like Swanson, he’s one of the more likely to sign a deal in the six-year range and Chicago has the cash to pump up the AAV. He’d also help jumpstart a Cubs team looking to end their latest rebuild. With a reloaded farm system and some interesting young pieces, Bogaerts would give them a superstar to bring it together. The Phillies are also a strong contender, but they may have their eyes on a bigger prize in the shortstop market. Don’t preclude Boston from putting their foot down to ensure their homegrown star doesn’t bid farewell to Fenway either.
I feel it’ll boil down to L.A. and Chicago, but when the Dodgers want something, they get it done. They won’t leave the shortstop market without something to show for it and if they do, it’ll be a surprise.
Honorable Mentions: Cubs, Phillies, Red Sox
Trea Turner is the Best Fit of the Shortstops for Philly
While L.A. would undoubtedly love to have Turner back, reporting has it that he prefers to be closer to home. Philadelphia, meanwhile, has the money, the fit, and the proximity that could entice Turner to slot in with former Nationals teammate Bryce Harper. Coming off a 121 OPS+ season, Turner would shore up the infield for Philly while adding another dimension to the offense. Shortstop was a particularly tough position all year for the team. Didi Gregorius was released and Bryson Stott didn’t inspire much confidence with an 84 OPS+.
Turner would add a new wrinkle to an offense focused on slug thanks to his speed. Ranking in the 99th percentile in sprint speed, he’ll be able to earn plenty of extra bases setting up the meat of the lineup. He might not age as gracefully as others, but the bat still profiles to be solid even as he loses his wheels.
Turner’s had a lot of connections this offseason with the Giants, Mets, Cubs, Mariners, and more seen as potential fits. Where Philly could run into trouble is with the Dodgers themselves. Again, they would love to have Turner back considering his stellar play in his short time in L.A. and they’re going to fight tooth and nail to land one of the shortstops. If they add just a bit more cash to sweeten the pot, they might still be able to bring the smooth middle infielder back for the next several years. Still, the connections to Philadelphia are undeniable and the fit is perfect. Add in Dave Dombrowski who’ll have no qualms about dropping a massive deal and everything’s lining up for a new superstar Phillie.
Honorable Mentions: Dodgers, Giants, Mariners
Carlos Correa Finds a Long-Term Deal and Home in Baltimore
After taking what was essentially a one-year pillow contract with Minnesota, Correa is back to play the free agency game again. This time, though, he’s more likely to come away with that massive contract than before. If anyone’s going to give it to him, the likeliest seems to be the Baltimore Orioles. While it may seem odd for the birds to land one of the big shortstops, the connection was already there. Last year, Mike Elias floated a 10-year, $300 million contract to see if Correa would bite on a somewhat cheaper deal. With more certainty in a burgeoning core, I think they’ll add that extra bit to bring the shortstop to Maryland.
Most importantly, Elias seemed more open to the super long-term deal Correa would want. That might be even more true this offseason with Correa playing a substantial 136 games with a 140 OPS+. Given the reluctance there is for those lengthy contracts, offering ten years again could give the Orioles the edge.
That said, the Cubs would also be a great fit for Correa. Thanks to that vastly-improved farm system and young talent, it would be the perfect time to strike. Correa would slot right in, giving them a star to build around and an impressive defensive middle-infield with Nico Hoerner. Again, all indications are that they don’t want to commit to a longer deal right now. They love Correa and plenty of outlets have labeled them as the favorites, but I feel Baltimore will give the shortstop closer to the cash AND years he wants than Chicago.
Honorable Mentions: Cubs, Giants, Twins
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