Spring Training is upon us! Baseball is officially back. Some in Red Sox Nation — and most of the national baseball media — are down on the 2023 Red Sox. There’s reason to feel that way. Boston has numerous questions throughout the roster. However, none of the questions facing the Sox this season are as significant as the pitching rotation.
The 2023 Red Sox rotation has the potential to be solid, even good. But health and durability will determine just how good it will be. The upside is there, though, with Garrett Whitlock, Brayan Bello, and a healthy Chris Sale. And how good the rotation is will determine how far the Red Sox will go. The lineup is sneakily underrated, even without Trevor Story, and the bullpen is vastly improved. Yes, Story’s injury is a killer, but I don’t think this lineup will struggle in Story’s absence as much as some think. The front office’s focus on adding on-base ability and contact hitters will go a long way.
On paper, the defense is probably a bit better than last year, too.
I know it doesn’t inspire much confidence to say the pitching rotation is the key to the 2023 Red Sox’s competitive aspirations, but it’s true.
2023 Red Sox Pitching Rotation: Health Questions, Better and Deeper Depth
A lack of MLB quality pitching depth killed the 2022 Red Sox. They used 12 pitchers in the rotation, going 56-46 when Nick Pivetta, Nathan Eovaldi, Rich Hill, and Michael Wacha started and 21-36 (minus Austin Davis‘s three “starts”) when they didn’t. Behind them were Kutter Crawford, Josh Winckowski, Bello, Connor Seabold, Whitlock, and Tanner Houck.
Almost no team can handle four starters going down simultaneously for an extended period. But ten games over .500 with an inconsistent lineup, an atrocious bullpen, and not-so-good defense behind your four MLB starters is quite something.
Boston’s rotation depth is better headed into 2023. They have seven or eight MLB quality starters competing for five spots. Sale and James Paxton should be healthy now. Crawford proved he’s an MLB pitcher, and Bello too. Whitlock showed a glimpse of rotation dominance before his hip injury despite not being properly stretched out. A healthy Corey Kluber is a mid-rotation stabilizer at his best. Houck has stretched out as a starter though he will probably pitch everywhere. Pivetta is what he is.
Then there’s the minor-league depth: Winckowski, Bryan Mata, Brandon Walter, and Chris Murphy. The Sox’s minor league starter depth last year didn’t have this much upside, and it certainly wasn’t this deep. Same for their MLB rotation depth. There are more knowns now, some guys will be better prepared to start, and there’s more depth behind the rotation guys.
Still, there are more than a few concerns about the 2023 Red Sox pitching rotation. Sale and Paxton haven’t pitched much of anything in three years. Sale has pitched in rehab games, at least, unlike Paxton. Whitlock is coming off hip surgery and entering his first season in the Red Sox rotation. Bello has all the potential in the world but hasn’t started an entire MLB season. (Bello and Whitlock are still significant upgrades over whoever you want to equate them to from 2022.) Kluber had his first healthy season since 2018 last season, which is something to work with; however, it’s fair to question if he can do it again at 37.
Houck is coming off back surgery, but he is the least of their pitching problems.
Significant Upside Despite the Questions
There’s an upside to this rotation, but there are a lot of workloads to manage. A six-man rotation is not the best way to handle the starters’ workloads because it will strain the bullpen. You can’t have six starters go four or five innings early in the season and expect to win for long. If they do that, the bullpen will be gassed by August. Instead, Boston should use their starter depth to piggyback a couple of guys to save the bullpen on those days.
What those piggybacks might look like, who knows? But we know Paxton isn’t necessarily going to the bullpen. Given his injury and where he’s at in his career, the Red Sox don’t want to ask him to do something he hasn’t done before. It’s not out of the question Bello starts the season in Worcester’s rotation, as crazy as that sounds.
All questions aside, there’s more than enough reason to believe the 2023 Red Sox can win with this pitching rotation if the guys they need to be healthy stay relatively healthy. A significant reason being the Sox were ten games above .500 when their core starters pitched last year.
Another reason is better depth.
So… If Sale and Paxton make it out of spring training healthy and can give the Sox literally anything, that’s a boost. Whitlock pitched well in the rotation despite having a bum hip. Bello got better the more he pitched last season. There’s no reason to suspect he won’t be able to keep adjusting to MLB hitters. Kluber is the only starter other than Pivetta that pitched an entire season in an MLB rotation in 2022. Having Pivetta and Kluber as rotation stabilizers, with questions surrounding the other three starters, will go a long way.
This rotation will pitch differently than last year, too. Eovaldi allowed a ton of home runs, and Wacha and Hill weren’t pitchers that generated a lot of swing-and-miss and strikeouts. Whitlock throws strikes; Kluber limits walks, homers, and hard contact. Bello is a groundball pitcher with strikeout ability, and Sale knows how to pitch, even if he’s not vintage. He’ll figure it out.
Why Pitching Rotation Is Key to the 2023 Red Sox
I’m going to mention it again. It’s pretty impressive the 2022 Red Sox were ten games over .500 when the starters they relied on pitched, considering how inconsistent the lineup was, how bad the bullpen was, and how bad the outfield defense and first base defense were.
That bodes well for 2023.
The Red Sox now have a natural first baseman in Triston Casas.
Taking Enrique Hernandez, one of the best outfielders in the game, out of the outfield inevitably leads one to question the outfield. Masataka Yoshida isn’t known for his outfield defense, but Adam Duvall is a good outfielder anywhere, and Alex Verdugo will be fine in right field. Rob Refsnyder won’t embarrass them out there. And Raimel Tapia, signed to a minor league deal, is a fine outfielder, too.
The 2022 Sox lineup had a massive power outage (J.D. Martinez‘s and Xander Bogaerts‘ combined 31 home runs were the main culprits), and they couldn’t get on base or get the key hit to drive runners in. They still somehow finished in the top ten in runs scored.
None of the issues the 2022 offense faced should be a problem in 2023. Duvall can hit 31 home runs by himself if he stays healthy. Yoshida has power potential, and so does Casas. Rafael Devers can hit 30+ home runs with no problem on two good legs. Boston also added guys this offseason that can make contact and get on base. Yoshida, Casas, and Justin Turner are on-base machines. They and Verdugo won’t strike out much at all. Kike won’t strike out much, either.
The 2023 Red Sox lineup is a sneaky underrated lineup. Is it worse without Story than it would’ve been with him? Absolutely. Can it survive and score enough without him to win games? I think so.
The question then becomes: can this rotation keep games — especially low-scoring games — close enough for the offense to get leads and for the bullpen to lock those leads down? Because the Sox have a legit closer in Kenley Jansen (40 saves in 2022) and multiple setup options in Chris Martin, John Schreiber, and possibly Houck. Schreiber has more help this year. There are roles now; no more “pockets.” The bullpen will (yes, will) close out more wins than they blow.
Of course, pitching and defense tend to go hand in hand. The defense of the 2023 Red Sox is arguably better than in 2022. I’ve mentioned Casas and the outfield already. The infield defense shouldn’t drop off much, if at all. Devers is only getting better; Kike is probably a better shortstop than Bogey (did I say that?), and Christian Arroyo is a passable second baseman.
The pitching rotation is the key to the 2023 Red Sox’ hopes. If they can avoid losing four of five starters at once and perform to their capabilities, this team will surprise people.
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